How is Chipageddon affecting you?

[AndyC_772]

“To put it simply, Biden has forced all Americans working in China to pick between quitting their jobs and losing American citizenship.
“Every American executive and engineer working in China’s semiconductor manufacturing industry resigned yesterday, paralysing Chinese manufacturing overnight.

Oh, brilliant.

I don't suppose anyone knows for sure what constitutes the definition of "China" for this specific purpose?

ie. did TSMC just shut down overnight, in which case I might as well learn how to busk or grow potatoes, or not?

[tszaboo]

We just got 6 reels of the fake part at 10x the nominal price. Some soldered already on the board. Fun times.

And supplier of these reels was?

Some random Chinese broker I never heard of, that our supply chain manager thought are excellent choice for these parts.

[voltsandjolts]

We just got 6 reels of the fake part at 10x the nominal price. Some soldered already on the board. Fun times.

And supplier of these reels was?

Some random Chinese broker I never heard of, that our supply chain manager thought are excellent choice for these parts.

Don't be too hard on your supply chain manager, it must be a shit job this year. And next too

[tszaboo]

We just got 6 reels of the fake part at 10x the nominal price. Some soldered already on the board. Fun times.

And supplier of these reels was?

Some random Chinese broker I never heard of, that our supply chain manager thought are excellent choice for these parts.

Don't be too hard on your supply chain manager, it must be a shit job this year. And next too

I am entirely pissed off at our supply chain manager, since she undermined my promotion (and job in general) and she is completely unqualified for the job.

[fcb]

It's a dangerous game that the US is playing here and will certainly accelerate China's investment in its own domestic semiconductor market, reducing dependence upon European and American IP and technology (RISC-V over ARM will be an interesting one to watch for instance).  If China develops reliable EUV tech that will give an invasion of Taiwan a lower overall cost to China as losing TSMC may no longer be seen as devastating to their technology economy.

Pretty much no chance of China [quickly] developing EUV (https://www.youtube.com/c/asianometry - quite a few videos that explain ASML's unassailable lead).

Apart from ASML, the other players in the market are Nikon/Canon - and there isn't much love lost between Japan and China - also their machines are somewhat behind ASML.

I'm guessing there is a plan to be a plan to grenade ASML's latest kit in Taiwan should there be an invasion.

As for the withdrawl of US labour in CN - be interesting to see if the EU follows the US on this - unlikely, but possible - certainly interesting times.

[Black Phoenix]

Apart from ASML, the other players in the market are Nikon/Canon - and there isn't much love lost between Japan and China - also their machines are somewhat behind ASML.

For EUV, only ASML have machines. Canon and Nikon stop at DUV.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/23/inside-asml-the-company-advanced-chipmakers-use-for-euv-lithography.html

[coppice]

Quote:

“This is what annihilation looks like: China’s semiconductor manufacturing industry was reduced to zero overnight,” an entrepreneur who tweets under the name
Lidang wrote in a thread translated by Jordan Schneider, a senior analyst at Rhodium Group.

“Lots of people don’t know what happened yesterday,” Lidang explained.
“To put it simply, Biden has forced all Americans working in China to pick between quitting their jobs and losing American citizenship.
“Every American executive and engineer working in China’s semiconductor manufacturing industry resigned yesterday, paralysing Chinese manufacturing overnight.

https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/world-economy/chinas-semiconductor-industry-rocked-by-us-export-controls/news-story/a5b46fb3cfd2651be23a549c38b3e2d6

I wonder what is happening about the US owned and run fabs in China?

[fcb]

Apart from ASML, the other players in the market are Nikon/Canon - and there isn't much love lost between Japan and China - also their machines are somewhat behind ASML.

For EUV, only ASML have machines. Canon and Nikon stop at DUV.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/23/inside-asml-the-company-advanced-chipmakers-use-for-euv-lithography.html

Indeed - thanks.

EUV (14nm light) isn't the only game in town, DUV (193/248nm) is the dominant technology.
Also, I don't think EUV has ever been shipped to mainland China and there is possibly an embargo.

[coppice]

EUV (14nm light) isn't the only game in town, DUV (193/248nm) is the dominant technology.
Also, I don't think EUV has ever been shipped to mainland China and there is possibly an embargo.

EUV is the only game in town for the finest geometries. DUV will never be replaced for the coarser geometries, as the equipment is a small fraction of the cost of EUV equipment, and its throughput is far higher. The current EUV equipment allows 3nm and 2nm chips to be made very cleanly, but its throughput is terrible. ASML is working hard on next generation equipment to push that throughput up.

[PlainName]

Is news.com.au the only source for this? I've checked the UK papers and they are all obsessed with ministercide, but you'd think something of this import would make at least the footnotes. NYTimes has nothing either.

[Black Phoenix]

Is news.com.au the only source for this? I've checked the UK papers and they are all obsessed with ministercide, but you'd think something of this import would make at least the footnotes. NYTimes has nothing either.

https://www.bis.doc.gov/index.php/documents/about-bis/newsroom/press-releases/3158-2022-10-07-bis-press-release-advanced-computing-and-semiconductor-manufacturing-controls-final/file

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/us-chip-suppliers-pull-back-chinas-yangtze-memory-after-biden-ban

[Ranayna]

A couple of german sites are reporting on the new sanctions as well.
https://www.heise.de/news/Neue-US-Sanktionen-haben-das-Potenzial-Chinas-Halbleiterbranche-abzuschlachten-7309772.html
https://www.computerbase.de/2022-10/us-sanktionen-china-export-hochtechnologie/

A couple of sources mentioned in those articles:
https://www.heise.de/downloads/18/3/6/2/7/3/9/5/2022.10.07_BIS_Press_Release_Advanced_Computing_and_Semiconductor_Manufacturing_Controls_FINAL.pdf
https://www.scmp.com/tech/tech-war/article/3195875/tech-war-asml-lam-research-rush-pull-us-engineers-out-china-chip

[tom66]

I'm guessing there is a plan to be a plan to grenade ASML's latest kit in Taiwan should there be an invasion.

No need. The ASML kit is so heavily dependent on Western supply they would be able to tape out for months at best before sanctions killed that for good.  The EUV lasers last for about a month of operation before needing to be replaced, and they're manufactured in California.  No doubt other parts would require maintenance and replacement too, these are exceedingly complicated machines.

And the reality is the Taiwanese engineers, researchers, staff etc would be needed to run them and they would either refuse or they would sabotage work.  Imagine pouring say 1kg of flour into the air filtration system for some machines, that would damage work in progress and likely many machines would need overhauling. 

The worry is China decides the cost is worth it - if we can't have it no one can.  Dire consequences didn't stop Putin invading Ukraine, the Russian economy is down 15%.  China would probably fall by more, but bonkers zero-Covid policies have done their damage already.  All depends on whether the Chinese state really wants Taiwan or are just happy to remain in a permanent stalemate with the political benefits that brings.

[fcb]

Putin's Russia invaded Ukraine because he thought it would done inside a few days. Had he known what would happen he's strategy/timing would likely been very different.

President Xi Jinping's China won't move against Taiwan until they can guarantee success - they play a very long game.  The US is taking a calibrated move to slow things down.

Paraphrasing Max Planck: "Peace progresses one funeral at a time".

Vladamir Putin: 7 October 1952 (70)
Xi Jinping: 15 June 1953 (69)
Joe Biden: 20 November 1942 (79)

[TimFox]

History comment, not political:
There are many examples of military invasions that were launched in expectation of a quick victory that could not be maintained after the initial success, over a longer than anticipated conflict.
Examples:  Japan (Pearl Harbor), Napoleon (Russian campaign), Germany (WW I).

[MT]

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Tech/Semiconductors/Apple-freezes-plan-to-use-China-s-YMTC-chips-amid-political-pressure

TAIPEI/PALO ALTO, U.S. -- Apple has put on hold plans to use memory chips from China's Yangtze Memory Technologies Co. (YMTC) in its products, multiple sources told Nikkei Asia.
The move comes amid the latest round of U.S. export controls imposed against the Chinese tech sector and is a sign that Washington's crackdown is creating a chilling effect down the supply chain.
YMTC was also hit by the tighter export controls announced later the same day, aimed at China's broader chip sector. These new rules, among other restrictions, bar U.S. chip equipment makers from providing services or technical support that would help Chinese companies produce advanced chips.

YMTC's 128-layer memory chips fall under the scope of these rules.

[SiliconWizard]

Come on. However absurd or sick threatening people of canceling their citizenship is, who in their right mind would accept to lose one's citizenship over a job? Knowing that they probably don't have a chinese citizenship either, meaning that not only would they be stuck in China but without a citizenship. 

Wouldn't China offer citizenship and other incentives to stay to such critical personnel, especially if they are ethnic Chinese ?

Even if that was the case, choosing to lose american citizenship, again, over a job, is a pretty twisted decision to make. You'd have to love China and your job to accept that. A lot.
Plus, sounding as a threat as it does, the security of people choosing that path may not be all that uh, guaranteed. 

Anyway, this is a very sick american decision here. This isn't gonna end well, and we all know that.

[coppice]

Come on. However absurd or sick threatening people of canceling their citizenship is, who in their right mind would accept to lose one's citizenship over a job? Knowing that they probably don't have a chinese citizenship either, meaning that not only would they be stuck in China but without a citizenship. 

Wouldn't China offer citizenship and other incentives to stay to such critical personnel, especially if they are ethnic Chinese ?

China's rules seem to indicate that only people with at least a little Chinese blood can become Chinese citizens. However, there appear to be people with no racial connection to any place within the area of modern China that have Chinese passports. One thing they don't support is dual citizenship.

[Bud]

Where does this citizenship fantasy come from? I'd think countries have rules for granting and revoking citizenship. It is not a simple thing you do on a will.

This is what the press release says. Not a word about that 

7.) Restricts the ability of U.S. persons to support the development, or production, of
ICs at certain PRC-located semiconductor fabrication “facilities” without a license

Working without a license is not the same as losing citizenship, is it.

[Black Phoenix]

Come on. However absurd or sick threatening people of canceling their citizenship is, who in their right mind would accept to lose one's citizenship over a job? Knowing that they probably don't have a chinese citizenship either, meaning that not only would they be stuck in China but without a citizenship. 

Wouldn't China offer citizenship and other incentives to stay to such critical personnel, especially if they are ethnic Chinese ?

China's rules seem to indicate that only people with at least a little Chinese blood can become Chinese citizens. However, there appear to be people with no racial connection to any place within the area of modern China that have Chinese passports. One thing they don't support is dual citizenship.

I can talk about that. My kid is Chinese but allowed to have double nationality by my country and in China because one of his parents is foreigner.

Although when he is 18 he will have to choose one. Regarding me if I'm not mistaken if I want I can apply for Chinese citizenship if I spend 7 years in this country and work here/pay taxes. Although I will have to renounce my Portuguese citizenship (with a legal document from the Portuguese embassy proving that).

But there is a catch: there isn't a shared system between Portugal and China (same as between US/Canada and China and most European countries) so China only knows what you tell them or have documents to prove. If China reaches the Portuguese embassy to ask for info about me, my embassy denies providing it, including criminal one because there isn't an agreement to share such info (don't know about other countries).

The only way is by they requesting and I asking and providing it. So it means my kid, as most rich Chinese, can keep both citizenships, same as the daughter of the Huawei owner who had Chinese, Hong Kong and Canadian citizenship and others who have Australian or US.

[VK3DRB]

Embargoes against China will not work. China will import their chips via other manufacturers or markets. How easy will it be for some mule to travel to the US or Taiwan, buy up chips and "hand carry" a load back into China? They would see it as easy money and they won't get into strife like drug traffickers. Dogs are not trained to sniff out ICs. Besides, Customs are interested in what comes into a country, not what goes out.

The embargoes may also backfire. China could steal the IP and make their own. It is exactly what they did with advanced wind power electricity generators. They cyber hacked into an innovative US company that made the generators, stole the IP, and copying them at a lower price, sending the original US manufacturer bankrupt.

If China wanted to retaliate against embargoes, they could ban PCB's being made in China and exported to the West. That would screw us.

[madires]

The embargoes may also backfire. China could steal the IP and make their own. It is exactly what they did with advanced wind power electricity generators. They cyber hacked into an innovative US company that made the generators, stole the IP, and copying them at a lower price, sending the original US manufacturer bankrupt.

Just an entertaining side note. Long time ago when wind power started to become a thing over here, suddenly a bunch of very curious visitors turned up at wind power sites. They all had a US passport.

[VK3DRB]

The embargoes may also backfire. China could steal the IP and make their own. It is exactly what they did with advanced wind power electricity generators. They cyber hacked into an innovative US company that made the generators, stole the IP, and copying them at a lower price, sending the original US manufacturer bankrupt.

Just an entertaining side note. Long time ago when wind power started to become a thing over here, suddenly a bunch of very curious visitors turned up at wind power sites. They all had a US passport.

Could have been anyone, like genuine tourists. Maybe American ham radio operators dreaming of putting up a HF beam antenna on such a structure back home. Supports a rotator, no guy wires, climb inside the tower for servicing the antennas, a half wavelength from the ground on 80 metres . Or based on what the Teflon coated "intelligence" thugs in the CIA did to the innocent German citizen Khalid El-Masri, maybe they they were looking for a more convenient black site like inside a tower near the top where the screams can't be heard above the wind noise .

[SiliconWizard]

Where does this citizenship fantasy come from? I'd think countries have rules for granting and revoking citizenship. It is not a simple thing you do on a will.

This is what the press release says. Not a word about that 

7.) Restricts the ability of U.S. persons to support the development, or production, of
ICs at certain PRC-located semiconductor fabrication “facilities” without a license

Working without a license is not the same as losing citizenship, is it.

https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/world-economy/chinas-semiconductor-industry-rocked-by-us-export-controls/news-story/a5b46fb3cfd2651be23a549c38b3e2d6

[Kasper]

Maybe Biden follows Worldstar, saw this airdropped robot dog and decided it was time for drastic measures.

https://worldstar.com/videos/wshhJ187Z8J86IW9Hy8U/future-invasions-are-gonna-look-like-this-china-tests-their-airdropped-armed-robot-dog