Author Topic: How is Chipageddon affecting you?  (Read 297302 times)

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Offline AndyC_772

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Re: How is Chipageddon affecting you?
« Reply #1150 on: June 02, 2022, 01:50:11 pm »
OK, fair enough, can't argue with that.

My experience with other companies has been far worse, though. Looking you squarely in the eyes, Intel.

Offline Kasper

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Re: How is Chipageddon affecting you?
« Reply #1151 on: June 02, 2022, 08:24:27 pm »
TI chips are now seen by purchasing specialists as the absolute Kryptonite that is forbidden to have in the BOM of new designs.

That sounds like a sweeping generalisation. Could you supply reliable, concrete evidence that this is true please?

Doesn't really say much but I'm still avoiding Yageo after having to find replacements for a bunch of their discretes in 2018 and or 2019.  A minor problem compared to what is going on now and don't think Yageo was the only company to be short on discretes back then but they were the ones that let me down so they are the ones I now avoid.
 

Online JPortici

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Re: How is Chipageddon affecting you?
« Reply #1152 on: June 06, 2022, 08:31:52 am »
Get a load of this, a TI sales droid just emailed that i should register to this financing company so they can get the money faster and i won't lose inventory that could otherwise be "sweeped away"
I have no words
 

Offline rsjsouza

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Re: How is Chipageddon affecting you?
« Reply #1153 on: June 06, 2022, 10:00:36 am »
Get a load of this, a TI sales droid just emailed that i should register to this financing company so they can get the money faster and i won't lose inventory that could otherwise be "sweeped away"
I have no words
I wonder if this is an initiative from an individual or group of individuals acting on their own interests using the name of their larger employer. I have heard stories like these on other well established companies that ended with summary employment termination, but I obviously can't tell for sure.

Being a very large company that is focused on semiconductor manufacturing, I would find it hard to believe they would dab their fingers in the minefield of the financing sector... Thus I am cautiously skeptical.
« Last Edit: June 07, 2022, 09:19:33 pm by rsjsouza »
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Offline tom66

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Re: How is Chipageddon affecting you?
« Reply #1154 on: June 06, 2022, 10:12:04 am »
Can you post a redacted copy of this email, if you verify that it's legit?  It's a disturbing shift by TI if so.
 

Online JPortici

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Re: How is Chipageddon affecting you?
« Reply #1155 on: June 06, 2022, 11:23:05 am »
I actually read it now, at first i just read the preview.
This arrived to my personal email, as i'm registered too, haven't received one in the work account yet.
I am going to try and ask TI support about it, maybe it's just an overzealous dude as rsjsouza suggests

sender email f-***o@ti.com (initial of name, dash, surname)

Quote
Buongiorno,

consiglio di registrarsi ad Apruve per acquistare su ti.com con bonifico bancario a 30 giorni. Per attivare l’account ci vogliono circa 1-2 giorni, per quello suggerisco di farlo preventivamente per non trovarsi scoperti nel momento del bisogno e avere altri clienti che “soffiano via” il materiale. Qui il link per applicare:
https://apruve.com/apply-for-credit/

Stiamo investendo molto sul sito, essere abilitati nel migliore dei modi dará un vantaggio competitivo su altri clienti.

Grazie,
F******

F****** ******
Technical Sales Representative
Texas Instruments
Via Torri Bianche 6 – Palazzo Tiglio
20871 Vimercate (MB), Italy

Texas Instruments Italia S.r.l. con unico socio, P. IVA. e C.F. 01924560152. Sede legale: Quartiere Torri Bianche - Via Torri Bianche, 6 Pal. Tiglio, 20871 Vimercate (MB). Iscrizione al Registro delle imprese di Monza e Brianza n. 01924560152. Capitale Sociale i.v. Euro 100.000. La società è soggetta all’attività di direzione e coordinamento della Texas Instruments Incorporated
« Last Edit: June 06, 2022, 11:28:46 am by JPortici »
 
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Offline rsjsouza

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Re: How is Chipageddon affecting you?
« Reply #1156 on: June 06, 2022, 12:54:19 pm »
I also wonder if it is simply a hacked account (or a regular spam phishing)... Let us know how this goes.
Vbe - vídeo blog eletrônico http://videos.vbeletronico.com

Oh, the "whys" of the datasheets... The information is there not to be an axiomatic truth, but instead each speck of data must be slowly inhaled while carefully performing a deep search inside oneself to find the true metaphysical sense...
 

Offline tom66

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Re: How is Chipageddon affecting you?
« Reply #1157 on: June 06, 2022, 01:17:53 pm »
Apruve *seems* legit at first search:
https://apruve.com/

...so this is indeed a concerning message.  There doesn't appear to be any "affiliate" link so I can't see how the rep is benefiting from this, it's just how TI are managing credit now.  But they're essentially saying that to avoid the stock being bought up by others with more capital, borrow money so you can buy these parts instead.  Way to go on actually solving the problem (sarcasm).  And this will just lead to further inflation... just like extending mortgage affordability doesn't really allow more people to buy homes, as the prices go up in line with affordability...
« Last Edit: June 06, 2022, 01:19:44 pm by tom66 »
 

Offline MT

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Re: How is Chipageddon affecting you?
« Reply #1158 on: June 06, 2022, 08:38:46 pm »
 NOV 16, 2021 https://www.straitstimes.com/tech/tech-news/chip-shortage-creates-new-power-players
Quote
Many are favouring buyers who act more like partners, by signing long-term purchase commitments or investing to help chip makers raise production. Above all, the chip makers are asking clients to share more information earlier about which chips they will need, which helps guide decisions about how to lift manufacturing.
"That visibility is what we need," said Mr Hassane El-Khoury, CEO of chip maker Onsemi, previously known as ON Semiconductor.

Many of the chip makers said they are using their new power with restraint, helping customers avoid problems like factory shutdowns, and raising their prices modestly. That is because gouging customers, they said, could cause bad blood that would hurt sales when shortages end. Even so, the power shift has been unmistakable. "Today there is no leverage" for buyers, said Mr Mark Adams, chief executive of Smart Global Holdings, a major user of memory chips.

Marvell Technology, a Silicon Valley company that designs chips and outsources the manufacturing, has experienced the change in power. While it used to give foundries estimates of its chip production needs for 12 months, it began providing them with five-year forecasts starting in April. "You need a really good story," said Mr Matt Murphy, Marvell's CEO. "Ultimately the supply chain is going to allocate to who they think are going to be the winners."

It is a substantial change in psychology for a mature industry where growth has generally been slow. Many chip makers had, for years, sold largely interchangeable products and often struggled to keep their factories running profitably, particularly if sales slumped for items like personal computers and smartphones that drove most chip demand. But the components are essential for more products now, one of many signs that rapid growth may linger. In the third quarter, total chip sales surged nearly 28 per cent to US$144.8 billion, said the Semiconductor Industry Association.

Years of industry consolidation have also wrung out excess manufacturing capacity and left fewer suppliers selling exclusive kinds of chips. So buyers that could once place and cancel orders with little notice - and play one chip maker off another to get lower prices - have less muscle. One effect of these changes was to make chip factories more valuable, including some older ones owned by foundries. That is because new manufacturing processes have become so costly that some chip designers are not shifting to the most advanced factories to make their products. The result has been a demand crunch for less expensive production lines that are five to 10 years old.

So some foundries, in a major strategy shift, are beginning to put more money into older production technology. TSMC recently said it would build such a plant in Japan. South Korea's Samsung Electronics, a key foundry rival, has also said it was considering a new "legacy" factory.

« Last Edit: June 06, 2022, 08:40:29 pm by MT »
 
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Offline chickenHeadKnob

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Re: How is Chipageddon affecting you?
« Reply #1159 on: June 07, 2022, 01:28:36 am »
Apruve *seems* legit at first search:
https://apruve.com/

...so this is indeed a concerning message.  There doesn't appear to be any "affiliate" link so I can't see how the rep is benefiting from this, it's just how TI are managing credit now.  But they're essentially saying that to avoid the stock being bought up by others with more capital, borrow money so you can buy these parts instead.  Way to go on actually solving the problem (sarcasm).  And this will just lead to further inflation... just like extending mortgage affordability doesn't really allow more people to buy homes, as the prices go up in line with affordability...
There are two industries I can think of that are into financing their customers.  First is the auto industry, for obvious reasons, are heavily into getting people past the sticker shock and overspending. I think there were times when profits from the finance/lending arms of Gm and Ford carried those companies. The other company was the telco provider Nortel. Before Nortel went bust they were lending at insane levels. Something like 80%  plus of the order book was self-leveraged to boost the stock price to record levels.
 

Offline SilverSolder

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Re: How is Chipageddon affecting you?
« Reply #1160 on: June 07, 2022, 10:52:26 am »

Apple is also jumping into the “buy now pay later” market.  With Apple Pay Later, iPhone and Mac users in the US can pay for purchases in four instalments over six weeks. The system will work at any location that supports Apple Pay, online and in physical retail stores.

Basically, providing finance to your customers is a profitable side arm, and it increases sales in general so is a "Good Thing for the Economy" (TM)!
 

Offline Robotec

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Re: How is Chipageddon affecting you?
« Reply #1161 on: June 07, 2022, 11:43:41 am »
I´m in the Ti apocalypse, we need CC1190(RF range extender) for our product and used to be a 2 euro part now is being quoted at 57$(this morning), there are some alternatives like SE2435L but that requires a complete redesign of the RF part.

thinking about what to do right now in the company because at these prices projects are just not profitable any longer.

The funny thing is that when i mailed tech support for any help they told me that it could be changed for CC1125 which is a RF transceiver
 

Offline tom66

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Re: How is Chipageddon affecting you?
« Reply #1162 on: June 07, 2022, 12:42:43 pm »

Apple is also jumping into the “buy now pay later” market.  With Apple Pay Later, iPhone and Mac users in the US can pay for purchases in four instalments over six weeks. The system will work at any location that supports Apple Pay, online and in physical retail stores.

Basically, providing finance to your customers is a profitable side arm, and it increases sales in general so is a "Good Thing for the Economy" (TM)!

It's basically never been cheaper to borrow and so many people operate paycheque to paycheque so these kinds of policies appeal.  In the UK we have "Klarna" which offers a pay-in-3-months interest free credit.  Of course they charge the retailer for this, but at the same time insist that the pay-in-3 option cost the same as paying cash, effectively inflating the price for everyone who can afford to pay upfront.

Before the pandemic I remember the statistic being the average American couldn't afford a surprise $500 car bill, that's kinda terrifying.

Rent and other unavoidable bills are so high that many are left with almost nothing to budget for a bad event.  I have always tried to live on the idea of having a 6 months buffer in case I lost my job or something bad happened, but that's only possible if you have reasonable salary and/or low cost of living, and in many big cities it's difficult to get that combination unless you're in the tech sector or some similar sector.
 
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Offline PlainName

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Re: How is Chipageddon affecting you?
« Reply #1163 on: June 07, 2022, 01:34:21 pm »
Quote
a 2 euro part now is being quoted at 57$(this morning)

!
 

Offline IDEngineer

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Re: How is Chipageddon affecting you?
« Reply #1164 on: June 07, 2022, 01:39:37 pm »
True for my contacts as well. TI used to be favored, now is actively shunned. Purchasing departments push back HARD if you even mention TI. They've severely damaged themselves.
 
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Offline AndyC_772

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Re: How is Chipageddon affecting you?
« Reply #1165 on: June 07, 2022, 05:16:11 pm »
Of course they charge the retailer for this, but at the same time insist that the pay-in-3 option cost the same as paying cash, effectively inflating the price for everyone who can afford to pay upfront.

I'm not completely sure I'd agree with that. The retailer makes less on the pay-later sales, but that's only relevant if a significant number of people choose that option who would otherwise have made the same purchase all in one lump. Otherwise any reduced per-item margins are more than made up for by increased sales volume overall, which is why retailers choose to participate in these schemes in the first place.

What scares me about these schemes is that they market themselves as "budgeting tools" - as distinct, somehow, from "credit". There has been quite a lot in the news recently about this; seems the idea that "pay later == effectively free" is actually a thing that the Instagram generation genuinely believes to be true.

Offline Bassman59

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Re: How is Chipageddon affecting you?
« Reply #1166 on: June 07, 2022, 07:14:59 pm »
Of course they charge the retailer for this, but at the same time insist that the pay-in-3 option cost the same as paying cash, effectively inflating the price for everyone who can afford to pay upfront.

I'm not completely sure I'd agree with that. The retailer makes less on the pay-later sales, but that's only relevant if a significant number of people choose that option who would otherwise have made the same purchase all in one lump. Otherwise any reduced per-item margins are more than made up for by increased sales volume overall, which is why retailers choose to participate in these schemes in the first place.

What scares me about these schemes is that they market themselves as "budgeting tools" - as distinct, somehow, from "credit". There has been quite a lot in the news recently about this; seems the idea that "pay later == effectively free" is actually a thing that the Instagram generation genuinely believes to be true.

"pay later" appeals to those who cannot get or do not have "good credit" (which is to say a credit card). These deals were called "the installment plan" by retailers a generation ago. You'd go to your local department store like Sears and buy a couch and take it home and you'd pay Sears directly some amount of money each month until the couch was paid off. It was a way for Sears to sell couches to people who didn't have the full purchase price in cash at the time of the sale. Remember that 30 years or so ago, most people didn't have and couldn't get credit cards.

At some point the retailers started issuing their own store credit cards. The main difference between a credit card and the installment plan is that the former offers "revolving credit," which is to say, you can pay off the entire balance each month and incur no interest charges, or you can pay off some smaller balance, get charged interest for what you don't pay, and then the balance rolls over, and new charges just add to it.

You can see where this lead: Sears and others basically formed "banks" to manage the credit card operations. In the meantime, the traditional banks started expanding their offering of credit cards, and this lead to making it easy for anyone with a pulse to get a credit card. After all, the retailers like it as it moves product, and the banks like it, as they charge usurious interest for the people who can't pay in full each month.

We've reached the point where the store credit card is no more and every bank and credit union offers a range of credit cards with a range of perks, all designed to get the consumer to spend, spend, SPEND.

And that spend, spend, SPEND is dangerous for people who are financially innumerate and can't keep track of the spending and the interest, and it's dangerous for people who know full well they can not pay off the cards and avoid interest, but they need to buy necessities. (This latter point is part of the whole notion that "it's expensive to be poor.")

Now the full circle: installment plans are back. Apple was already doing them, in a sense: you could get approved for a credit card offered by an Apple partner, and charge the purchase of the new MacBook Pro to that card, and you could pay it off in a year, and there would be no interest charged if you paid the correct monthly amount. (Of course everyone knows Apple decided to get into the credit game and partnered with Goldman Sachs for the Apple Card, which is just another credit card but one with incredibly shitty customer service and management features. Fuck you, I don't want to manage my finances on a phone, thank you.)

This latest version of installments is back to the original idea: get products into the hands of customers who don't have the cash on hand and don't have credit. Apple isn't the only player in this field, but because they're Apple, they get all of the press.

I wonder two things.

One, since this isn't a credit card, does Apple report transactions (payments or lack of, balances, etc) to the usual credit data mining businesses Equifax et al? If not, then it does nothing for customers who need to build credit for other use (car loans, mortgages, mainly).

Two, what happens if the customer misses payments?
 

Offline TimFox

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Re: How is Chipageddon affecting you?
« Reply #1167 on: June 07, 2022, 07:53:30 pm »
I like the old British term for installment buying:  "On the never-never".
 

Offline floobydust

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Re: How is Chipageddon affecting you?
« Reply #1168 on: June 07, 2022, 08:15:56 pm »
It's likely there are tons of fake orders for semiconductors. Why not order all over the place and just cancel the order if you find some better priced parts or you end up not needing them. You don't have to pay until product is actually received. This would drive the 'pay in advance' policy.

TI broke ground on their 300nm Sherman, Texas fab, expected production in 2025.
What excellent foresight and planning, literally 2 years to make that decision, it was so hard :-DD
 

Offline tom66

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Re: How is Chipageddon affecting you?
« Reply #1169 on: June 07, 2022, 08:53:35 pm »
It's likely there are tons of fake orders for semiconductors. Why not order all over the place and just cancel the order if you find some better priced parts or you end up not needing them. You don't have to pay until product is actually received. This would drive the 'pay in advance' policy.

The backorders we have made have all been NCNR - non cancellable, non returnable. 
 

Offline coppice

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Re: How is Chipageddon affecting you?
« Reply #1170 on: June 07, 2022, 09:08:30 pm »
TI broke ground on their 300nm Sherman, Texas fab, expected production in 2025.
What excellent foresight and planning, literally 2 years to make that decision, it was so hard :-DD
It is EXTREMELY hard to make new fab investment decisions. They can exceed a year's total revenue for even a fairly large semiconductor maker, and they have a very limited life as a high revenue operation. The time it takes to build and ramp a fab can easily take you from a boom to the next bust, and the semiconductor industry has frequent deep destructive busts. Everyone committing to a new fab lives in fear of it coming on line in the next slump.
 
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Offline TimFox

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Re: How is Chipageddon affecting you?
« Reply #1171 on: June 07, 2022, 09:11:41 pm »
It's likely there are tons of fake orders for semiconductors. Why not order all over the place and just cancel the order if you find some better priced parts or you end up not needing them. You don't have to pay until product is actually received. This would drive the 'pay in advance' policy.

The backorders we have made have all been NCNR - non cancellable, non returnable.

I'm curious about NCNR:  what rights does the purchaser have to cancel if the vendor does not deliver in a timely fashion according to his backorder agreement?
 
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Offline PlainName

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Re: How is Chipageddon affecting you?
« Reply #1172 on: June 07, 2022, 09:54:00 pm »
Quote from: Bassman59
You'd go to your local department store like Sears and buy a couch and take it home and you'd pay Sears directly some amount of money each month until the couch was paid off. It was a way for Sears to sell couches to people who didn't have the full purchase price in cash at the time of the sale. Remember that 30 years or so ago, most people didn't have and couldn't get credit cards.

The typical arrangement here in the UK then was the use of 'catalogues'. Some local rep would come around with a massive catalogue of the stuff you'd find in a department store and you'd select a fridge or table or whatever and then pay it off at some small sum per week, which the rep would collect on his visits. I don't recall if there was some credit charge, only that it was a relatively painless way to buy things you needed. So long as you didn't buy too much at a time, of course. The usual thing was that as you paid off some item you'd just keep paying and get something else, so it was kind of like paying into a savings account.

I used that facility to buy a box of Draper tools for my new job as an apprentice mechanic in a garage - socket set, spanners, hammer (of course!), screwdrivers, etc. All these years later it's still my goto socket set and even the ratchet wrench still works perfectly, so I have to say it was a bargain and excellent way of acquiring decent tools.

Nowadays, I'd rather poke my eyes out that have any debt or subscription.
 

Offline floobydust

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Re: How is Chipageddon affecting you?
« Reply #1173 on: June 07, 2022, 09:54:28 pm »
It's mess no matter where you look at it.
NCNR not carved in stone - I see a cancellation charge, quarterly review for any mutually agreed changes. You can also reschedule. If it's a signed legal agreement, I'm sure the other side- where the delivery date/quantity/price- is also legally binding.
"...Cancellations: Buyer may cancel standard product at no charge with one hundred twenty (120) days written notice prior to ON Semiconductor’s shipment date..."
recently revised, used to be 30 days! I have not seen what disti's like Mouser or Digi-Key have for policies, hopefully they are scalper-proof (no bogus orders).
onsemi Standard Terms and Conditions of Sale
TI Returns, refunds & cancellations

As I've said, new fab decisions are not good for the bottom line, Wall Street is all about the short term gain and here we are.
Look at your sales and forecast with a ruler FFS. But instead they waited, played golf. TI has no commitment "... potential $30 billion investment... as many as 3,000 direct jobs..." so the fab looks like a wait and see.
Here come the government subsidies! The CHIPS for America Act credit for 40% of your equipment, ref. Sec. 48D b1 that de-risks quite a bit I think.
 

Offline SilverSolder

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Re: How is Chipageddon affecting you?
« Reply #1174 on: June 08, 2022, 12:08:55 am »
Of course they charge the retailer for this, but at the same time insist that the pay-in-3 option cost the same as paying cash, effectively inflating the price for everyone who can afford to pay upfront.

I'm not completely sure I'd agree with that. The retailer makes less on the pay-later sales, but that's only relevant if a significant number of people choose that option who would otherwise have made the same purchase all in one lump. Otherwise any reduced per-item margins are more than made up for by increased sales volume overall, which is why retailers choose to participate in these schemes in the first place.

What scares me about these schemes is that they market themselves as "budgeting tools" - as distinct, somehow, from "credit". There has been quite a lot in the news recently about this; seems the idea that "pay later == effectively free" is actually a thing that the Instagram generation genuinely believes to be true.

They aren't the first, and they won't be the last - and they'll all learn, eventually, the hard way in some cases!
 


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