Solid state batteries, vaporware or the future of electric vehicles?

[aabbcc]

So solid state batteries, are they the future of electric car batteries or simply vaporware atm?

For example the company Quantumscape is a specializing in these together in partnership with Volkswagen, they recently held a presentation where they showcase data from the batteries which seems too good to be true? Albeit these won't be in production until 4-5 years from now.



Would be interesting to see Dave do a breakdown of this.

[mikeselectricstuff]

The question is where will Tesla be by the time this gets into production, if it does.

[nctnico]

Tesla will be dwarfed in a couple of years by other manufacturers if they aren't already. Volkswagen alone has a production capacity for their ID.3 and ID.4 models of nearly 1 million units a year. That is more than Tesla can currently produce for all it's models! Tesla's new 'gigafactory' near Berlin is a mini factory in reality.

[mikeselectricstuff]

Tesla will be dwarfed in a couple of years by other manufacturers if they aren't already. Volkswagen alone has a production capacity for their ID.3 and ID.4 models of nearly 1 million units a year. That is more than Tesla can currently produce for all it's models! Tesla's new 'gigafactory' near Berlin is a mini factory in reality.

But it's by no means all about production capacity. Even VW acknowledge that Tesla are years ahead, and are open that they have no choice but to ship cars with beta software.
Most legacy automakers are just too late into the game to ever be able to catch up, and too weighed down with their ICE baggage. 
Look at Toyota, who are still in deep denial, having missed the opportunity to capitalise on their early expertise in electric drivetrains and instead just kept on putting them in petrol-powered cars and pushing their "self-charging" bullshit.

[nctnico]

Tesla will be dwarfed in a couple of years by other manufacturers if they aren't already. Volkswagen alone has a production capacity for their ID.3 and ID.4 models of nearly 1 million units a year. That is more than Tesla can currently produce for all it's models! Tesla's new 'gigafactory' near Berlin is a mini factory in reality.

But it's by no means all about production capacity. Even VW acknowledge that Tesla are years ahead, and are open that they have no choice but to ship cars with beta software.

Yes and no. Tesla has huge problems getting the quality of their cars to a satisfactory level. Tesla is consistently in the lowest ranks where it comes to reliability. Not to mention lack of service. IMHO VW has set the bar for themselves way too high by adding so many gadgets to their electric cars. They would have sold them anyway.

[MtB_Chris]

History might tell some stories :

Pb-acid: 2V, ED 30-40 Wh/kg, 1859

Ni-Cd, 1.2V 40-60Wh/kg, 1899

Ni-metal Hydride,1,2V, 60-120Wh/kg ,1967 (NiMh)

Li-ion, 3,7V, 150-270Wh/kg, 1970’s

SSB ... 2020 to 30s ?
Anyway, gel electrolytes batteries should be available a few years prior to full SSB.
And Li Ion still has room to improve on the Cathode - Anode - Electrolyte with carry-over potential to SSB.

[Siwastaja]

Every day dozens of "breakthroughs" emerge. 0.01% end up actually being something. This can only be seen in retrospec. Though, being a startup with nice-looking PR material is almost 100.0000% sign it's a con.

To be fair, it's most likely one of the big players with big R&D (think about Panasonic, more recently Samsung, or even more recently Tesla) make the best progress. It's always possible a small startup or a university doing research comes up with the killer recipe (which then takes 5 to 20 years to make into production), but the odds when seeing a press release is in ppm range.

"Solid state" refers to using solid electrolyte. Yes, we all agree the flammable organic solvent in li-ion batteries sucks, but there is lot more to batteries than just the state of the electrolyte being solid or liquid. Solid electrolyte li-ion was a big research subject in 1990's, it never worked out commercially but the term "LiPo" originally coined to describe it was repurposed by marketing to describe bog standard wet electrolyte cells.

If a significantly better "breakthrough" battery emerges, it may or may not have solid electrolyte, only the result matters, and this is measured on being actually manufacturable, $/kWh, calendar fading and cycle life, $/kWh per product lifetime, Wh/kg, W/kg, and sometimes Wh/dm^3 and W/dm^3.

A significant part of solid electrolyte "not working out" is due to the fact that liquid electrolyte is working quite fine. Solid version would need to be significantly better.

[tszaboo]

Tesla will be dwarfed in a couple of years by other manufacturers if they aren't already. Volkswagen alone has a production capacity for their ID.3 and ID.4 models of nearly 1 million units a year. That is more than Tesla can currently produce for all it's models! Tesla's new 'gigafactory' near Berlin is a mini factory in reality.

But it's by no means all about production capacity. Even VW acknowledge that Tesla are years ahead, and are open that they have no choice but to ship cars with beta software.
Most legacy automakers are just too late into the game to ever be able to catch up, and too weighed down with their ICE baggage. 
Look at Toyota, who are still in deep denial, having missed the opportunity to capitalise on their early expertise in electric drivetrains and instead just kept on putting them in petrol-powered cars and pushing their "self-charging" bullshit.

Toyota next year, they should introduce an EV with solid state battery. They are 3-4 years away from deploying it on their entire fleet.  They have the technology for EVs, including the engine and the inverter. The Lexus LS xxxh had an electric engine larger than the VW ID for years. They also have the UX300e.

Tesla shares will correct when they introduce the electric Corolla. I wouldn't be surprised if the price of it would be cheaper than the ICE.
So yes, solid state is a big deal, it will level the playing field and make all the existing EVs obsolete.

[wraper]

Toyota next year, they should introduce an EV with solid state battery. They are 3-4 years away from deploying it on their entire fleet.  They have the technology for EVs, including the engine and the inverter. The Lexus LS xxxh had an electric engine larger than the VW ID for years. They also have the UX300e.

They are supposed to show some prototype next year. Claiming it will be deployed in a few years to entire fleet is a big exaggeration. Probably they will only start to deploy it to any production cars by then.
EDIT: https://www.motortrend.com/news/toyota-solid-state-battery-ev-2021/

Toyota's announcement of its upcoming Euro-market electric SUV included the note that the company plans to have solid-state battery technology in its production vehicles by 2025.

So yeah, they only plan to start actually using it by 2025.

[tszaboo]

Toyota next year, they should introduce an EV with solid state battery. They are 3-4 years away from deploying it on their entire fleet.  They have the technology for EVs, including the engine and the inverter. The Lexus LS xxxh had an electric engine larger than the VW ID for years. They also have the UX300e.

They are supposed to show some prototype next year. Claiming it will be deployed in a few years to entire fleet is a big exaggeration. Probably they will only start to deploy it to any production cars by then.
EDIT: https://www.motortrend.com/news/toyota-solid-state-battery-ev-2021/

Toyota's announcement of its upcoming Euro-market electric SUV included the note that the company plans to have solid-state battery technology in its production vehicles by 2025.

So yeah, they only plan to start actually using it by 2025.

They keep moving the goalpost. The last information I remember is this: they want to sell 5.5 million cars by 2025 and have EVs as an option in their entire lineup. Maybe they will start making them with regular Li-Ion, and switch over to solid state?
I went through 3 articles quickly and read 3 different things 

[wraper]

Tesla shares will correct when they introduce the electric Corolla.

In a decade? Next year we in Europe will have Model Y with 4680 cells, structural battery and cast frame.

[wraper]

They keep moving the goalpost. The last information I remember is this: they want to sell 5.5 million cars by 2025 and have EVs as an option in their entire lineup. Maybe they will start making them with regular Li-Ion, and switch over to solid state?
I went through 3 articles quickly and read 3 different things 

Those news are from 8 days ago, did Toyota move their goalpost in a few days?

[coppice]

IMHO VW has set the bar for themselves way too high by adding so many gadgets to their electric cars. They would have sold them anyway.

The ID.3 and ID.4 cars VW have offered so far are launch versions, fully loaded with all the bells and whistles. They have said that they will be offering lower spec'd versions as they ramp up. Everyone seems to be doing this as they launch radically new car models these days. Pretty much the only cars now launched with a broad selection of variants are refreshes.

[wraper]

I read some news. Toyota misleading claim is that sales of  electrified ^* vehicles could reach 5.5 million in 2025,
*electrified vehicles, including hybrid and plug-in hybrid and hydrogen.
Remember their state of the art "self charging hybrid". 
 

[tszaboo]

They keep moving the goalpost. The last information I remember is this: they want to sell 5.5 million cars by 2025 and have EVs as an option in their entire lineup. Maybe they will start making them with regular Li-Ion, and switch over to solid state?
I went through 3 articles quickly and read 3 different things 

Those news are from 8 days ago, did Toyota move their goalpost in a few days?

I guess. Japanese companies sometimes do this, they dont talk internally.
https://www.motorbiscuit.com/watch-out-tesla-toyota-just-sent-a-strong-message-to-the-ev-world/

Toyota’s Deputy Chief mentioned that he intends for Toyota to sell at least 5.5 million EVs a year globally by 2025.

So now it's 5.5 million a year? I guess it is a combination of translation error, internal communication (lack of), and news sites repeating old information.
Anyway, they are ding something (yay), and they have an electric platform.

Dont trash those hybrid cars, they are much more fuel efficient than regular ICE.

[coppice]

For example the company Quantumscape is a specializing in these together in partnership with Volkswagen, they recently held a presentation where they showcase data from the batteries which seems too good to be true? Albeit these won't be in production until 4-5 years from now.

When something is 4-5 years from production that usually means they have some interesting working prototypes in the lab, but haven't figured out how to mass produce the things in volume at reasonable cost. That seems to be the state for everyone working on solid state batteries right now. Their performance looks very promising, but translating a prototype into a volume production item doesn't always work out well. Sometimes things can be made, but unforeseen long term degradation or failure modes cause products to be withdrawn. I can't imagine any car maker is betting their future on solid state batteries right now. They will be preparing supply chains for both current lithium and solid state options...... and trying hard to get someone else to bare the financial burden of the chain that gets dumped.

[Siwastaja]

The biggest challenges new battery technologies try to address are, approximately in this order:
1) Price
2) Energy density

Current liquid electrolyte of the state-of-the-art li-ion cells is neither a large component in price, nor a significant part of the weight.

Even coming up with an imaginary, ideal solid-state replacement weighless electrolyte with zero cost wouldn't translate into battery breakthrough. Both material cost and weight is dominated by the anode, cathode and current collector materials.

The only thing this "solid state" talk is, it's a lithmus test to reveal people who have absolutely no idea what they are talking about (as evidenced in this thread, as well).

Also, don't we all know that Toyota's a joke? It's supposed to be a joke, right? Does someone take their decades-long hydrogen speak and now "self-charging hybrid" seriously?

[coppice]

Toyota’s Deputy Chief mentioned that he intends for Toyota to sell at least 5.5 million EVs a year globally by 2025.

So now it's 5.5 million a year? I guess it is a combination of translation error, internal communication (lack of), and news sites repeating old information.
Anyway, they are ding something (yay), and they have an electric platform.

When did you last see a journalist accurately report what their sources said?

Dont trash those hybrid cars, they are much more fuel efficient than regular ICE.

I agree. People have been so whiny about those ads. They clearly describe, in a couple of sentances, what the car actually offers, and a Toyota Atkinson engine plus hybrid drive achieves a fuel efficiency like most diesel cars, but with lower pollutant output.

[wraper]

Dont trash those hybrid cars, they are much more fuel efficient than regular ICE.

It's not about trashing hybrids. It's about their marketing. BTW their bullshit was banned in Norway. https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a30675773/norway-lexus-commercial-self-charging-hybrid/

Lexus pulls ad claiming battery charging is free on hybrids, but it stands by its claim that "self charging" is exactly what a gasoline-electric hybrid does when it recharges the battery while you drive.

So now it's 5.5 million a year? I guess it is a combination of translation error, internal communication (lack of), and news sites repeating old information.

Yeah, except they are not electric cars.

[tszaboo]

For example the company Quantumscape is a specializing in these together in partnership with Volkswagen, they recently held a presentation where they showcase data from the batteries which seems too good to be true? Albeit these won't be in production until 4-5 years from now.

When something is 4-5 years from production that usually means they have some interesting working prototypes in the lab, but haven't figured out how to mass produce the things in volume at reasonable cost.

Mercedes already sells a bus with it. Bus is easy, you dont have to integrate it, as it is just a "box of batteries":
https://media.daimler.com/marsMediaSite/en/instance/ko/Immediately-before-the-rollout-the-new-fully-electric-articulated-bus-the-Mercedes-Benz-eCitaro-G-with-innovative-solid-state-batteries.xhtml?oid=47447805

The biggest challenges new battery technologies try to address are, approximately in this order:
1) Price
2) Energy density

Current liquid electrolyte of the state-of-the-art li-ion cells is neither a large component in price, nor a significant part of the weight.

With solid state, you can create a 48V battery pack in one package. Similar to Lead-acid. No housing between cells. No BMS per cell. No separate formation of 3.6V cells. You are smart enough to figure out the rest. Energy density ~2x, price ~1/2.

When did you last see a journalist accurately report what their sources said?

I agree. People have been so whiny about those ads. They clearly describe, in a couple of sentances, what the car actually offers, and a Toyota Atkinson engine plus hybrid drive achieves a fuel efficiency like most diesel cars, but with lower pollutant output.

Never really. Yeah, the ads are BS. At least people stopped telling me to plug in my Prius. I guess, the first approach "assume people will understand" didn't work.

[coppice]

Mercedes already sells a bus with it. Bus is easy, you dont have to integrate it, as it is just a "box of batteries":
https://media.daimler.com/marsMediaSite/en/instance/ko/Immediately-before-the-rollout-the-new-fully-electric-articulated-bus-the-Mercedes-Benz-eCitaro-G-with-innovative-solid-state-batteries.xhtml?oid=47447805

That's not very impressive. The solid state option has only 10% more capacity that the lithium ion option (the article says 25%, but that's comparing the new solid state battery with an older generation of lithium ion), and cannot be charged quickly. Fast charging is one of the key benefits claimed for most solid state batteries. I couldn't find a mention of prices for the 2 battery options.

Those buses put the battery packs on top of the bus. That's an odd place to put so much weight. Buses are usually designed to keep the C of G really low.

[james_s]

I agree. People have been so whiny about those ads. They clearly describe, in a couple of sentances, what the car actually offers, and a Toyota Atkinson engine plus hybrid drive achieves a fuel efficiency like most diesel cars, but with lower pollutant output.

My partner has a Toyota Prius. It has been exceptionally reliable and it achieves the specified fuel economy, but it is the most boring and soul-less car I have ever driven, it is the very definition of a transportation appliance. It feels ok around town but as soon as you need to accelerate up a hill on the freeway or somewhere else with a relatively high speed limit it just falls flat. My friend has a VW TDI that I have also driven and it is a far superior experience in my opinion. It feels peppy and has good torque, even in higher gears. I've driven several pure EVs that impressed me though, much more interesting than the hybrid and quieter than the turbo diesel.

[james_s]

That's not very impressive. The solid state option has only 10% more capacity that the lithium ion option (the article says 25%, but that's comparing the new solid state battery with an older generation of lithium ion), and cannot be charged quickly. Fast charging is one of the key benefits claimed for most solid state batteries. I couldn't find a mention of prices for the 2 battery options.

Those buses put the battery packs on top of the bus. That's an odd place to put so much weight. Buses are usually designed to keep the C of G really low.

What I'm interested in is cycle life, degradation at elevated temperatures or from sitting in a fully charged state, safety and replacement cost. Fast charging has applications but it isn't something I personally care about.

Putting batteries on the top of the bus does seem like an odd choice, but I'm reasonably confident that the engineers know what they're doing and will design the bus so that the CG is in an appropriate location for it to handle safely. Perhaps they can sufficiently reduce the weight of the upper body structure through the use of modern materials to compensate for the weight of the batteries.