How is Chipageddon affecting you?

[EEVblog]

We used to buy reels straight from TI.com. But last time they sent us a notification that "your part is back in stock!", we tried to buy a reel and they were limiting quantities to 50 pieces.
FIFTY PIECES?!? C'mon, if you usually buy reels 50 pieces ain't gonna cut it. They had plenty of stock, but they wouldn't sell you any sort of reasonable quantity.

Two words - Priority customers.

[tom66]

It's fascinating to watch the disconnect of the people in the USA who point at the UK system as the "ideal end goal". They must not read the British press nor speak to anyone living there.

The NHS is not perfect, but your opinion of the British people's opinion is, unfortunately, wrong:
https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/publications/public-satisfaction-nhs-social-care-2019

It enjoys broad support,  the problem as ever with any government organisation is that it is a beast that requires constant investment, beyond that of normal inflationary growth, and constant investment makes chancellors nervous.

[coppice]

It's fascinating to watch the disconnect of the people in the USA who point at the UK system as the "ideal end goal". They must not read the British press nor speak to anyone living there.

The NHS is not perfect, but your opinion of the British people's opinion is, unfortunately, wrong:
https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/publications/public-satisfaction-nhs-social-care-2019

It enjoys broad support,  the problem as ever with any government organisation is that it is a beast that requires constant investment, beyond that of normal inflationary growth, and constant investment makes chancellors nervous.

Health care is an oddity. For most things in life competition is the key thing that effectively drives the quality and value of products and services. However, most people don't want health care. They want to be well. Only people with serious mental issues want more health care than is necessary. There isn't even strong evidence that smoking, obesity, lack of exercise and other self abuse is significantly affected by their expected health outcomes. Much of the most costly and complex health care we need is stuff we need suddenly - accidents, heart attacked, pandemics, etc. - when we aren't in a position to shop around for a good deal. Its a terrible fit for any competition based model. The NHS isn't perfect, but no system where competition is not driving excellence will ever be. Is it better than most of the alternatives? International comparisons seem to indicate it does pretty well. Do people complain? Always and forever, about everything.

[palindrome]

The MCU for my product has not been available for ages, but I was able to find products that use it and I have been desoldering it and soldering on my boards.
It's a major pain. But now the sellers of that product say it is out of stock or hiked the price almost 10 times, which makes my product no longer viable.

Now one official distributor says the MCU will be available in January. From your experience how realistic it is? I am thinking about biting the bullet, taking a loan to pre-order a few hundred.
But if they don't arrive in January, it will be bad  I probably should try to buy from anywhere in the meantime anyway.
Then there is a risk I'll be sitting on a pile of MCUs I will no longer have use for (e.g. won't be able to sell that many products).

I was trying to do an alternative design, spent few months on that and then it turned out that alternative MCU that had good availability is no longer available 

I am sorry this post maybe makes no sense, but I am quite depressed by this.

[AndyC_772]

Your experience is just the same as the rest of us, I'm afraid.

The trick is to buy parts for your build first, *then* design them into a PCB once you have them physically in your possession.

It's a horrible way to work, but right now it seems to be the only way to guarantee that the board you've designed can actually be manufactured.

On the bright side, if you do end up with surplus components, you should find it a lot easier to resell them to someone else than usual. Normally I'd only ever buy from franchised distribution, and would never even consider buying on the secondary market, but that's not a luxury many people can afford right now.

[Howardlong]

Anecdotally, I have noticed over a period of time that Microchip on some of their parts are only stocking the extended temperature range versions. But at least they have those parts.

[m3vuv]

so what has supposedly caused this,has a manfacturing factory burnt down or rumors and panic buying?,ie what is the root cause?

[AndyC_772]

The short version is 'Covid-19'.

The long version also involves lots of ranting and rambling about the state of the supply chain, over-reliance on <insert practice here> by <insert industry here>, hoarding, speculation, and years of under investment in <thing> by <entity>.

[tom66]

Like almost every crisis the cause is multi faceted.

You have the extra demand for technology due to WFH & people spending more time at home (games consoles, TVs, VR headsets, graphics cards etc.)  Plus the service industry - Netflix, etc. buying more servers as an example.

Then you have the 'shock' to the industry caused by car manufacturers initially cancelling huge order books, then going "oh wait no we really want those, we'll pay $$$ to jump the queue."

And you have the shutdown/lockdowns due to COVID, and the extra social distancing/reduced staff count for various reasons in fabs and downstream suppliers, which will reduce the output flow.

There was also a fire at one semiconductor plant, and ST had a strike in Nov 2020,  all of those have impact on a system that runs very close to matching demand.

Hoarding (by Win-Source, etc.)  probably plays part of this but I doubt it is actually a huge % of the problem.   I think a bigger issue is companies will buy stock well ahead of predicted demand for fear of losing that stock later on to another buyer, which creates a lot of 'hidden inventory'.  This hidden inventory will eventually lead to a drop in demand for new parts.  Semiconductor companies are well aware of this, and it's one reason they are cautiously increasing supply, as they don't want to oversupply the market and have to pay for warehouse space (which is more expensive because many parts need to be stored in relatively controlled environments.)

[IDEngineer]

I have noticed over a period of time that Microchip on some of their parts are only stocking the extended temperature range versions.

I've noticed that, and also they often have the automotive-qualified parts but nothing "lesser". They're undoubtedly the exact same dies, just with better inspection. Wider temperature ranges and/or industry qualifications are a superset of standard parts so if they have limited die quantities it seems smart of them to qualify them as high as possible. That way the limited supply can serve in any capacity, with the impact that those only needing "lesser" grades can pay a premium and at least have parts. We have done that several times already - purchased a higher graded part than we actually require because it was the only thing available.

[TimFox]

Historically, vacuum-tube production in the US ramped up dramatically during World War II, for obvious reasons, resulting in a post-war "glut" of tubes on the market left over from the war effort.

[IDEngineer]

That used to happen with all sorts of military hardware, which led to the rise of "military surplus" stores in every town.

Sadly, the do-gooders now prevent that which meant no more access to many useful items. Apparently it sounds too scary to let mere taxpayers have access to {gasp} military equipment. You know, like those scary black shovels.

[floobydust]

Two words - Priority customers.

It reminds me of "allocation" in previous semiconductor shortages, cater to your big customers and death to the small guy. What's the point of all this global "we're so friendly" branding and marketing, "oh look at us at maker events" if at the end of the day, stone wall to small business, the makers, the creative small fish?

Adafruit grumbling about trying to get some Bosch sensor+MCU and I wasn't sure how to take it, because Bosch is all about their automotive customers and no one else, they've always been snobs. The new Dresden "fab" is apparently up 7/2021 and running for a while now.
We should do a video of trying to phone Mr. Big there and beg for parts, that would be funny. "Who are you again?" "How many parts you want?" CLICK.
This is a bit cringe worthy IMHO but I thought selecting allocation and priority customers, big corps need to stop using greed as their criteria.

[Kasper]

[...]
Adafruit grumbling about trying to get some Bosch sensor+MCU and I wasn't sure how to take it, because Bosch is all about their automotive customers and no one else, they've always been snobs. The new Dresden "fab" is apparently up 7/2021 and running for a while now.
We should do a video of trying to phone Mr. Big there and beg for parts, that would be funny. "Who are you again?" "How many parts you want?" CLICK.
This is a bit cringe worthy IMHO but I thought selecting allocation and priority customers, big corps need to stop using greed as their criteria.

Good video.  I liked the end, ~'chip shortage, bringing people together'

I've had a hell of a time getting IMUs. The latest one popped up on LCSC after I spent months looking. Decent price and shipped quickly.  Havent tested them yet.  It was labelled as altitude sensor.  Gives me a feeling drones are causing an increase in demand for them.  And phones and lots of other stuff of course.

[IDEngineer]

I've had a hell of a time getting IMUs. The latest one popped up on LCSC after I spent months looking. Decent price and shipped quickly.  Havent tested them yet.  It was labelled as altitude sensor.  Gives me a feeling drones are causing an increase in demand for them.  And phones and lots of other stuff of course.

That's been our most difficult part as well. Not sure it's drones, though. The drone flight controllers that I've worked on haven't used the IMU's that we can't find. Something else is consuming them too. Phones and tablets are part of it, I'm sure. Another HUGE part of it is that IMU's have some of the shortest lifespans in the industry. While most chips remain in production for years, even decades, I've seen multiple IMU's go from first samples to EOL in 24 months. No idea why. But doing that plays havoc with the supply chain because there's never enough parts in the pipeline and then it only gets worse when the latest part is declared NFFD. I'd really like to know why they cycle IMU's so frequently.

[cdev]

Its probably the Russian war on the Ukraine that is eating up the IMUs and related chips.?  Maybe?

[IDEngineer]

Definitely not. The IMU problem has existed since long before the skirmish began. And the equipment in use there, on both sides, wasn't built in the last 90? days.

[MT]

War monger and bankster cabal death news!
https://news.yahoo.com/raytheon-ceo-warns-delays-stinger-204325510.html
Raytheon Technologies, the maker of the thousands of Stinger missiles sent to Ukraine amid its war with Russia, will not be able to quickly produce more of the weapons due to lack of parts and materials, the company’s CEO said Tuesday.

Raytheon won’t be able to ramp up production of Stinger anti-aircraft systems until at least 2023, as the company must “redesign some of the electronics in the missile and the seeker head,” due to some components no longer being commercially available, CEO Greg Hayes told investors during a Tuesday earnings call.

That redesign is “going to take us a little bit of time,” Hayes said.

https://www.ft.com/content/1014282b-1309-440e-9eda-b8ebd18d55c9
US defence group Raytheon Technologies expects a boost to its sales as western countries supporting Ukraine replenish their missile supplies, though it warned of a near-term hit following its decision to permanently withdraw from Russia.

“We would expect . . . a benefit to the [Raytheon missiles and defence business] top line” and to the wider business, as defence budgets and replenishment orders increase over the coming years, chief executive Greg Hayes told analysts on the company’s first-quarter earnings call on Tuesday.

However, he said the financial benefits would not be immediate. For instance, the company’s Stinger missiles, which along with Lockheed Martin-co-produced Javelins have been “very successful” in Ukraine, need an electronic redesign and new materials sourcing, so orders for larger replacements will not come until 2023 or 2024.

“We have a very limited stock of material for Stinger production,” Hayes said. Raytheon is working with the US Department of Defense, which has not purchased a Stinger for 18 years, on resourcing materials.

[KE5FX]

Coming up next on The Onion: "Raytheon products found non-RoHS compliant, banned from European battlefields."

[SiliconWizard]

Raytheon is working with the US Department of Defense, which has not purchased a Stinger for 18 years, on resourcing materials.

And so that's Covid's and russian war's fault that parts are not available anymore, right?

[Kasper]

I've had a hell of a time getting IMUs. The latest one popped up on LCSC after I spent months looking. Decent price and shipped quickly.  Havent tested them yet.  It was labelled as altitude sensor.  Gives me a feeling drones are causing an increase in demand for them.  And phones and lots of other stuff of course.

That's been our most difficult part as well. Not sure it's drones, though. The drone flight controllers that I've worked on haven't used the IMU's that we can't find. Something else is consuming them too. Phones and tablets are part of it, I'm sure. Another HUGE part of it is that IMU's have some of the shortest lifespans in the industry. While most chips remain in production for years, even decades, I've seen multiple IMU's go from first samples to EOL in 24 months. No idea why. But doing that plays havoc with the supply chain because there's never enough parts in the pipeline and then it only gets worse when the latest part is declared NFFD. I'd really like to know why they cycle IMU's so frequently.

Massive increase in wearable sensor demand probably doesn't help.  I got burnt by a quick EOL too in 2018 or 2019.

[IDEngineer]

Coming up next on The Onion: "Raytheon products found non-RoHS compliant, banned from European battlefields."

OMG that's the best comment on here in a long time!

"That weapons system would really improve the safety of our troops, but sadly it's not environmentally correct so our personnel will just have to live (or die) without it."

[SiliconWizard]

There are exemptions for RoHS for a number of product classes, including medical devices (at least the implantable ones.)
I'd think the same for the aerospace and defense industries, but for the latter, I'll have to check.

[MT]

https://www.theregister.com/2022/04/28/semiconductor_firms_china_lockdowns_mess/
"We're seeing cases where [customers'] factories are shut down, and they just will not accept — they cannot accept deliveries," said Rafael Lizardi, CFO at Texas Instruments, on the earnings call.

"In other cases, the freight forwarders will not take our parts from our distribution centers to ship them to the factories in China, particularly in
the Shanghai area, because those are shut down," he added. Lizardi said while there are "dozens, if not hundreds," of factories shut down in China,
there are hundreds more operating at different levels, since COVID restrictions vary throughout the country.
"There are factories operating at zero, like complete shutdown. There are others operating at 20 percent, 50 percent and so forth," he said.

Lockdowns in China have been disrupting supply and demand for a variety of semiconductor companies amid broader challenges created by the ongoing global chip shortage.
Several publicly traded semiconductor companies discussed the impact of COVID-19 lockdowns in China at varying lengths during earning calls this week with analysts while
also pointing to other sources of disruption, including an earthquake in Japan and a power line fire in France.

For instance, Texas Instruments cut its revenue forecast by 10 percent for its second quarter, which ends in July, because multiple Chinese customers have not been able
to receive orders due to lockdowns, company executives said during its Tuesday earnings call

[thinkfat]

Coming up next on The Onion: "Raytheon products found non-RoHS compliant, banned from European battlefields."

Yep, that's correct, and we've also banned all ammunition containing lead quite a while ago.