How is Chipageddon affecting you?

[Kasper]

I started playing around with the idea of nesting a QFN28 footprint inside of the same part's QFN44 footprint. It actually works - the result is sort of like a starburst pattern - and the result would be the ability to use either package depending upon what was available. It just required the creation of a custom footprint which was not difficult. That particular board is on hold at the moment but the concept is still valid and I'm hoping to finish it soon.

Good idea.  I've been thinking about moving some parts onto breakout boards. Then I can slap whatever I can find onto a breakout without changing the main board.

[fourfathom]

My most recent board has a few components double-padded for two different footprints for otherwise compatible parts.  Also, I double padded a TCXO oscillator for the regular tiny SMD part, and for a big DIP footprint, allowing me to use a daughterboard that could potentially use any number of different parts.  Fortunately I had room to do this, but had to be pretty careful with the layout since these are 100MHz+ circuits and parasitics are not useful.

[tszaboo]

Same here, looking at imposing a 20% price increase myself: it's no longer possible to shoulder the costs without becoming unviable as a business.

This is not only the increased parts costs, but also the effects on cash flow, as I have to stock up on parts ahead of time and factor in loss of income due to unplanned delays beyond my control.

Western govs are dragging their heals on this situation: there is no light at the end of the tunnel in the short, medium or long terms. IMHO we need incentives for corps to make substantial long term local investment on plant now that China has unilaterally taken control of the global supply chain.

This is what I hear from upper management. It's not enough that these vendors have ripoff pricing, they also don't have company credit. So they want upfront payment for the parts, instead of paying later. So then we have trouble paying our regular suppliers, and incurr late payments for them.

Thy really have to take control of the situation. If an account buys something from Digikey to ship it to china, blacklist the company and liquidate their assets. At this point, it shouldn't matter whether or not what they are doing is legal. There are just so many illegal activities on both side, ie they are not fulfilling legally binding quotes, because they can sell the parts for more money.

[Alti]

Second way is to design for risky components or modules with alternative footprint and supply source.

I've been thinking about moving some parts onto breakout boards.

Looks like the most expensive path: a third way, an afterthought. First you design a product in chipageddon unawareness, hitting 52 weeks lead time, and then with pants down you start dealing with the new situation.

Same here, looking at imposing a 20% price increase myself: it's no longer possible to shoulder the costs without becoming unviable as a business.

Nobody is expecting you to keep the prices constant. The only goal of your company is to keep up with companies you compete against. Had they been dealing with chipageddon in a better way, increasing their prices only 10%, you would be out of business in a matter of several months. But maybe your competitors are like unaware carmakers - use the chipageddon to your advantage: decimate requirements, simplify design, use three Padauks or two 8051 instead of unobtanium32.

The cost of including alternative footprints, labour necessary for comparing datasheets or tweaking firmware, stocking components up-front, or designing several versions of PCBs do not threaten the future of your company. It is doing stupid things that does. Including doing business as usual and increasing price instead.

[Howardlong]

Inflation is real...

Reel of 3000 RF switches was £1,068 when I ordered in September (just shipped today) and is now priced at £1,668, a 56% hike since September, and about 140% increase since Covid started.

All prices from Mouser, 3ku reel break pricing.

Dec 2021 £1668
Sep 2021 £1068
Mar 2021 £1068
Jan 2021 £1068
May 2020 £705
Mar 2020 £690
Oct 2019 £501
Jul 2019 £465
May 2019 £465
Feb 2019 £465
Nov 2018 £465
Jul 2018 £429
Mar 2018 £420
Nov 2017 £435
Apr 2017 £459
Feb 2017 £447
Nov 2016 £432
Sep 2016 £408
Feb 2016 £441
Nov 2015 £378
Jun 2015 £390
Jan 2015 £379
Oct 2014 £375
Jun 2014 £354
Mar 2014 £384
Dec 2013 £411
Oct 2013 £423
Mar 2013 £429
Jan 2013 £408
Nov 2012 £402
Sep 2012 £414

[SilverSolder]

Inflation is real...

Inflation is reel?   


I just looked at replacing a saw blade for my table saw.  Cost in 2018 -  $32.  Cost to replace today - $59.


I decided not to replace it with the same model, and went looking for a cheaper alternative.


Basically, when prices go up, volume goes down...   all else being equal.  (My pay didn't double since 2018, so all else is not equal!)

[Kasper]

Second way is to design for risky components or modules with alternative footprint and supply source.

I've been thinking about moving some parts onto breakout boards.

Looks like the most expensive path: a third way, an afterthought. First you design a product in chipageddon unawareness, hitting 52 weeks lead time, and then with pants down you start dealing with the new situation.

I work at a startup and warn the bosses constantly about chipageddon.  They always delay HW spending.  They claim they can't afford it yet they somehow can afford to hire people for sales, marketing and project management, despite the fact we don't have a saleable product yet.  They can also afford to pay the expedite prices to get builds done in 2 weeks instead of 4 weeks.

[tom66]

We got a quote recently for Xilinx Kria SoM on a 66 week lead time.    That sits on 16nm node which is shared across a lot of technology and high end automotive.

Xilinx also putting the prices up for their 6 series stuff as all of Samsung's capacity has been bought up by Apple.   More or less with dumptrucks full of cash.  Xilinx are moving the 6 series to TSMC.  I wonder how they can retain PVT and design tolerances moving to an entirely different fab?  FPGA designs are surely going to need rebuilding...

I had hoped the industry would calm down into 2022, but it seems it hasn't really.  Might see some parts come out of allocation and back into stock later on this year but shortages will persist.

The world desperately needs more fab capacity and for the likes of Apple to not be able to monopolise it all.

[cortex_m0]

The world desperately needs more fab capacity and for the likes of Apple to not be able to monopolise it all.

I think the chip manufacturers are getting the message. There have been a bunch of new manufacturing facilities announced just in the last couple of months:

* Texas Instruments is building a fab in the United States (on top of two others TI previously had in progress)
* Samsung is building a new fab in the United States
* SK Group is building a new fab in the United States
* Sony and TSMC are jointly building a fab in Japan
* ROHM is building a test & assembly plant in Malaysia
* Taiyo Yuden is building a new ceramic capacitor factory in China
* Vishay is building a fab in Germany for their MOSFET products
* ST just began qualification runs on a newly constructed fab in Italy
* Bosch is building a new test & assembly plant in Malaysia

However, many of these won't be producing material until 2023-2025.

[VK3DRB]

The world desperately needs more fab capacity and for the likes of Apple to not be able to monopolise it all.

I think the chip manufacturers are getting the message. There have been a bunch of new manufacturing facilities announced just in the last couple of months:

* Texas Instruments is building a fab in the United States (on top of two others TI previously had in progress)
* Samsung is building a new fab in the United States
* SK Group is building a new fab in the United States
* Sony and TSMC are jointly building a fab in Japan
* ROHM is building a test & assembly plant in Malaysia
* Taiyo Yuden is building a new ceramic capacitor factory in China
* Vishay is building a fab in Germany for their MOSFET products
* ST just began qualification runs on a newly constructed fab in Italy
* Bosch is building a new test & assembly plant in Malaysia

However, many of these won't be producing material until 2023-2025.

They are not getting this message: Their senior management have failed to communicate to their customers is going on.

They should have information on their websites about when specific existing parts are expected to be in plentiful supply for the little guy at reasonable prices, rather than just leaving us all guessing.

[SilverSolder]

The world desperately needs more fab capacity and for the likes of Apple to not be able to monopolise it all.

I think the chip manufacturers are getting the message. There have been a bunch of new manufacturing facilities announced just in the last couple of months:

* Texas Instruments is building a fab in the United States (on top of two others TI previously had in progress)
* Samsung is building a new fab in the United States
* SK Group is building a new fab in the United States
* Sony and TSMC are jointly building a fab in Japan
* ROHM is building a test & assembly plant in Malaysia
* Taiyo Yuden is building a new ceramic capacitor factory in China
* Vishay is building a fab in Germany for their MOSFET products
* ST just began qualification runs on a newly constructed fab in Italy
* Bosch is building a new test & assembly plant in Malaysia

However, many of these won't be producing material until 2023-2025.

By then, a 2N3904 will cost $50, so the plants can be profitable! 

It is all making sense now.

[cortex_m0]

They should have information on their websites about when specific existing parts are expected to be in plentiful supply for the little guy at reasonable prices, rather than just leaving us all guessing.

There is no date in sight when there will be plentiful open market inventory. That will happen only after customers with actual booked orders are receiving their parts in an orderly fashion, which presently is not happening.

Not even the high powered executives have the crystal ball you want.

[jrs45]

Analog Devices has delayed my order, which was due 3 months ago, by TWO ADDITIONAL YEARS.  And they now want me to beg for the parts by justifying to them how badly I need them.  Absolutely insulting and ridiculous. 

[Bud]

However, many of these won't be producing material until 2023-2025.

Sounds a perfect opportunity to go back to the roots and make designs using glue logic 

[SilverSolder]

However, many of these won't be producing material until 2023-2025.

Sounds a perfect opportunity to go back to the roots and make designs using glue logic 

I was just going to say...   it's as if civilization has taken a step backwards, and we have to drop back to lower tech! 

This kind of environment may offer opportunities to engineers / companies that can make things work with what's available?

[IDEngineer]

This kind of environment may offer opportunities to engineers / companies that can make things work with what's available?

See "Apollo 13".

[tszaboo]

The world desperately needs more fab capacity and for the likes of Apple to not be able to monopolise it all.

I think the chip manufacturers are getting the message. There have been a bunch of new manufacturing facilities announced just in the last couple of months:

* Texas Instruments is building a fab in the United States (on top of two others TI previously had in progress)
* Samsung is building a new fab in the United States
* SK Group is building a new fab in the United States
* Sony and TSMC are jointly building a fab in Japan
* ROHM is building a test & assembly plant in Malaysia
* Taiyo Yuden is building a new ceramic capacitor factory in China
* Vishay is building a fab in Germany for their MOSFET products
* ST just began qualification runs on a newly constructed fab in Italy
* Bosch is building a new test & assembly plant in Malaysia

However, many of these won't be producing material until 2023-2025.

They are not getting this message: Their senior management have failed to communicate to their customers is going on.

They should have information on their websites about when specific existing parts are expected to be in plentiful supply for the little guy at reasonable prices, rather than just leaving us all guessing.

Bigger problem is, it takes 2-3 years at least to get these operational. Then they start qualification of existing products, which is more time wasted.

[Alti]

I work at a startup and warn the bosses constantly about chipageddon. (..)

That reminds me the discussion we had here about doing not your job.
Warning your boss is a job of a CEO and not your job.
Focus on electronics, burn the energy gaining skills and experience in your field instead.

[Kasper]

I work at a startup and warn the bosses constantly about chipageddon. (..)

That reminds me the discussion we had here about doing not your job.
Warning your boss is a job of a CEO and not your job.
Focus on electronics, burn the energy gaining skills and experience in your field instead.

My boss is CEO, does not have much electronics background.  I'm the only HW/mech design, purchaser, inventorier, assembler in the company.  This same boss also wants me to look into long range wireless charging.  He is generally a good boss and smart guy but the company does better with my guidance.  It is also in my benefit to drive the company forward to reduce the chance of being laid off if company goes bankrupt, also as a holder of stock options and as someone who wants another 'world's first blah blah designed and built quickly' on my resume.

[Kasper]

I backordered some parts on mouser and waited a week for the ETA to arrive.  A few days after the ETA expired they changed the ETA to 'unknown' and the part lead time is now 95 weeks.  When I got that email I checked octopart and found arrow just rx'd the same parts and were offering the 200 parts for about $50 less.

[tom66]

4000 Bosch IMUs appeared on Digi-Key today, but they disappeared about 5 minutes later.  Crazy.

[IDEngineer]

Which model of Bosch IMU's?

[SiliconWizard]

However, many of these won't be producing material until 2023-2025.

Sounds a perfect opportunity to go back to the roots and make designs using glue logic 

I was just going to say...   it's as if civilization has taken a step backwards, and we have to drop back to lower tech! 

This kind of environment may offer opportunities to engineers / companies that can make things work with what's available?

Yeah but no. Because you just don't know what's going to be available or not.

[Kasper]

4000 Bosch IMUs appeared on Digi-Key today, but they disappeared about 5 minutes later.  Crazy.

ugh ffs.

I think one of the reasons it's so hard for manufacturers and distributors to give estimates is they have no idea how much hoarding and over bidding is going to happen.

[tom66]

Which model of Bosch IMU's?

BNO055.

We caught it with 182 left, but couldn't buy in time.

They're $4 parts normally, but WinSource etc. have them at $60 each...