Twenty passengers on missing flight 370 worked for Freescale Semiconductors

[dannyf]

"People are afraid of flying once a year and yet stuff 3000 Calories a day. How do you figure our human perception of risk and personal responsibility there?"

Risk evaluation is highly subjective: flying may be totally unacceptable to others but totally acceptable to you.

So it is entirely reasonable for different people to settle on different compromises yet both are optimal to their respective risk takers.

It is totally unreasonable to think that others risk compromises are wrong simply because they differ from your compromises.

[Kjelt]

What if this turns out to be wrong? What if indeed it is the plane? What about the family of the pilot or co-pilot blamed for this (and will have to go into hiding)? Or the airline?

The public has a hard time distinguishing fact from fiction. And it is becoming harder every day. Whatever surmises the researchers  have are theirs. Get the NTSB (or whomever the heck is responsible for these things in the area) to figure out what happened and leave the fuel for the conspiracy theories in the dark where it belongs.

I do not see your point if the agency discloses only the facts which is that the pilot trained this route on his simulator.
They should not judge or make other conclusions however it will fuel the discussion.
If you plee for withholding information to the public you are censoring. Perhaps in the mideval times the public were uneducated fools that easily could be manipulated today in this age almost all people are educated and can draw their own opinion and conclusions but not without objective information.

[Assafl]

"People are afraid of flying once a year and yet stuff 3000 Calories a day. How do you figure our human perception of risk and personal responsibility there?"

Risk evaluation is highly subjective: flying may be totally unacceptable to others but totally acceptable to you.

So it is entirely reasonable for different people to settle on different compromises yet both are optimal to their respective risk takers.

It is totally unreasonable to think that others risk compromises are wrong simply because they differ from your compromises.

Risk evaluation is a science. It is not subjective. It is based on evidence and statistics - and if not manipulated - pretty good at forecasting future statistics.

However, like most statistical based practices, it is highly counter-intuitive (especially for the public) and is also prone to changes over time (e.g. the inventions of seat belts and electronic traction control have changed car accident related statistics considerably).

The public has a tough time even grasping the (rather simple) difference between statistical correlation and demonstrating causality. Hence some people in the public really believe that being a Vegan makes you healthier... (of course - if they wouldn't have mistaken correlation with causality they would have asked to compare the health nuts in the Vegan and Non-vegan groups - numbers change considerably once the right question is asked...).

People in any case will make up their minds based on anything they want to. But dragging them through multiple stories will not help them focus on facts (when the flight went down on FB were like "terrorism", "fire", "fault", etc.; now with the German and Egyptian airliners, some people are now like "all the pilots are now committing suicide all over the world"). Why?

[Assafl]

Everything you say is 100%. Yet they do not know - hence - whatever they will say *now* can turn out to be wrong *later*. So they'd rather wait until they can have a clear - and as fact laden as possible - story. Facts are hard to turn to conspiracies (not that it is impossible - just harder).

As for insurance companies - The public's right to know is indeed being curtailed by insurance companies and government offices ALL-THE-TIME.

It is safe to walk in Oakland at night. We got rid of crime. This car is safe. Of course this medicine cures and is 100% risk free.

It is a double edged sword.

People are afraid of flying once a year and yet stuff 3000 Calories a day. How do you figure our human perception of risk and personal responsibility there? (and I am not talking marathon runners).

People are scared their kids will get hit by a car so they don't let them ride bikes. Yet a large size Ice Cream is great. (So now there are groups trying to promote riding sans-helmet as riding bikes makes the general kids population healthier - even at the risk of an odd injury from not wearing a helmet - crazy! - and they use actuary to prove they are right - and they indeed are).

People don't vaccinate their children. They don't. They think Louis Pasteur was a hoax by the government to control them or get money.

Perception is everything and those of actuary sciences discipline understand that and help compensate for public perception of risk by releasing only the requisite level of knowledge - and not a iota more.

And yes, as an intelligent being, I hate being included in with the other monkeys. But then again I am terrified of what these monkeys will do if they get to know ANYTHING. (See how easy it is for a group of intelligence officers from the baath party to manipulate some medieval thinking and make people do atrocious deeds. See how easy it is turning out to be to turn Turkey from a democracy to a dictatorship - just by getting people out of their house to fight *as if* for democracy - ironic really. As curious as I am - the disastrous results of humanities ability to cope with free access to all knowledge is simply not worth it.)

The thing reading back on that posted in which i never actually mentioned but was the main criteria i was trying to put across was Intent .

The deliberate intent way before any real information came out , the future perceived deliberate intent to mislead , a sick perverted planned intent imo .

See , when a accident or whatever happens like that there is compensation of a certain amount available to people/relatives/survivors , but when it is know there is proven pre-knowledge of impending doom that compensation rises dramatically and that was their intent , before the victims were even cold they had intent .

It would not surprise me that the Law will be fiddling around with the "Law" to alleviate costs even though people pay for it anyway (insurance/ticket fees / tax's) , scum .

imo of course .

100%!

FAA, IATA, NTSB and everyone else are aware of the implications of people deciding not to fly. Much of the product reliability that we all take for granted was based on the assumptions that planes falling are very bad for the global (and hence - generally speaking - for the local) economy. That ability to design highly redundant systems with failovers etc owes much thanks to that (just as food safety guys - think HACCP - can thank the space program).

Full intent is keeping the public flying. Now: Are shysters like insurance companies using this "governance" (call it "government" if you want it to sound conspiratorial) decree - to keep the public flying - to hide fault? Yes, that is intent as well. Unfortunate - but they will do what they can....

I am hopeful that the FAA and IATA and NTSB and whomever else will design better processes to keep these kamikaze pilots out of airliners; and if indeed the insurance company or airliner is at fault - put the responsible parties in jail.

I expect the FAA and NTSB (as well as the CDC and GAO and many others) to continue to be as close to 100% correct in anything they say as possible. They do not "think"; they "analyze"; they do not have "reasons to believe"; they verify. That is what keeps me (and I assume many others) flying.     

[Assafl]

Just spoke to a friend who is an airline pilot and he says that whomever did this was actually very calculated, turning off the systems in a specific sequence that does not disclose them being turned off; that he changed course right between towers so people won't look for him for some time, and more. He says Doppler from the Satellite carrying the Rolls Royce telemetry is the only way they have vague estimates of where they are - somewhere in the south Indian Ocean - a very bad area.

He is firmly on the bandwagon of intent by the Pilot (or someone else) - and says this was known for a very long time - at least in the industry.

Given the time it takes to find the proof, and due to geopolitical reasons (hence quiet from the authorities), it is now firmly in the hands of the insurance companies who are distributing their share of the pie.

This would make a nice TV Matinee movie....

[dannyf]

"He says Doppler from the Satellite carrying the Rolls Royce telemetry is the only way they have vague estimates of where they are"

Don't get onto his flight: the "pilot" friend of yours has no idea of wha he was talking about.

[donotdespisethesnake]

I'm fairly confident in saying that MH370 will probably never be found, and it's disappearance will remain a mystery. Planes go missing quite a lot : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_missing_aircraft, but MH370 is by far the one with highest number of passengers on board. Those reasons alone will mean it attracts a lot of attention, so perhaps one day some determined (and wealthy) searchers might find it. They managed to relocate the Titanic.

But overall, the disappearance of MH370 is mostly unprecedented. I guess no significant changes will result - unless such a similar thing happens again.

[ez24]

But overall, the disappearance of MH370 is mostly unprecedented. I guess no significant changes will result - unless such a similar thing happens again.

Aren't planes now tracked now?   How about phys evaluations for pilots?   Seems I have read those changes have or will be made (based also on the German plane)

[Assafl]

But overall, the disappearance of MH370 is mostly unprecedented. I guess no significant changes will result - unless such a similar thing happens again.

Airliners don't fall into the same type of statistics that cars fall into - it is enough that 1 occurrence happened for Boeing and others to make changes. Unfortunately, a pilot becoming deranged is a difficult situation to resolve (albeit there are ways - e.g. have a flight attendant fill in for the pilot - but even then remember Egypt Air where the Black Box showed that the Pilots were fighting each other). But one can prevent a situation where the fuses are taken out sequentially with no telemetry; that transponders can be disabled etc.

Engineers will add that to the millions of other safeguards that start with a 10$ rivet and will now end with telemetry for fuses.

Happy flying everyone. If too terrified, watch the Documentary Airplane!

 

 

[Kjelt]

Thinking of another point though, the planet is 70% oceans so it would make sense to release yellow or bright colour stuff on impact in water, enough so satelites could pick it up. That would not be too expensive, could also help with impacts on mountains since that sometimes seem to be equally difficult.

[donotdespisethesnake]

But overall, the disappearance of MH370 is mostly unprecedented. I guess no significant changes will result - unless such a similar thing happens again.

Airliners don't fall into the same type of statistics that cars fall into - it is enough that 1 occurrence happened for Boeing and others to make changes.

Unfortunately not. Accident investigators frequently make lots of recommendations which are then routinely ignored. For example, after AF447 BEA recommended better flight tracking which was ignored. If the airline industry says "that's too expensive!" nothing gets done.

Sure there are minor tinkering like adjustments to training, or getting cabin crew to act as door guards, but it is generally regarded among pilots that these are window dressing and do nothing about the fundamental issues.

ICAO are recommending that airplanes have real-time tracking by 2020 or something, but ICAO have no legal authority and it would require member states to make it mandatory.

Generally speaking, pilots are trusted to fly and navigate safely and they are the ones solely responsible for the plane while it is in the air, and I don't expect that to change despite the quite rare cases of pilot murder-suicide.

[EEVblog]

Malaysia have now admitted it:
http://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2016-08-05/malaysia-confirms-flight-370-course-was-on-pilots-simulator

[Macbeth]

I bought Microsoft Flight Simulator X a couple of years ago on Steam and it runs like a stuck pig. Totally incompatible with any modern graphic card. But take it out of highly populated cities and out on to open seas and it's ok. Maybe he was just as pissed off as I was with trying to do a twin-towers re-run or my Austrian holiday landing at Innsbruck and went out to the open sea to flex his wings?

[SkyMaster]

Unfortunately not. Accident investigators frequently make lots of recommendations which are then routinely ignored. For example, after AF447 BEA recommended better flight tracking which was ignored. If the airline industry says "that's too expensive!" nothing gets done.

SNIP

ICAO are recommending that airplanes have real-time tracking by 2020 or something, but ICAO have no legal authority and it would require member states to make it mandatory.

Real-time tracking will never prevent an accident.

Real-time tracking could allow the investigators to quickly find the wreckage.

But unless I am mistaken, Real-time tracking would not improve safety.

 

[Kjelt]

And two news items within 24 hours about MH370

The latest search action will be stopped next week:
https://home.bt.com/news/world-news/search-for-missing-mh370-plane-to-end-next-week-says-malaysia-11364273667980

Doubt if pilot deliberately crashed the plane:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-44216778

[donotdespisethesnake]

Real-time tracking will never prevent an accident.

Real-time tracking could allow the investigators to quickly find the wreckage.

But unless I am mistaken, Real-time tracking would not improve safety.

Faith based dogmatic predictions about an unknown future are hardly worth responding to. There is at least one recent accident where real-time tracking would have prevented it occurring, so you are clearly mistaken.

On MH370, the potential search area is too vast to search completely, I guess it will go down as one of the great aviation mysteries. They had a reasonable fix on AF447 but it took a few attempts to find it. Unless some billionaire decides to stump up the money for an exhaustive search, the evidence that might definitively explain the disappearance will stay on the bottom of the sea bed. In the meantime, speculation and conspiracy theories will dominate.

[SkyMaster]

Real-time tracking will never prevent an accident.

Real-time tracking could allow the investigators to quickly find the wreckage.

But unless I am mistaken, Real-time tracking would not improve safety.

Faith based dogmatic predictions about an unknown future are hardly worth responding to. There is at least one recent accident where real-time tracking would have prevented it occurring, so you are clearly mistaken.

And what is this accident that could have been prevented?

 

[coppercone2]

does anyone wanna see lost with a bunch of electrical engineers?

maybe they are having fun in another dimension

[Kjelt]

does anyone wanna see lost with a bunch of electrical engineers?

maybe they are having fun in another dimension

Their families have a lot of grief and can't bury their loved ones, some can't have disclosure, this could have a serious psychological impact on that family for a couple of generations.
How I know? My grandmothers brother dissapeared in a submarine in WW2 never found until end of the 80s when it was found by sonar. It ran on a frienly UK minefiled that was laid a week before. Anyhow it is terrible to loose someone and not knowing what happened or be able to bury them, the moarning period can last a long longer time.

[Psi]

does anyone wanna see lost with a bunch of electrical engineers?

maybe they are having fun in another dimension

i want to see a documentary where 10 engineers are given $50k each to fill up a shipping container with whatever they want.
Then they all get dumped on a deserted island along with their 10 shipping containers and the documentary begins.
No survivor style games or competitions, ya just let them build/hack/play with all the gear and supplies they brought.

[LaserSteve]

make your list...
I want to see what you'd pack with 50K...
Steve