The theory that small explosive charges were set off by a coded pager message has some major problems, in my opinion:
1) Explosives are easy to detect at airports with dogs and chemical analyzers. Why would Israeli security forces take such a big risk? The chances of one of thousands of pagers being caught over six months are just too high to gamble with.
2) If Hezbollah militants were the target, the plan simply didn’t work. Most victims only had minor burns and soft tissue injuries, with only a few fatalities reported out of thousands of pager users.
3) The explosions all happened within 10 minutes, but not at the same time. If the detonations were triggered by a coded pager message, why didn’t they go off simultaneously?
Using Occam’s razor, a simpler explanation makes more sense to me - thermal runaway of lithium batteries.
Here’s how it could have happened: the batteries had rigged BMS that caused a short circuit, and the batteries’ safety valves were probably disabled or clogged too. Also there wasn’t a trigger message - these explosions were on a timer. A variation of +/- 5 minutes over six months would approximately match the 20 ppm tolerance of a typical 32,768 Hz crystal. And the goal wasn’t to target users but to disrupt enemy communications by destroying their devices (pagers and later radios).
1) are cargo pallets scanned that thoroughly as well?
2) it did work, it put heavy load on services and exposed lack of trust in supply chain that needs addressing. Plus it disrupted communications for some time. Maybe even days.
3) Here in NL we have a cell broadcast emergency messages and these do not all trigger at the same time. Sometimes minutes later.
I would assume pagers get network time?
Pagers work on a radio communication system separate from GSM/3G/4G. These ones are specifically:
https://www.cryptomuseum.com/covert/radio/apollo/ar924/
You normally cannot address them the same way as a phone. It's not as simple as sending an SMS. Or calling an API over the internet. Sending messages is typically you need VPN access, use obscure software on specific computers. Then there is a separate array of transmitters. There are broadcast messages in these systems, but it al depends on the specific settings they used. There is no encryption. The whole system could be guarded, and air gapped. Which would still be possible to access with people in key positions, but let's look further.
They also exploded CB radios. Those have limited range, 15-20 Km max. Unless they had many operatives simultaneously doing it in key positions, with tweaked radios, I find that very unlikely to be able to send messages.
So here is how you do it the simple way: You fly an
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EL/W-2085 on your border, and transmit whatever you want at whatever distance with phased array.
I find it disturbing that on an electronics forum, people are just guessing without a very basic understanding how these electronics devices are supposed to work, or even spending 5 minutes doing some research. Not you specifically. Occam's razor and such.
And BTW using the pager network for "secure communications" is so foolish. A child with an SDR can decode those messages.