Man trapped inside driverless car as it spins in circles

[tszaboo]

Self-driving cars represent one part of the future of high automation and low employment.  Driving a truck is the most common job in 31 out of 50 US states.  The idea that ca. 5-10% of all employment could evaporate in a decade or thereabouts if the wild growth of companies like Waymo is anything to go by should be making people worry and we need to be looking at alternatives to 100% employment.

I could be wrong and just like horse farriers were replaced by car mechanics, it could turn out that automation creates yet more jobs, but it is not yet obvious how that will happen, so we at least need to have some idea of what the path looks like in a post full-employment society. That might be UBI, or it might be state-owned housing (both sounding quite socialist to many), or it might be outright anti-capitalist revolution with the self-driving cars being burned in the streets so the taxi drivers still have a job .

Again, just because it's technically possible, it doesn't mean it'll happen.

There's a far greater chance of mechanics losing their jobs, since EVs are mechanically much simpler. Lots of it is just plug a box in to diagnose faults than doing any real work.

Yet when I looked up the annual service costs for an EV, it wasn't actually cheaper than my car.
It's a quantum superposition. When you read an article, it is "supposed to be 50% lower" but when you have to pay, it's actually the same.
So I looked up how much servicing the Toyota br4whatever costs, which was 415 EUR. And a similar Prius from the same year was 385 EUR.

[tom66]

Yet when I looked up the annual service costs for an EV, it wasn't actually cheaper than my car.
It's a quantum superposition. When you read an article, it is "supposed to be 50% lower" but when you have to pay, it's actually the same.
So I looked up how much servicing the Toyota br4whatever costs, which was 415 EUR. And a similar Prius from the same year was 385 EUR.

That's because (a) Toyota don't really 'get' EVs, and (b) dealer servicing is always a rip off anyway.

The 'dealer service' for my car (VW ID.3) is about £250 and due every two years or 20,000 miles.  But realistically it covers:

- Charging the high voltage battery... I can do that at home for ~£6.  Why do I need to pay the dealer to do it?
- Inspecting the underbody for damage/rust/etc. Already part of the mandatory MOT.
- Checking for recalls and applying any necessary. Can be done online for free. Statutory requirement to notify me by post anyway.
- Changing the pollen filter.  A new one is ~£15 and it's an easy job to change.
- Software updates, if available.  These are delivered OTA.

So, do I need to service my car?  Nothing there will lead to catastrophic failure if it is not done.  The only thing I'll get is a "car needs service" warning if I don't do it.  Which I can cancel via my OBD dongle.

[Analog Kid]

ICE engines and gearboxes have been migrating towards throw away when it fails items for the last 2 decades.

Not sure about that: as late as the mid-2000s there were still lots of auto-repair businesses that specialized in replacing engines with the Japanese engines that came over here by the boatload, since there were at their mandated end-of-life in Japan (I think somewhere between 100K and 200K miles). It was a much cheaper alternative to a brand-new engine.

I wonder if that market still exists.

[Analog Kid]

Another data point for us self-driving car h8trs, from San Francisco:
"Two Stalled Waymos Gummed Up Lurie’s Chinatown Inauguration Party, But Cops Just Jumped In Them and Drove Away"

[thm_w]

Yet when I looked up the annual service costs for an EV, it wasn't actually cheaper than my car.
It's a quantum superposition. When you read an article, it is "supposed to be 50% lower" but when you have to pay, it's actually the same.
So I looked up how much servicing the Toyota br4whatever costs, which was 415 EUR. And a similar Prius from the same year was 385 EUR.

Dealerships don't make their money on selling you a car, they make the vast majority of their money on maintenance and upselling useless warranties/coatings/etc. Of course they want you to take the car in.

As tom says, unless something has actually gone wrong, all you are doing is changing the air filter every few years. Maybe changing the 12V battery after 5 years (which they are phasing out): https://www.tesla.com/ownersmanual/model3/en_us/GUID-E95DAAD9-646E-4249-9930-B109ED7B1D91.html

Typical real world rates are 30-50% less: https://advocacy.consumerreports.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/EV-Ownership-Cost-Final-Report-1.pdf

[coppercone2]

how about a button that makes it lose power over a period of say 15 seconds so traffic can adjust but its also a hard shut down

it might still be a problem if it decides to turn off in the middle of a highway though, if it fails to pull over

Like you should be able to stop it, if something catches on fire.

[SiliconWizard]

How about you keep a driver on board?

[Analog Kid]

How about you keep a driver on board?

No! We must have Johnny Cab! Gotta have Johnny Cab!

[SiliconWizard]

Employing people costs too much.
Unemployed people cost too much.

"I'm sorry, Dave...."

[Siwastaja]

As tom says, unless something has actually gone wrong, all you are doing is changing the air filter every few years. Maybe changing the 12V battery after 5 years (which they are phasing out): https://www.tesla.com/ownersmanual/model3/en_us/GUID-E95DAAD9-646E-4249-9930-B109ED7B1D91.html

You are forgetting brake maintenance (lubricating the slide pins), and replacing worn suspension parts; for example some Teslas have been notorious to require suspension repair already after just some tens of thousands of km (with failure rate of 25% in first 3-year inspection), but even in better build quality cars that is going to happen around 100 000 km or so, or maybe 3-5 years if the car is being used (and it makes no sense to buy an EV and not drive it).

Really the only significant maintenance item missing from EVs are frequent oil + oil filter changes. The cost of which is around 30-40€ / year. EVs do not require much maintenance, but neither do new-ish ICE cars.

[tszaboo]

Yet when I looked up the annual service costs for an EV, it wasn't actually cheaper than my car.
It's a quantum superposition. When you read an article, it is "supposed to be 50% lower" but when you have to pay, it's actually the same.
So I looked up how much servicing the Toyota br4whatever costs, which was 415 EUR. And a similar Prius from the same year was 385 EUR.

Dealerships don't make their money on selling you a car, they make the vast majority of their money on maintenance and upselling useless warranties/coatings/etc. Of course they want you to take the car in.

As tom says, unless something has actually gone wrong, all you are doing is changing the air filter every few years. Maybe changing the 12V battery after 5 years (which they are phasing out): https://www.tesla.com/ownersmanual/model3/en_us/GUID-E95DAAD9-646E-4249-9930-B109ED7B1D91.html

Typical real world rates are 30-50% less: https://advocacy.consumerreports.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/EV-Ownership-Cost-Final-Report-1.pdf

You lose the warranty if you don't do the service. I guess companies like Lexus or Kia, who offer 10 year warranties figured they could charge more for the regular maintenance than repairs. Which is fine in my book, they build a good quality car and the costs can be planned.
As opposed to VW who will spend years of engineering so that your turbo can explode at 50001 Km.
I just don't like this pretend it's not this way.

[Siwastaja]

You lose the warranty if you don't do the service.

At least here the practice of requiring servicing at the manufacturer's own dealership is deemed illegal, and warranty can't be void if the service is done per the manufacturer's requirements and correctly, at any provider who are equipped to do it, and trying to prevent it is also illegal. As a result, such servicing has at least acceptable level of competition. Servicing most new cars seem to range around 150-300 EUR depending on where you do it. As you point out, there is not much difference between EVs and ICE vehicles. For both of them, the servicing does not take long; unless there is something actually wrong, in which case it's covered by warranty.

Expecting significant savings from already low maintenance cost is indeed fool's errand. EV saves money in countries where electricity is cheap and fossil fuels are expensive (e.g., Finland). The energy cost is by far the largest contributor of savings. It also used to be possible to save a bit on taxation and insurance fees but that has turned around when both the governments and insurance companies have figured out that EVs are being bought by "rich people" and can be thus sanctioned with extra taxes and fees because people can afford to pay them without complaining too much - basically, EV drivers now subsidize those driving with old cars, used to be the other way around.

If one is theoretically able to save 40€/year from not having to do oil changes, that is completely irrelevant in the big picture.

[tom66]

Yet when I looked up the annual service costs for an EV, it wasn't actually cheaper than my car.
It's a quantum superposition. When you read an article, it is "supposed to be 50% lower" but when you have to pay, it's actually the same.
So I looked up how much servicing the Toyota br4whatever costs, which was 415 EUR. And a similar Prius from the same year was 385 EUR.

Dealerships don't make their money on selling you a car, they make the vast majority of their money on maintenance and upselling useless warranties/coatings/etc. Of course they want you to take the car in.

As tom says, unless something has actually gone wrong, all you are doing is changing the air filter every few years. Maybe changing the 12V battery after 5 years (which they are phasing out): https://www.tesla.com/ownersmanual/model3/en_us/GUID-E95DAAD9-646E-4249-9930-B109ED7B1D91.html

Typical real world rates are 30-50% less: https://advocacy.consumerreports.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/EV-Ownership-Cost-Final-Report-1.pdf

You lose the warranty if you don't do the service. I guess companies like Lexus or Kia, who offer 10 year warranties figured they could charge more for the regular maintenance than repairs. Which is fine in my book, they build a good quality car and the costs can be planned.
As opposed to VW who will spend years of engineering so that your turbo can explode at 50001 Km.
I just don't like this pretend it's not this way.

Definitely not true in the UK. They would need to demonstrate that the vehicle's lack of servicing caused the fault.  Engine exploding due to bad oil - easy to demonstrate.  Main drive inverter going "bang" because you didn't get the body inspection done?  Err... no.

Anyway, aside from the battery pack, my car is out of warranty.  I self-insure and repair my own vehicles.  Not had a catastrophic fault... yet.  Ask me in a few years!

[tszaboo]

Yet when I looked up the annual service costs for an EV, it wasn't actually cheaper than my car.
It's a quantum superposition. When you read an article, it is "supposed to be 50% lower" but when you have to pay, it's actually the same.
So I looked up how much servicing the Toyota br4whatever costs, which was 415 EUR. And a similar Prius from the same year was 385 EUR.

Dealerships don't make their money on selling you a car, they make the vast majority of their money on maintenance and upselling useless warranties/coatings/etc. Of course they want you to take the car in.

As tom says, unless something has actually gone wrong, all you are doing is changing the air filter every few years. Maybe changing the 12V battery after 5 years (which they are phasing out): https://www.tesla.com/ownersmanual/model3/en_us/GUID-E95DAAD9-646E-4249-9930-B109ED7B1D91.html

Typical real world rates are 30-50% less: https://advocacy.consumerreports.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/EV-Ownership-Cost-Final-Report-1.pdf

You lose the warranty if you don't do the service. I guess companies like Lexus or Kia, who offer 10 year warranties figured they could charge more for the regular maintenance than repairs. Which is fine in my book, they build a good quality car and the costs can be planned.
As opposed to VW who will spend years of engineering so that your turbo can explode at 50001 Km.
I just don't like this pretend it's not this way.

Definitely not true in the UK. They would need to demonstrate that the vehicle's lack of servicing caused the fault.  Engine exploding due to bad oil - easy to demonstrate.  Main drive inverter going "bang" because you didn't get the body inspection done?  Err... no.

Anyway, aside from the battery pack, my car is out of warranty.  I self-insure and repair my own vehicles.  Not had a catastrophic fault... yet.  Ask me in a few years!

Haha, you think you are smarter than weasel lawyers.

You could receive up to 10 years warranty up until your vehicle is 10 years old or has reached 100k miles. This additional warranty is made up of the 3 years manufacturer warranty plus 7 years’ service activated warranty*) giving you a chance to relax in the knowledge that you and your vehicle are in safe hands. *Terms and Conditions apply.

[Halcyon]

You lose the warranty if you don't do the service.

At least here the practice of requiring servicing at the manufacturer's own dealership is deemed illegal, and warranty can't be void if the service is done per the manufacturer's requirements and correctly, at any provider who are equipped to do it, and trying to prevent it is also illegal.

Same in Australia.

Speaking of vehicle costs; I did some back-of-the-napkin maths a few years ago when I bought my current vehicle. For me, overall, it was cheaper to buy a fairly economical turbo-charged ICE car, than an EV of similar quality/spec. Depending on the time of year and the manufacturer, you can get yourself free or fixed-price servicing in the first handful of years. The insurance was also a huge expense. Currently, I pay about $860/yr for comprehensive insurance, with an agreed value (not market value) on my vehicle. It also includes 1 free windscreen repair/replacement each year, that doesn't impact my premium or claim-free standing. My insurer wouldn't even offer insurance on a Tesla. Some of the other quotes I got for a Tesla 3 were at least quadruple my yearly premium and probably then some. My insurer isn't some small, budget company either, it's a fairly well known brand.

Coupled with range issues (I do travel quite a long distance on freeways), the cost of fast chargers, etc... The maths just didn't make sense.

In Australia, in the states I live/drive in, every single petrol station has live fuel pricing through an application (run by the state government) on my phone. Personally, I deem half a tank to be "empty" and I'll start looking for places to fill up, depending on my movements. This gives me plenty of buffer to wait until the prices are low, or I can find somewhere along my planned route to fill up. It's not unusual to save something like 20c per litre on 98RON fuel just by not filling up at my local service stations, and planning ahead a little bit. For example, right now, looking at the stations I've favourited along my most commonly travelled routes, they range from 191.5 cents through to 222.9 cents per litre for 98RON unleaded. Lowest in the state is currently 171.5c/litre, highest is 259.0c/litre (neither are anywhere near me).

Also speaking of fuel, since I know some people are playing along at home, the lows/highs for various fuels in my state (New South Wales, Australia), at time of writing, are as follows:

E10: 149.5 to 213.9 cents per litre
E85: 209.9 to 221.9 cents per litre
91RON: 151.5 to 256.9 cents per litre
95RON: 167.5 to 259.9 cents per litre
98RON: 171.5 to 259.0 cents per litre
Diesel: 162.5 to 269.9 cents per litre
Biodiesel (20%): 245.0 to 249.9 cents per litre
LPG: 89.9 to 149.9 cents per litre

[tom66]

To be honest Tesla is bad for insurance.  When I was looking at quotes for my future car it was something like

Tesla Model 3 - £2,500 per year with £500 deductible
VW ID.3 - £780 per year with £350 deductible
VW Golf Mk8 - £760 per year with £350 deductible
Existing VW Golf GTE - £600 per year with £350 deductible

In other words, the older car was a little cheaper to insure (it being worth half as much) but the petrol & EV equivalents of each other (roughly same power, price, size category) were about the same, whereas the Tesla was much more expensive.

Teslas have long repair times due to deliberate focus on Tesla on producing new vehicles with their production capacity.  They also have a reputation for bad drivers.

I did an indicative quote this year (my insurance renews in April) and the price should fall by a bit from where it was.