It's true that the current electricity generating structure cannot function without fossil fuel generating plants. In theory, with enough large scale storage (pumped hydro, molten salt?) you could create a functioning, reliable grid based solely on renewables - but reality is different. Will we ever get there? No - and here's why:
The current state of the world, economically, technologically, politically is completely dependent on the energy density and portability of fossil fuels. We cannot have business as usual without them - and eventually we won't. We cannot sustain a world population of 7+ billion without them. And eventually we won't.
And here's the rub - we cannot entirely replace fossil fuels- even just for electricity production - without the excess energy
available to society that they provide. Building solar panels, windmills, tidal generating stations and nuclear plants requires oil - and lots of it - not just for the mining, refining, transportations and manufacturing of the materials required - but also for the capital to be available for the build out. The oil must be cheap for the build out - but also expensive for it to make economic sense for private industry to do it.
We're in an
Energy TrapFossil fuels are a finite resource and oil, in particular, is the keystone commodity needed to keep the current state of affairs in order. It a complicated set of feedback loops that keeps the current system (including electricity production) afloat.
Conventional oil production has been in a plateau since 2005. Tight oil from the US is entirely responsible for the increase in worldwide production since then. But this oil is costly to extract and has a much lower net energy yield. Shale oil wells have a short lifespan and constant (expensive) new drilling is required just to keep pace. This drilling is financed by cheap debt (thanks to central bankers) which can only be paid back if oil prices stay high.
Without cheap oil the economy can't grow, but without expensive oil production cannot grow and demand stalls or declines. This has led to the current price crash. Production can't decline fast enough to keep pace (debt needs to be paid back!) - but it will and prices may rise again some but will there be the same cheap financing available the next time after the junk bond defaults from this go round?
With each iteration the situation will get more dire. This is what happens when a finite resource is peaking but because it is happening with oil - THE keystone resource of our current civilization - the impact will be huge.
It's not a matter of if but when. When is impossible to predict. There's an
an argument to be made that the current decline in oil prices is a harbinger of a near term collapse due to it's interdependence with the world financial system. And there's
a case to be made that in 2012 a tipping point was reached thermodynamically whereby oil production has gone from an energy source to an energy sink.
Now this is an engineering forum so I'm sure many here will insist that there is a technological solution to this problem. Perhaps there will be - (cold fusion?) I hope there is- but I don't think so. The necessary large scale technological advancement itself depends on the resources of our system as it currently exists. It would require long term thinking and political will - both of which are in short supply.
I don't know when it all falls apart. Maybe not in my lifetime - but certainly within my young children lifetimes. I hope I'm wrong.
That's it for your dally doom and gloom report. Carry on....