How is Chipageddon affecting you?

[VK3DRB]

Now, the Chipageddon syndrome is spreading to many products we import from China. The forced quarantining of humans in China is now crippling Shanghai and now Beijing. Soon maybe Shenzhen and Guangzhou.

I have been warning for years it is dangerous to put all your eggs in the one basket. That is exactly what the West has done, in this case having China critical in the supply chains and in many cases, a single source. When you look at the big picture, we have been fools.

Geographical diversification of manufacturing is the answer. We were warned of this when the Sumitomo plastics plant burned down in the late 1990's causing memory and other chip prices to skyrocket globally. Why? Because there was no second source. We foolishly forgot about it. We cannot say, "no-one saw it coming".

Western companies and consumers are like lemmings falling over the cliff. Lessons learnt? I doubt it.

[IDEngineer]

There is a certain irony that the Chinese government's goal of COVID Zero is educating the world about the danger of relying on a single concentrated source. However, they're probably relying on short term amnesia on the part of MBA's and that's probably a safe bet. Again.

[SilverSolder]

[...]
Western companies and consumers are like lemmings falling over the cliff. Lessons learnt? I doubt it.

Maybe we just don't like working hard for low wages?  -  but I guess given the current climate, we may end up doing that anyway...

[VK3DRB]

[...]
Western companies and consumers are like lemmings falling over the cliff. Lessons learnt? I doubt it.

Maybe we just don't like working hard for low wages?  -  but I guess given the current climate, we may end up doing that anyway...

Its not just low wages. Third world countries tend to have weak environmental pollution regulations, and low occupational health and safety standards. The wake-up call to decentralise manufacturing from China was left too late.

Globalisation has reduced average wages here. Wage levels in Australia have barely risen in the last 20 years after politicians demanded wage restraint for workers (but ironically not for the politicians themselves). The standard of living for the poorer working class has declined considerably through not fault of their own. Even engineers have felt their wages have not increased that much, especially compared to house prices. In Australia, the rich are getting richer and the poor are getting poorer.

[tszaboo]

There is an old time saying, that you do engineering because you love it, not because it pays well.

Its that kind of mentality that keeps your salary down. How about an attitude like you can be so cost effective that it isn't worth your time considering low paid work?

Good luck with that against employers

Doesn't have anything to do with mentality.
Most just use a set salary bracket, with a max of around 4500-5000 euro per month before tax
As for 30 years olds, count on around 2800-3500 euro a month full time.
The exceptions are indeed FPGA designers and obviously ICT

https://blog.pragmaticengineer.com/software-engineering-salaries-in-the-netherlands-and-europe/
While this headhunter is working in the software field, the same is somewhat applicable to the engineering fields.
And I think we have to fight for it to be really applicable. This fight means standing up and quitting for higher salary. I understand there is a large number of EEss that have been working in the same job for 10+ years, and it is convenient for them. And I also had job interviews that were disconnected shortly after they asked how much I would like to earn (and I just said my current salary for a more senior position). The position wasn't filled for a year. If you can leave an engineering position empty for a year, you don't really need an engineer, do you?

[JPortici]

As for 30 years olds, count on around 2800-3500 euro a month full time.

yeah, that sounds about right
After employer's taxes, insurance etc that's about 1600 euro
After employee's taxes and the quote you have to put into welfare it's about 1300 euro
and that's how we get our low wages while papers keep quoting high average salary (they also count what the eomployee will never even see).

I'd rather pay more taxes on my side because at least i can deduct them (health expenses, mortgage, renovations, ...)
Though it's rather have the employer pay less (provided they give a job to more people to "mantain" the tax income or give the extra money to employees)

[tom66]

Listing salaries before tax is a common practice.  You can't know any individual's personal tax situation.  For instance they could work a second job, or owe the tax collectors money from last year. 

[spostma]

Some good news...

I use the TCA5405 (a nice litte self-timed 1-wire to 5 output IO expander from TI).

On the Mouser website, this chip is listed with 63 weeks delivery time.
Still I ordered 100 pcs from them two weeks ago.

I got a order confirmation mail from Mouser that stated expected delivery date on June 9 2022 (six weeks),
and today I got another email confirming that the production has been completed by TI.

The strange thing is that the Mouser website keeps telling you that the delivery time would be 63 weeks..
(see attached screendump)

The moral of this story is that apparently you should NOT be discouraged by long delivery times on the Mouser website,
but just order what you need trusting that the delivery time will be tolerable...

[AndyC_772]

The problem is that the delivery time *might* be tolerable.

On the other hand, it could be that they accept an order for components, with a reasonable lead time, then simply cancel it later on and you get nothing.

We've had exactly this, from Mouser, for a critical component that's a huge amount of work to replace. It's not Mouser's fault, the manufacturer just stated that the part was going on allocation, and distributors wouldn't be getting any for the foreseeable future.

For now, I stand by the advice I've given all my customers - buy the parts you'll need, whenever you get the opportunity to do so. If a design change is needed, we find the alternate component, then buy it, and only when they're sitting on the shelf do we actually update the CAD data and manufacture the updated product.

[JPortici]

Listing salaries before tax is a common practice.  You can't know any individual's personal tax situation.  For instance they could work a second job, or owe the tax collectors money from last year. 

then the papers here should quote 1600 not 3500 as the average montly salary, instead they prefer to be misleading by quoting also the part of salary you will never ever see as an employee

[spostma]

.. but in this case I got a mail from MOUSER telling that the chip production is completed, and expected delivery time will be 9 June.
Still the MOUSER website says 63 weeks... but I have confirmation that they know for weeks that the actual lead time is about 6 weeks!

[coppice]

Listing salaries before tax is a common practice.  You can't know any individual's personal tax situation.  For instance they could work a second job, or owe the tax collectors money from last year. 

then the papers here should quote 1600 not 3500 as the average montly salary, instead they prefer to be misleading by quoting also the part of salary you will never ever see as an employee

Complex tax payment arrangements are a feature, not a bug. They serve to obscure the real picture, at the minor cost of a massive useless bureaucracy to administer the whole mess.

[Bassman59]

Listing salaries before tax is a common practice.  You can't know any individual's personal tax situation.  For instance they could work a second job, or owe the tax collectors money from last year. 

then the papers here should quote 1600 not 3500 as the average montly salary, instead they prefer to be misleading by quoting also the part of salary you will never ever see as an employee

I don't know about the rest of the world, but in the USA I would expect to see gross salary listed, which of course is the number that doesn't include taxes and employee benefits like health insurance premiums.

[SilverSolder]

[...]
I don't know about the rest of the world, but in the USA I would expect to see gross salary listed, which of course is the number that doesn't include taxes and employee benefits like health insurance premiums.

Health insurance premiums is just another tax, if you think about it.   Try not paying it...

[IDEngineer]

That reminds me of property taxes. In most cases YOU don't really own your home and property. If you want to find out who REALLY owns them, try not paying property taxes for a while.

There are some states in the USA which are considering eliminating property taxes. The thinking goes that your home should not be at risk from government seizure. My home state of Idaho has a bill in the legislature on this right now, for example. I'm 100% in favor of it for several reasons, including that everyone - including renters, tourists, etc. - who is physically within the state benefits from state services and should therefore participate in funding them. If you live here year round, you will be paying sales and other taxes year round so your contribution automatically scales with your presence and consumption.

[tom66]

Property taxes are a pretty fair way of doing taxation.

Also, if you don't pay your income taxes,  or pretty much any other tax,  the IRS can seize your home too.  So I'm not sure your argument is really that special.

[TimFox]

In US history, the "single-tax movement" of the late 19th century advocated taxing only land value, not improvements nor income.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgism
Milton Friedman (no fan of taxation, but inventor of modern income tax withholding in the US during WWII) called it "the least bad tax".
There are very few places that tried this exact theory;  modern US state and local property taxes include the "improvement" on top of the land value.

[IDEngineer]

Property taxes are a pretty fair way of doing taxation.

Not sure I'd agree with that for a number of reasons, but that's a different discussion.

Also, if you don't pay your income taxes,  or pretty much any other tax,  the IRS can seize your home too.  So I'm not sure your argument is really that special.

That's federal vs. state/local government. If the state/local government explicitly excludes home seizure as an option (which is the point I was making about the proposal in Idaho), that's a separate decision from what your elected officials at the federal level choose to impose upon you. We tend to get the government we deserve/allow, so if we find fault with that we should be electing different people. I note with alarm that the recidivism (um, "reelection") rate for federal politicians exceeds 90%, so we may be in the minority who actually care.

Personally, I'm in favor of a retail-only National Sales Tax to fund everything. No income taxes, no withholding taxes, nothing but a retail sales tax. Last time I saw the numbers it would take a 17% rate to match all other federal tax collection. That would be added to whatever your existing sales taxes are, over and done. The advantages are endless. It would piggyback on the existing sales tax infrastructure in almost every jurisdiction so it would be ultra-efficient. Taxes would continue to be collected at the local retailers, then filtered up the chain with each layer keeping its slice. Instead of ~200M individual income tax returns, the fedgov would collect from 50 states and a few territories. No more loopholes for rich people, illegal aliens, etc. because they buy things just like everyone else wherever they happen to be. Exempting food, shelter, and medicines (easy to do, POS systems already apply different tax rates to different things) eliminates taxation of the poor; as they work their way up the ladder and start having discretionary spending money only those new dollars are taxed so it's inherently "progressive". Perhaps most importantly, people would have no more paperwork, no more reporting, no more penalties, no more anything. Just live your life, and as you buy the things you need you help fund the services you use.

I'm not talking about a VAT, which makes everyone in the economy a tax collector for the government. The NST is the polar opposite: Individuals and most businesses would have ZERO involvement with taxes. The goal is to MINIMIZE your "responsibilities" to the government. Just live your life. April 15th is just another day. And by the way, all layers of government enjoy a steady stream of revenue rather than huge peaks and troughs at quarterly boundaries and April 15th.

Hey, a guy can dream....

EDIT: I discussed the NST with a family member who is a staffer for a Representative from California, and he pointed out another benefit I hadn't even considered. Things like "stimulus" would be exceedingly easy to implement in times of things like COVID-19. Instead of having to fire up the printing presses to issue checks, making sure the taxpayer lists are accurate, that nobody is missed, etc. they could just dial the sales tax rate up or down as needed. Implementation becomes a few hours instead of weeks or months. Since he just went through this in the last couple of years this was very much on his mind and he was VERY enthusiastic about the NST for this reason, not to mention the others.

I should have also mentioned that the last time I saw the numbers, the cumulative non-governmental cost of federal tax code compliance was $600 Billion per year. That's Billion with a "B". Imagine returning that to the economy, every year, to do actual productive things.

[PlainName]

.. but in this case I got a mail from MOUSER telling that the chip production is completed, and expected delivery time will be 9 June.
Still the MOUSER website says 63 weeks... but I have confirmation that they know for weeks that the actual lead time is about 6 weeks!

They're not delivered until you're holding them. The parts might well have been manufactured and a delivery date worked out, but you still might not get them within 63 weeks

[VK3DRB]

.. but in this case I got a mail from MOUSER telling that the chip production is completed, and expected delivery time will be 9 June.
Still the MOUSER website says 63 weeks... but I have confirmation that they know for weeks that the actual lead time is about 6 weeks!

They're not delivered until you're holding them. The parts might well have been manufactured and a delivery date worked out, but you still might not get them within 63 weeks

Engineers cannot rely on "may be, could be, wait and see, and might be". We need accurate, deterministic, and honest information from suppliers so we can plan and engineer our work. If manufacturers and distributors cannot supply this basic supply information, the system is broken. China's COVID-19 has highlighted how poorly managed some chip companies in the West are.... not because they cannot supply chips, but because they cannot or will not tell us when they can supply chips.

[thinkfat]

IMHO, that is because they are after the big money mule deals and prioritize their stock accordingly.

[tom66]

@IDEngineer

A national sales tax - essentially a 'VAT' like we have in the UK is not a terrible idea, but I think you would need a lot more than 17%.  The UK's rate of VAT is 20% and it accounts for about 15-20% of our overall budgetary takings.   That seems to imply just on the numbers alone that the tax would need to be close to 100%, and that's assuming it doesn't just cause a further depression in spending.  VAT is collected on behalf of government by businesses and they are entitled to exempt business to business transactions,  which accounts for a further reduction in takings, but I don't think an economic system could function if B2B was taxed at the same rate as consumer.  BTW, I'm not sure how an NST and VAT would differ unless you eliminate the B2B aspect (which has negative impacts)

Increasing it much beyond 20% would punish poorer people who disproportionally spend money on goods compared to their income (the richer you are, the more you tend to use the money for investments and property, which generally wouldn't be taxed by a 'VAT'.) 

Income tax is a far fairer way to do this, and you can eliminate the 200 million tax returns by having the taxation service work it out automatically from payroll.  That's how it works in the UK.   They already have this data in almost every state, just Intuit lobbies aggressively to prevent it so they can sell their tax prep software.  Also, the tax should be equal no matter where the income comes from:  pension (if paid in tax-free), investment, sale of residential/commercial property, etc.  Same 'bands' and same percentages.  Lottery and prize winnings shouldn't be taxed, because you paid for the ticket with after-tax money.

[coppice]

A national sales tax - essentially a 'VAT' like we have in the UK is not a terrible idea, but I think you would need a lot more than 17%.  The UK's rate of VAT is 20% and it accounts for about 15-20% of our overall budgetary takings.

You've been desensitised. UK VAT on most things was 8% for many years, and we used to bitch about that.

[SilverSolder]

@IDEngineer

A national sales tax - essentially a 'VAT' like we have in the UK is not a terrible idea, but I think you would need a lot more than 17%.  The UK's rate of VAT is 20% and it accounts for about 15-20% of our overall budgetary takings.  [...]

If you think about it, the price of any good in a free market economy is "whatever the market will bear".   If you add VAT to the mix, then "whatever the market will bear" becomes 20% less, instantly...    so in that way, the tax is actually paid by the manufacturers/sellers as much as the consumers.

[AndyC_772]

That's true up to a point, though 'what the market will bear' depends on the price of competing products as much as any other factor.

If you're making a thing that people deem necessary (ie. there's relatively little elasticity in the price-demand relationship), then if your competitors all put up their prices 20%, so can you.

It's why price fixing cartels are illegal, of course, but if its not you that's increasing the price but instead it's a tax being applied, the end customer is still worse off.