i suck at auctions

[Brumby]

But it has become quite a religious (based of faith not fact) thing to go on supporting "snipe" bidding. Since you cannot know who is interested or how much any one person will pay or when they will make their bid, predictions about the outcome are faith based. All anyone can know is how much they are prepared to pay.

Where is there any difference here between sniping and any other forms of bidding?

All sniping can achieve is to reduce the available window for slow typists or those with a slow internet connection  to respond.

Rubbish.  The idea of a snipe is to reduce the window so that even someone who has gigabit internet and types faster than you can speak won't have a that chance.

Or perhaps most usefully to save those with a psychological predisposition from exceeding their value limit in a bidding frenzy.

I'll give you that one.

Snipe bidding sites have removed any advantage that may have ever had.

Utter crap.  Live sniping, by someone who knows what they're doing will still out-do any sniping site.  They are, however, useful for people who want to be lazy about it.

  Effectively making an autobid limited by a persons estimation of the value, only doing it at the last possible moment.

So?  This is bidding.

But if someone put a higher bid than you, then you will not win the auction  regardless. Nothing else matters.

That is true - no matter when a bid is placed during the auction.

As with all religious debates this one too will not ever be settled.

What is there about this that is a "religious debate"?  Nothing.

My answer to that is the first thing I said. "But it has become quite a religious (based of faith not fact) thing to go on supporting "snipe" bidding. Since you cannot know who is interested or how much any one person will pay or when they will make their bid, predictions about the outcome are faith based. All anyone can know is how much they are prepared to pay."

Your use of the word "faith", perhaps?  You might want to think that - but the fact is, faith has nothing to do with it.  The amount of ANY bid is a function of what the other participants are willing to place.  That's not faith - that's just another unknown.

Isn't that essentially my entire point?

You've stripped apart my argument into a bunch of pieces devoid of the surrounding supporting sentences and context and apparently not understood any of them. Even restating the very point I was making.

My post was crafted somewhat carefully to make my case. Dissecting it as you have into disparate sentences and phrases is to fail to attempt to defeat it on the broader idea it attempts to convey.

If this thread goes as I expect it too, just based on past experience, it will become clear to the independent reader that the sniping debate is largely a religious debate. Facts will be scarce or non-existent and opinions defended vociferously.

1. I addressed your points one by one - in order and without censorship.  Sorry if that annoys you.

2. Your isolation of "sniper" bidding as being the form of bidding requiring "faith" is patently - and quite obviously wrong.  If you truly want to use the word "faith" then it applies to any form of bidding.  Perhaps the most appropriate use of the word "faith" is not in the mechanism of bidding - but in using a platform like eBay in the first place.

3. Claiming something is religious doesn't make it so... but you seem to like doing that sort of thing.  Then again, maybe this is an expression of your own personal religious beliefs.

4. Sellers may not like snipers - but the fact of the matter is, a buyer is under no obligation to pay any more for an item that they have to ... and if they can find legitimate means to do so, then they have my blessing (even if that means they push the bidding up against my own bids). Snipers will always push up prices - sometimes quite dramatically.

5. Buyers who whinge about snipers beating them at the last moment have only themselves to blame.  They obviously did not put in their real maximum before the auction ended.


I fail to see anything more religious in this than opening up a store selling TVs.  The mechanics of it are straightforward.

[Someone]

Step 1, determine how much you want to pay for the item.
Step 2, put that bid into the ebay/whatever platforms auto bid system.

Now it is sure you pay only what you think it is worth and no more, if someone else thinks its worth more they can have at it. The psychology of keeping the price low throughout the action will not lead to lower prices, the only way to lower prices is if people don't bid. By not auto bidding at your realistic valuation you're just helping the snipers maintain their false market (they'll tell you not to auto bid so they can keep getting lower prices).

I have to disagree on that being a good strategy.

Follow the above advice and:
Step 3 - an incremental bidder comes along and bids a few $ at a time, a bunch of times, then gives up a few dollars short of your max bid.
Step 4 - thanks to step 3, you win the auction, but pay a much higher price you would have had you waited till the last moment and sniped.

-or-

Step 3 (alternate) - Incremental bidder(s) come along and bid the price up beyond what you were willing to pay.  You don't get the item.

Bottom line - am I willing to pay, say, $100 for a given piece of equipment?  Yes.  Would I much prefer to get said piece of equipment for, say, $25 or $30?  Absolutely.  I'd be a fool to say otherwise.  Am I more likely to get it, and for less $$, if I wait till the last moment and don't give the incremental bidders a chance to bid it up or start a bidding war with me?  Also yes.  For a seller, snipers are teh suxors.  For a buyer, it's the only way to go, IMO.

-Pat

It doesnt matter if an "incremental bidder" comes through and bids it up, I'll incrementally bid on auctions for the lols. Sniping only works when you try and convince people not to bid up front and hope they will fail to snipe (bad connection etc) or forget to. If someone wants to pay more than you do for the item they will win the item, just by putting their actual maximum bid in, sniping does nothing to stop that, unless you try and convince them not to bid.....

[bson]

I research prices and figure out what I consider a good deal for something, then bid exactly that much close to the deadline.  If I win, then great - I got a good deal.  If I lose, then no biggie, it wasn't a good deal anyway.  I always bid close to the ending, why bid early?  It just drives up prices since a lot of people have absolutely no concept of how much they're willing to pay for something.  Bidding late also lets me go from one auction to the next until I get what I want at a good price.  Otherwise I'd have to bid on ten auctions and might end up with five of something I only want one of, or none at all - and not know until 5 days later.

[Cubdriver]

How is the supporting evidence unknowable?  I've seen it repeatedly myself.  When I first began buying on e-bay, I would naively put in my max bid days before the auction ended.  I'd then get to watch as either incremental bidders eeked the price up slowly or as snipers bumped it at the last moment.  Sometimes I won, more often I lost.  Losing to the snipers is a no win situation - they were willing to pay more than I was, end of story.  Had I sniped the same bid, I still would have lost.  With the incremental bidders, I would up paying more than I otherwise would have, especially if it was only one other bidder.

Scenario 1 - you bid your max early, and there is a single incremental bidder.  Item starts at $25.  You're willing to pay $90.  You bid $90.  Chippy the incremental bidder comes along and decides he wants the item.  It shows 1 bid, and a $25 price.  He bids $27; your bid increments to $28.  He chips up to $30; ebay bumps yours to $31.  He goes $35, yours jumps to $36.  He goes $40, $45, $50, $60 and finally quits at $75.  Your bid now stands at $76.  No one else bids.  You win the item, for $76.

Scenario 2 - I see the item and decide to snipe.  Chippy comes along, decides he'd like it and puts in his $30 bid.  He's the high bidder at $25, and has no reason to go any higher, so he doesn't.  I wait till five seconds are left, and bid $90.  I'm now the high bidder at $31, and Chippy, even if he's watching, doesn't have time to react and bump his bid.  I win the item for $31.

I'd rather pay $31 than $76.  Wouldn't you?

Scenario 3 - once again, max bid early, same $25 start price, $90 max.  Chippy once again bumps it up to $75.  You're still winning.  A sniper comes along, sees a bunch of bids and that it's way up at $76 and decides to bid $100.  You lose at $91.

Scenario 4 - Same starting situation, but you decide to try sniping.  Chippy bids $30; the item shows 1 bid at $25.  The same sniper comes along sees little activity  - only one bid.  Decides to try for a bargain, and rather than bidding the $100 he would have bid when it was at $75, decides instead to only bid $60, as it looks to be going cheap.  You snipe with your $90 bid, and though you bump into him, you still win at $61.  A bit pricier, but better than losing out.

I personally, as a buyer, can see no downside (other than the inconvenience; I've not been inclined to try a sniping program) to sniping - only up sides.  I may not win a LOT more auctions, but in the long run am most likely to pay less overall than those who place max bids and let the chips fall where they may.

I actually suspect that a lot of incremental bidders don't fully understand how e-bay's proxy system works which is why they chip away like they do, placing small incremental bids up to their max, and as such will stop incrementing as soon as they see they have the winning bid.  If no one has bid on something, then they'll stop at one very low one.

FWIW.

-Pat

[Cubdriver]

It doesnt matter if an "incremental bidder" comes through and bids it up, I'll incrementally bid on auctions for the lols. Sniping only works when you try and convince people not to bid up front and hope they will fail to snipe (bad connection etc) or forget to. If someone wants to pay more than you do for the item they will win the item, just by putting their actual maximum bid in, sniping does nothing to stop that, unless you try and convince them not to bid.....

I'm not suggesting that sniping will win an auction if someone else (early bidder or sniper) is willing to pay more.  It won't.  It will, however, lower your cost if there is only one other (incremental) bidder in play.  You bid auctions up for lols.  Strange idea of fun, but ok.  How does that work if you're the only bidder?  Doesn't Incremental bidding only work if there's a bid already placed to increment against?

-Pat

[Cubdriver]

It doesnt matter if an "incremental bidder" comes through and bids it up, I'll incrementally bid on auctions for the lols. Sniping only works when you try and convince people not to bid up front and hope they will fail to snipe (bad connection etc) or forget to. If someone wants to pay more than you do for the item they will win the item, just by putting their actual maximum bid in, sniping does nothing to stop that, unless you try and convince them not to bid.....

And I'm perfectly willing to pay my max bid on something - if I wasn't why bid that high?  But.  If there's a no cost technique that may, even one out of twenty times, enable me to pay LESS for what I'm trying to buy, WHY WOULD I NOT USE IT whenever possible?       

-Pat

[Brumby]

How does that work if you're the only bidder?  Doesn't Incremental bidding only work if there's a bid already placed to increment against?

If you are the only bidder on eBay, you will only pay the Starting Price.

[Cubdriver]

How does that work if you're the only bidder?  Doesn't Incremental bidding only work if there's a bid already placed to increment against?

If you are the only bidder on eBay, you will only pay the Starting Price.

Yes, I realize that.  I'm talking about strategies for use against incremental bidders - specifically, sniping.  If an incremental bidder is the ONLY bidder, he will bid just over the starting price on an auction, will have the high bid and have no reason to bid further.  If I then snipe, I will get it for his bid + whatever the minimum increment is.  If I place my high bid early, he will continue bidding and drive the price up.  I may still win, but if it were only the two of us bidding on the auction, as soon as he makes a second bid, it has cost me more than it would if he didn't have my initial bid to go against and I simply sniped.

"Someone" (in quotes to emphasize that it's a screen name and not a generic someone) is saying that sniping does nothing to help with incremental bidders, and stated that he sometimes bids up auctions incrementally for lols.  I was asking him how, if he were the only bidder, would he bid incrementally?

-Pat

[tautech]

Years ago there was a DSO that I'd been looking for on our local auction site Trademe, the same one the OP appelly has used in this thread.

From my farming days I've had a good amount of "live" auction experience buying cattle and knew a few tricks to put the wind up any competition.

Start HIGH.
Bid LARGE bids up to your limit.

The pro's know these tricks and you just hope none are watching. 

[Someone]

Scenario 2 - I see the item and decide to snipe.  Chippy comes along, decides he'd like it and puts in his $30 bid.  He's the high bidder at $25, and has no reason to go any higher, so he doesn't.  I wait till five seconds are left, and bid $90.  I'm now the high bidder at $31, and Chippy, even if he's watching, doesn't have time to react and bump his bid.  I win the item for $31.

One scenario where you make a "win" and it assumes that the original bidder didn't really want the item and put in a low ball bid. You then make up a story about how they certainly would have bid more if they had the chance for some back and forth, which is entirely your concept and not able to be proven at all.

Auctions are great, if you reach a large enough audience the sale price is close to the market value. The only games are people thinking they can game the system (you can't).

[Brumby]

"Someone" (in quotes to emphasize that it's a screen name and not a generic someone) is saying that sniping does nothing to help with incremental bidders, and stated that he sometimes bids up auctions incrementally for lols.  I was asking him how, if he were the only bidder, would he bid incrementally?

Ah, my apologies.  Short answer is ... he can't.

A bidder can always add another, higher maximum.  It will show as another bid - but it won't alter the current bid value.

This is a technique I have seen used where a bidder has the winning bid, but will put in another bid anyway.  Other potential bidders will see the high bidder as being in front from a previous bid and that they have put in a further bid.  This means that whatever their maximum was before, it is now even higher -indicating that this buyer really wants it ... and possibly putting other bidders off.

[EEVblog]

I like the auction format where the auction keeps going until bidding stops for 10minutes. More like a real auction.

Not sure if anyone actually pointed this out, but www.trademe.co.nz (the linked site where this thread began) has this feature.
Auctions stay open until 2 minutes after the last bid.

http://www.graysonline.com/ has that feature.
I use justsnipe.com mostly for convenience, as if I see something I like then I can just set a max bid and forget it. better than setting a max bid in ebay because then it just ups the interest level in the product and it's likely to go higher as a result.
I've lost more than i've won though.

[apelly]

Step 1, determine how much you want to pay for the item.
Step 2, put that bid into the ebay/whatever platforms auto bid system.

Now it is sure you pay only what you think it is worth and no more, if someone else thinks its worth more they can have at it. The psychology of keeping the price low throughout the action will not lead to lower prices, the only way to lower prices is if people don't bid. By not auto bidding at your realistic valuation you're just helping the snipers maintain their false market (they'll tell you not to auto bid so they can keep getting lower prices).

Step 1. Pay $5

[Cubdriver]

Scenario 2 - I see the item and decide to snipe.  Chippy comes along, decides he'd like it and puts in his $30 bid.  He's the high bidder at $25, and has no reason to go any higher, so he doesn't.  I wait till five seconds are left, and bid $90.  I'm now the high bidder at $31, and Chippy, even if he's watching, doesn't have time to react and bump his bid.  I win the item for $31.

One scenario where you make a "win" and it assumes that the original bidder didn't really want the item and put in a low ball bid. You then make up a story about how they certainly would have bid more if they had the chance for some back and forth, which is entirely your concept and not able to be proven at all.

Auctions are great, if you reach a large enough audience the sale price is close to the market value. The only games are people thinking they can game the system (you can't).

Yup.  I made up a story about bidding more that can't be proven at all.  Except that, well, here's an example where it recently happened to me:

http://offer.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewBids&item=381826570384&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2565

I've been waiting to get one of these counters for quite a while now, and it seems that they only rarely show up.  I was watching and planning to snipe this one, but because some friends were in from out of town unexpectedly, I was out and had to do so from my phone rather than at home on my regular computer where I know I can bid within the last five seconds and have it go through.  I wasn't sure what the delay time on the phone might be, so I wound up placing my bid when there was ~25 seconds left.  The bid went through 21 seconds before the auction ended.  7 seconds later, the previous high bidder began incrementing his bid.  He did so five times in the remaining twelve seconds that the auction was open.

Had I followed my normal procedure of bidding in the last five seconds, he likely wouldn't have had a chance to up his bid even once; instead, what I would have gotten for $50.07 wound up costing me $69.  Nearly $20 more.  Please look at the bid listing and the times, then tell me how I made up a story.  If he really had wanted the item and DIDN'T put in a low ball bid, then why did he start incrementing?  His initial 'high' bid was obviously not as much as he was willing to pay, or he wouldn't have increased it.

There are plenty of other things I've been watching but passed on when two fools got into a bidding war early on and jacked the price up too much; if either had waited and sniped with their initial bids they'd have gotten it for much less.

-Pat

[apelly]

If you're embarrassed with too much I'd be interested in a few hundred mils of it.

I'll be in Rotorua around new year's eve. You have to take 8 litres and distribute it amongst the community. Apparently I own enough dubious flux to suppress the whole NZ amateur market for years.

The guy is so keen to get rid of it he wants me to take it all for my $5 bid, and he's prepared to drop it off at my place. Better that than land fill I guess. But I have no idea how to get rid of it.

[nanofrog]

If you're embarrassed with too much I'd be interested in a few hundred mils of it.

I'll be in Rotorua around new year's eve. You have to take 8 litres and distribute it amongst the community. Apparently I own enough dubious flux to suppress the whole NZ amateur market for years.

The guy is so keen to get rid of it he wants me to take it all for my $5 bid, and he's prepared to drop it off at my place. Better that than land fill I guess. But I have no idea how to get rid of it.

Schools, maker-spaces, and HAM clubs might be interested, especially if it's free. 

[Cubdriver]

How is the supporting evidence unknowable?  I've seen it repeatedly myself.  When I first began buying on e-bay, I would naively put in my max bid days before the auction ended.  I'd then get to watch as either incremental bidders eeked the price up slowly or as snipers bumped it at the last moment.  Sometimes I won, more often I lost.  Losing to the snipers is a no win situation - they were willing to pay more than I was, end of story.  Had I sniped the same bid, I still would have lost.  With the incremental bidders, I would up paying more than I otherwise would have, especially if it was only one other bidder.

Scenario 1 - you bid your max early, and there is a single incremental bidder.  Item starts at $25.  You're willing to pay $90.  You bid $90.  Chippy the incremental bidder comes along and decides he wants the item.  It shows 1 bid, and a $25 price.  He bids $27; your bid increments to $28.  He chips up to $30; ebay bumps yours to $31.  He goes $35, yours jumps to $36.  He goes $40, $45, $50, $60 and finally quits at $75.  Your bid now stands at $76.  No one else bids.  You win the item, for $76.

Scenario 2 - I see the item and decide to snipe.  Chippy comes along, decides he'd like it and puts in his $30 bid.  He's the high bidder at $25, and has no reason to go any higher, so he doesn't.  I wait till five seconds are left, and bid $90.  I'm now the high bidder at $31, and Chippy, even if he's watching, doesn't have time to react and bump his bid.  I win the item for $31.

I'd rather pay $31 than $76.  Wouldn't you?

Scenario 3 - once again, max bid early, same $25 start price, $90 max.  Chippy once again bumps it up to $75.  You're still winning.  A sniper comes along, sees a bunch of bids and that it's way up at $76 and decides to bid $100.  You lose at $91.

Scenario 4 - Same starting situation, but you decide to try sniping.  Chippy bids $30; the item shows 1 bid at $25.  The same sniper comes along sees little activity  - only one bid.  Decides to try for a bargain, and rather than bidding the $100 he would have bid when it was at $75, decides instead to only bid $60, as it looks to be going cheap.  You snipe with your $90 bid, and though you bump into him, you still win at $61.  A bit pricier, but better than losing out.

I personally, as a buyer, can see no downside (other than the inconvenience; I've not been inclined to try a sniping program) to sniping - only up sides.  I may not win a LOT more auctions, but in the long run am most likely to pay less overall than those who place max bids and let the chips fall where they may.

I actually suspect that a lot of incremental bidders don't fully understand how e-bay's proxy system works which is why they chip away like they do, placing small incremental bids up to their max, and as such will stop incrementing as soon as they see they have the winning bid.  If no one has bid on something, then they'll stop at one very low one.

FWIW.

-Pat

Specifically with respect to "How is the supporting evidence unknowable?". I want to say two things. Firstly there is nothing intrinsically wrong with gaming the system. I try it on too. Sometimes I win, mostly I lose. But the only strategy that guarantees a win is to bid more than anyone else. Unless you do that the outcome is unknowable.

Secondly, I want to invite you to go back and re-read what your argument states. Very very carefully. I want you to see if you ever justify some action or method based on the result you achieved. And this is the important bit, did you ever make the solid justification based on information you had certain sure knowledge of BEFORE the auction ended.

I repeat, winning an ebay auction is a game and a pretty good game. There are winners and losers in every auction. No game where one player has certanty of winning is a good game. No-one has a guarantee of winning in an ebay auction. No-one has complete knowledge before the end of the auction.

I don't know if I can say it more clearly. There is no strategy which guarantees a win other than to bid highest. With information available before the hammer falls, the outcome is unknowable.

Hence I claim it is impossible to justify any strategy after the auction completes  using only information available prior to the completion of the auction.

I don't believe I ever suggested that sniping guarantees a win.  It does not, nor have I ever said otherwise.  What I'm saying is that overall, it can and will save you $$ in at least some of the auctions that you DO win, because if your high bid is not there, then the incrementers are not able to run the price up against YOU! 

Does it work every time?  No, it does not.

Does it cost anything to do it?  No.

Does it save money when it works?  In my experience, yes it does.

See my previous post here, where an incremental bidder given just a FEW SECONDS AT THE END OF THE AUCTION increased the cost by nearly $20.  Placing the bid literally 15 seconds later may have saved me $19 in that instance.

My argument states that sniping can sometimes save you money, because if a bid is not there, incremental bidders will not bid up against it.  I've cited my reasoning, and in my previous post gave a prime example if it happening due to my placing a bid only a few SECONDS earlier than I ordinarily would.

-Pat

[tautech]

If you're embarrassed with too much I'd be interested in a few hundred mils of it.

I'll be in Rotorua around new year's eve. You have to take 8 litres and distribute it amongst the community. Apparently I own enough dubious flux to suppress the whole NZ amateur market for years.

The guy is so keen to get rid of it he wants me to take it all for my $5 bid, and he's prepared to drop it off at my place. Better that than land fill I guess. But I have no idea how to get rid of it.

Oh hell what have you done ? 

Where are you normally ?

I've got plenty of storage space and could shift some if you need.
Either PM me or we can sort it out here.

[apelly]

Schools, maker-spaces, and HAM clubs might be interested, especially if it's free. 

Starting with the HAM club, I'm sure I can get most of it to a good home.

[nanofrog]

Schools, maker-spaces, and HAM clubs might be interested, especially if it's free. 

Starting with the HAM club, I'm sure I can get most of it to a good home.

[Assafl]

Sniping and auction bidding falls squarely under gaming theory and gaming psychology. Neither gaming theory nor psychology (for whatever reason) falls under standard intuition. Don't know why - but none of the results that Dan Arieli lists in his book made any particular intuitive sense over other possible outcomes.

I don't know why people behave the way they do on eBay and don't plan to - so I came to like sniping sites because they allow me to do my research, set my price - and wait for the results email...

BTW - only been using them since about 2005-2006. Prior to that used standard bidding. Guess I started losing more back then...

[apelly]

Where are you normally ?

Normally Auckland.

While I'm here; if there are any other Kiwis interested in some of this, for yourself, your club, school, whatever, you can have all you can eat for freight + a beer. But I know SFA about shipping stuff in NZ. I can probably get some cheap fastways stickers, or something similar, from a mate though.

[tautech]

Where are you normally ?

Normally Auckland.

While I'm here; if there are any other Kiwis interested in some of this, for yourself, your club, school, whatever, you can have all you can eat for freight + a beer. But I know SFA about shipping stuff in NZ. I can probably get some cheap fastways stickers, or something similar, from a mate though.

Me too.

We'll hook up and sort out some dates and times via PM and I'll put a little components hamper together as a thanks.

[hendorog]

Where are you normally ?

Normally Auckland.

While I'm here; if there are any other Kiwis interested in some of this, for yourself, your club, school, whatever, you can have all you can eat for freight + a beer. But I know SFA about shipping stuff in NZ. I can probably get some cheap fastways stickers, or something similar, from a mate though.

Me too.

We'll hook up and sort out some dates and times via PM and I'll put a little components hamper together as a thanks.

I can turn some into beer for you apelly. Let me know when you guys get together as it would be great to meet you both in person.

[Someone]

Scenario 2 - I see the item and decide to snipe.  Chippy comes along, decides he'd like it and puts in his $30 bid.  He's the high bidder at $25, and has no reason to go any higher, so he doesn't.  I wait till five seconds are left, and bid $90.  I'm now the high bidder at $31, and Chippy, even if he's watching, doesn't have time to react and bump his bid.  I win the item for $31.

One scenario where you make a "win" and it assumes that the original bidder didn't really want the item and put in a low ball bid. You then make up a story about how they certainly would have bid more if they had the chance for some back and forth, which is entirely your concept and not able to be proven at all.

Auctions are great, if you reach a large enough audience the sale price is close to the market value. The only games are people thinking they can game the system (you can't).

Yup.  I made up a story about bidding more that can't be proven at all.  Except that, well, here's an example where it recently happened to me:

http://offer.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewBids&item=381826570384&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2565

I've been waiting to get one of these counters for quite a while now, and it seems that they only rarely show up.  I was watching and planning to snipe this one, but because some friends were in from out of town unexpectedly, I was out and had to do so from my phone rather than at home on my regular computer where I know I can bid within the last five seconds and have it go through.  I wasn't sure what the delay time on the phone might be, so I wound up placing my bid when there was ~25 seconds left.  The bid went through 21 seconds before the auction ended.  7 seconds later, the previous high bidder began incrementing his bid.  He did so five times in the remaining twelve seconds that the auction was open.

Had I followed my normal procedure of bidding in the last five seconds, he likely wouldn't have had a chance to up his bid even once; instead, what I would have gotten for $50.07 wound up costing me $69.  Nearly $20 more.  Please look at the bid listing and the times, then tell me how I made up a story.  If he really had wanted the item and DIDN'T put in a low ball bid, then why did he start incrementing?  His initial 'high' bid was obviously not as much as he was willing to pay, or he wouldn't have increased it.

There are plenty of other things I've been watching but passed on when two fools got into a bidding war early on and jacked the price up too much; if either had waited and sniped with their initial bids they'd have gotten it for much less.

-Pat

So you've got two idiots in the same auction who think they'll get a better price by bidding late, no difference than bidding your max early. They would have left you a bargain only by not bidding so it didn't matter if they bid early or late, encouraging more people to snipe is only likely to get people caught up in the "fun" when they don't have time to consider their actions and may have increased the ending price of this auction you point to.

I've made lots of money at real auctions over the years, which is an entirely different "game". Online auctions are much simpler and lack any mystical psychology.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Auction_sniping
All the rubbish around trying to learn the value of the item is irrelevant to informed buyers, they know what its worth and set their bid accordingly. You can play with the uninformed, but at the end of the day you should know what its worth to you and not play the "game" by simply bidding what its worth. Or do you haggle on every purchase you make in shops?