Tesla Model S, Third Fire

[free_electron]

Hmm. Maybe the tegra processors are in there.

We'll find out soon enough right?  The teardown is currently in progress?

sorry,bub. i don't wanna void my 8 year end-to-end warranty …

Here is another little thing to think about…

Tesla currently builds 600 cars a week. using a two shift ( morning and afternoon ) on a 5 day workweek ( no production saturday or sunday )
every single car that rolls of the line was SOLD 2 months ago… current waiting time is 9 weeks.

Tesla shifts 60 million dollar inventory in a week ! with zero backstock.

Go take a look at the parking lots of the traditional car makers and car dealers. There are tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands of cars waiting for someone to buy them. Cars costing 1/5th of a Tesla.

Chevy is sitting on a huge inventory of unsold Volts .. they had to knock off 5000$ of the price to be able to move some. it is estimated that over 10.000 volts are sitting in dealer parking lots and at GM central storage , waiting for a buyer…

Numbers for the month September:
Nissan Leaf : 1953 cars
Chevy Volt : 1766
Tesla : given they make 600 a week with no backlog : 4 weeks x 600 cars = 2400 cars … Ok, some may have gone overseas… but still. this thing costs 3 to 4 times the price of a volt or leaf.
 
Tesla also announced last week they invest 435 million dollar to build line-2. their second production line and is going to hire 120 additional people for their factory

it only makes me wonder ...

[dr.diesel]

it only makes me wonder ...

How much you bet GM/Ford/Toyota have one themselves, in pieces, stealing ideas?

Somebody still need to make a stripped down $30-40k model, perhaps that is what Tesla has up their sleeves?

[tom66]

It's been estimated that the 85kWh battery pack costs $17k. Musk let it slip that it costs "less than 1/3rd" of $45k. That's ~$200/kWh.

No wonder everyone is coming to Tesla for batteries. Their technology using commodity cells obviously is a lot cheaper than what any other company can produce. Couple that with a powerful drivetrain and cooling system and I can see a $35k, 250 mile car being a reality, and a future Model S having over 500 mile range. Tesla has patents on a mixed zinc-air lithium ion system allowing for 250kWh battery packs. That's over 1,000 miles at about the same cost as the Model S pack. At that point who cares if it takes 2~3 hours to recharge from a 120kW supercharger.

I think once you get over 400 miles for $30~35k gas cars will be history. No way to compete except in the econobox section.  But even they could be replaced by cheap 100 mile cars.

Clearly they are getting a little worried -- recent spot from Exxon, although it mentions alternative fuels it also compares the gasoline energy to that of a smartphone battery
http://www.ispot.tv/ad/76i8/exxon-mobil-one-gallon-of-gas

I don't think they need to worry for the next 10 years but after then they had better have diversified or they're done for.

[free_electron]

it only makes me wonder ...

How much you bet GM/Ford/Toyota have one themselves, in pieces, stealing ideas?

Somebody still need to make a stripped down $30-40k model, perhaps that is what Tesla has up their sleeves?

you can bet top dollar that all other car makers have several Tesla's that are being studied very very carefully and very nervously.

Tesla has announced last week they will show the Model E ( E for everyone ) at the Detroit Motor show in 2015. Talk about balls of steel showing it off in 'motor city' ...

Experts in batteries estimate that the cost of the battery in the Leaf is on the order of 500$ per kilowatt/hour. The Tela pack is in the order of 180$ to 200$ per kilowatt/hour …

LG has been approved as second source. and Panasonic will build a gigantic factory , in the US, to produce the cells for Tesla. Tesla placed an order for 2 BILLION cells for the next 2 years…

Solarcity alo started deploying batterypacks for home power. solar panel + a solarcity battery pack driven by Tesla technology

http://www.solarcity.com/residential/energy-storage.aspx

The cell chemistry and cell construction , even though they use the clasic 18650 form factor, is Tesla proprietary. It is a modified lithium ion chemistry with some unique properties. there is a patent describing cell construction that includes a drawign of a classic cell and the tesla cell… biiig difference.

[tom66]

Apparently Model S demand alone is approx 8% of world total supply. That's insane.

I do wonder if large cells e.g. 26650 will be later considered because of lower cost and greater pack capacity. These cells are still standard and with enough demand the economies of scale would put them at similar price to 18650 but with lower assembly cost.

Large format cells are unlikely to be popular until they fall in price, at the moment they are significantly more expensive per Wh than 18650 form factor (e.x. Nissan Leaf pack.)

[Corporate666]

Hmm. Maybe the tegra processors are in there.

We'll find out soon enough right?  The teardown is currently in progress?

sorry,bub. i don't wanna void my 8 year end-to-end warranty …

Here is another little thing to think about…

Tesla currently builds 600 cars a week. using a two shift ( morning and afternoon ) on a 5 day workweek ( no production saturday or sunday )
every single car that rolls of the line was SOLD 2 months ago… current waiting time is 9 weeks.

Tesla shifts 60 million dollar inventory in a week ! with zero backstock.

Go take a look at the parking lots of the traditional car makers and car dealers. There are tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands of cars waiting for someone to buy them. Cars costing 1/5th of a Tesla.

Chevy is sitting on a huge inventory of unsold Volts .. they had to knock off 5000$ of the price to be able to move some. it is estimated that over 10.000 volts are sitting in dealer parking lots and at GM central storage , waiting for a buyer…

Numbers for the month September:
Nissan Leaf : 1953 cars
Chevy Volt : 1766
Tesla : given they make 600 a week with no backlog : 4 weeks x 600 cars = 2400 cars … Ok, some may have gone overseas… but still. this thing costs 3 to 4 times the price of a volt or leaf.
 
Tesla also announced last week they invest 435 million dollar to build line-2. their second production line and is going to hire 120 additional people for their factory

it only makes me wonder ...

I love your enthusiasm for the Tesla - it's very refreshing to read people who are genuinely in love with the car they bought - fantastic!  That it is an American company using American tech who is building this is even more fantastic.

I am constantly amazed at how negative so many folks are on EV's... they are the future and the USA is leading the pack, and amazingly, it's the Japanese who have fallen into last place in this game. 

[tom66]

Japan is hardly doing badly here -- Panasonic just got an order for over 1.8bn cells...

[free_electron]

That is another thing. Car makers keep harping on about how expensive it is to build in the USA.

Here is a new car maker that sets up shop , not only in California, but in Silicon Valley. Talk about a price premium.... Real estate is extremely expensive, labor cost and all the other cost.

90% of the car is BUILT in the Fremont factor.y They have their own aluminum smelting facility to make the die-cast undercarriage and support beams, they stamp their own parts from huge rolls of aluminum alloy. they cast all their own plastic parts. They cast the motor stator, hand insert the copper bars for windings, they turn their own rotor on lathes. They make their own wiring harnesses, assemble some of the circuit boards themselves. The only things being bought are the glass, the tires , the steering column, and the seats ( Made in Australia ! ). Raw materials like carpet and upholstery fabric are all US made.

the car is built in one of the highest cost area's in the world, and they are still profitable.

Every other car maker out there claims they are nuts and that it is impossible to build a car in california due to the labor and real estate costs. parts gotta be bought in china to reduce cost...

Something doesn't line up here ...


GM is on the verge of bankruptcy... again ... even after the bailout they got 3 years ago. ...
Tesla is the ONLY one that repaid their loan in full, and they repaid it early... the others are still deep in the red.

It is new technology, new idea's, new business model. Will it work ? time will tell.

The only thing we know is that the old model doesn't work , not anymore.

[dr.diesel]

I am constantly amazed at how negative so many folks are on EV's...

Agreed, I hate to think that people are genuinely against a cleaner/safer/better future.  However, I am firmly against government subsidies, especially on a luxury vehicle.

I will admit though (don't tell anybody), if the government is gonna print money and give it away, might as well be worth it, ie EVs.

[free_electron]

Keep in mind the government does NOT give EV buyers money ! It only reduces the taxes they owe.

That is NOT the same as giving us money.

They return part of the money we already gave the government.

I get a 7500 $ tax rebate. That is 7500$ I already GAVE the government. If i only gave the government 2000$ in taxes i would only have gotten 2000$ back.
It does not come out of someone else's pocket. It came out of my pocket. It is money i earned. The government only tells us: you buy an electric car and wanna take care of the future of our planet ? we will reduce the amount we take out of your paycheck.
Any EV car qualifies.

[dr.diesel]

In a deficit situation, it's less money that goes somewhere else, or more money they print, which causes inflation, which means I have to pay more, which means it comes out of my pocket! Government entitlements most definitely cost, and cost everyone, in one way or another.

I understand why you state it like you do, we'll have to agree to somewhat disagree.   

[tom66]

Gas cars lead to war (Iraq), expensive diplomacy missions (middle east), pollution (causing thousands of deaths a year, and requiring expense to sort out), etc.

EVs do not.

This has to be worth at least some credit.

[free_electron]

In a deficit situation, it's less money that goes somewhere else, or more money they print, which causes inflation, which means I

and EV owners likewise

have to pay more, which means it comes out of my

and EV owners

pocket! Government entitlements most definitely cost, and cost everyone

including EV owners

, in one way or another.

There, now it is politically correct

besides, government gave big bailouts to ICE car makers. that ALSO comes out of your, and EV owners pockets ! we don't have a peep to say about that ! They did the same with Freddie Mac and Fannie May , spent billions of dollars on Iraq and afganistan.

What is returned (not given ! returned. they paid it first)  to EV buyers is a drop in the bucket.

[nctnico]

That is another thing. Car makers keep harping on about how expensive it is to build in the USA.

Here is a new car maker that sets up shop , not only in California, but in Silicon Valley. Talk about a price premium.... Real estate is extremely expensive, labor cost and all the other cost.

I hate to burst your bubble but Tesla clearly aims to sell their cars as a toy for rich people. Most of their stores are located in shopping areas where people go in their Porsches, Ferraris, Bentleys etc. Tesla is the Apple amongst the car makers. The price doesn't really matter so they can produce in relative expensive areas. If you take a close look at the Model-S' chassis you can see it has not (yet) been optimised much for mass production (millions of cars per year). The design of the suspension and so on is also pretty standard.

As soon as Tesla has paved the way to make the batteries significantly cheaper and better you'll see Toyota, BMW, Volkswagen, etc come up with affordable EVs real quick. Each of these manufacturers has the knowledge to make an EV. They just wait until the batteries become available or bio-fuel turns out to be a better option. Going all EV is too big a gamble at this moment.

[tom66]

I have a feeling the main concern other automakers have is satisfying their dealer network with low maintenance electrics. Dealers make only around 3-5% profit on each car sold off the lot. The good stuff comes from the various service plans which won't be suitable for all-electric vehicles...

Electric car service yearly: Top up wiper fluid (maybe not with ultrasonic windshield option), check systems, wash car.  Every 100k miles: service/replace brakes.

[TopLoser]

As soon as Tesla has paved the way to make the batteries significantly cheaper and better you'll see Toyota, BMW, Volkswagen, etc come up with affordable EVs real quick.

And Mercedes, Toyota, BMW, Volkswagen haven't had the resources to pave the way already? Oh,  and 'real quick' with automobiles doesn't happen by the way!

Credit to first movers, Tesla have stormed ahead.

[zapta]

Here is a new car maker that sets up shop , not only in California, but in Silicon Valley. Talk about a price premium.... Real estate is extremely expensive, labor cost and all the other cost.

Don't forget, Tesla is heavily subsidized, in more than one way.

[nctnico]

As soon as Tesla has paved the way to make the batteries significantly cheaper and better you'll see Toyota, BMW, Volkswagen, etc come up with affordable EVs real quick.

And Mercedes, Toyota, BMW, Volkswagen haven't had the resources to pave the way already? Oh,  and 'real quick' with automobiles doesn't happen by the way!

Like I typed before: The Tesla model-S is not a mass product the way car makers see it. It takes a lot more development and engineering to turn the Model-S into a design ready to be mass produced.

[NiHaoMike]

Don't forget, Tesla is heavily subsidized, in more than one way.

Better to subsidize EVs than to subsidize oil.

[Robomeds]

the car is built in one of the highest cost area's in the world, and they are still profitable.

Not exactly.  Were it not for HEAVY government gifts Tesla would be in the red.  I wish them luck but I also wish I didn't have to help buy $100k cars. 

When Tesla can get by without gifts from DC and Sacramento THEN we can call them a success.  Currently they are opportunists.
http://www.caranddriver.com/columns/aaron-robinson-tesla-is-the-real-government-motors-column
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424127887324659404578499460139237952

[SeanB]

You mean like all the other companies that both pay no taxes and get tax returns on any taxes they paid, along with that being a profit centre. Blame that on a tax code so labyrinth and riddled with exceptions that a 900 page SUMMARY still is totally unreadable and has more holes than a Swiss cheese. Reform the tax laws to a 10 page document with no exceptions ( fat chance with all the politicians feeding off that gravy train) and you will stop that.

[zapta]

Better to subsidize EVs than to subsidize oil.

It's the old I-will-take-your-money-but-it-is-for-your-own-benefit trick.


 

[EEVblog]

Not exactly.  Were it not for HEAVY government gifts Tesla would be in the red.  I wish them luck but I also wish I didn't have to help buy $100k cars. 
When Tesla can get by without gifts from DC and Sacramento THEN we can call them a success.  Currently they are opportunists.

So what's different with Tesla and the rest of the US automotice subsidy industry?

Source:
http://www.ppbadvisory.com/uploads/a381-00464INS-Auto-Insight-May-2013.pdf

I'd rather have a government spend my tax dollars (if I was a Yank) subsidising the first serious automotive manufacturer in like 50 years or something, and one that is world leader in future technology, and than a ton of the other crap the government subsidies or pisses away money on.

[nctnico]

It is not about funding the car industry but paying companies to keep labour intensive production work in the country.

One of the problems with government funding of companies is that companies start to rely on the government to help them instead of looking for new markets or gradual downsizing. Over here in the NL government bailouts in the 70's and 80's have lead to a dramatic end of the ship and aircraft industry.

[zapta]

So what's different with Tesla and the rest of the US automotice subsidy industry?

$2908 per car is peanuts in Tesla subsidies scale. Here is one example  http://www.teslamotors.com/incentives/US/California

I'd rather have a government spend my tax dollars (if I was a Yank) subsidising the first serious automotive manufacturer in like 50 years or something, and one that is world leader in future technology, and than a ton of the other crap the government subsidies or pisses away money on.

That's expected. Everybody want other people money for their pet cause, often with good intentions. That's why DC (not the current) has so many activists and lobbyists.