How is Chipageddon affecting you?

[cortex_m0]

The ATSAMA5D27C-LD2G-CU MPU from Microchip is now no longer available anywhere, until April 2022 . I need qty 350 now for an engineering pre-production build.

1Gb version has decent stock today. ATSAMA5D27C-LD1G-CU. I don't know how badly the reduced RAM would hurt you, but if that's the difference between boards in August or April, my bosses would normally tell the software guys to live with it.

[EEVblog]

The ATSAMA5D27C-LD2G-CU MPU from Microchip is now no longer available anywhere, until April 2022 . I need qty 350 now for an engineering pre-production build.

1Gb version has decent stock today. ATSAMA5D27C-LD1G-CU. I don't know how badly the reduced RAM would hurt you, but if that's the difference between boards in August or April, my bosses would normally tell the software guys to live with it.

Another option might be to build the processor onto a daughter board and ship the lower memory version now and then send free upgrades to the larger ones when available. If that's psosible software-wise of course.

[rx8pilot]

Another option might be to build the processor onto a daughter board and ship the lower memory version now and then send free upgrades to the larger ones when available. If that's psosible software-wise of course.

I rearranged one of my projects like this. It essentially became a backplane with a bunch of modules that I expected a struggle with parts. It got too complex and still too many parts were becoming unavailable. Alternates each had some sort of cost in software development. It got expensive and complicated so I just put the project on hold.

I really exhausted myself trying to keep it alive.

[VK3DRB]

The ATSAMA5D27C-LD2G-CU MPU from Microchip is now no longer available anywhere, until April 2022 . I need qty 350 now for an engineering pre-production build.

1Gb version has decent stock today. ATSAMA5D27C-LD1G-CU. I don't know how badly the reduced RAM would hurt you, but if that's the difference between boards in August or April, my bosses would normally tell the software guys to live with it.

I only did the hardware design on this, not the firmware design. The firmware guys said 2Gb is definitely needed.

[VK3DRB]

The ATSAMA5D27C-LD2G-CU MPU from Microchip is now no longer available anywhere, until April 2022 . I need qty 350 now for an engineering pre-production build.

1Gb version has decent stock today. ATSAMA5D27C-LD1G-CU. I don't know how badly the reduced RAM would hurt you, but if that's the difference between boards in August or April, my bosses would normally tell the software guys to live with it.

Another option might be to build the processor onto a daughter board and ship the lower memory version now and then send free upgrades to the larger ones when available. If that's possible software-wise of course.

May be possible. Software will be almost identical, except for the few configuration switches in the bootloader software.

Unfortunately the product is already going through regulatory approvals (we made 100 units earlier for clinical trials and regulatory approvals) including the horrible CE RED meaning any change in the enclosure or the electronics theoretically results in a complete retest - the device has radios in it, and it is going for global IEC-60601 approvals. That will be a pain in the arse and hip pocket if we have to go hit the restart button on the testing.

There in no room in the plane of the PCBA for a daughter board (one reason I used this integrated chip in the first place). I am pretty sure there is next to no room in the Z-axis because just above the chip is the shield of an LCD matrix display, but I need to check. The costs and delays in changing the complicated enclosure plastic moulding would be prohibitive. The chip is a 361-pin BGA was not easy to layout due to its much less than ideal pin assignments. It needed an eight layer PCB for it and all the peripheral circuitry. The pinout assignments are totally different between the two processor types. Plus I have to consider decoupling caps for the LPDDR2. Biggest issue is if the manufacture can mount a daughter board with a 361-pin BGA interface. It will add cost, no doubt.

I think we either contact trusted brokers for the 350 or delay the project. Brokers might change an extra $10 per chip. That will be much, MUCH cheaper than putting on a daughter board. And I keep whatever sanity I have left intact.

[VK3DRB]

I checked. I have 2.0mm total Z-axis clearance from the PCB to the shield. Therefore 2.0mm has to cover the two chips, the daughter board thickness, the solder balls, decoupling caps, and any variances. The daughterboard would need to be be 6 to 8 layers with blind vias because the pin mapping is very different and there are multiple power planes too. It is possible to do but it would be a pain . If I had to do this sort of thing for every instance where key parts are not suddenly not available, I'd rather be in jail.

[EEVblog]

I think we either contact trusted brokers for the 350 or delay the project. Brokers might change an extra $10 per chip. That will be much, MUCH cheaper than putting on a daughter board. And I keep whatever sanity I have left intact.

Yep, if you can actually get them by hook or by crook, pay anything.

[EEVblog]

74 available on 16th Aug:
https://www.onlinecomponents.com/en/microchip-tech./atsama5d27cld2gcu-50775503.html

And this mob claims stock:
https://www.alibaba.com/product-detail/-Electronic-Components-IC-Semiconductor-chip_62135921440.html?spm=a2700.galleryofferlist.normal_offer.d_title.5b01142cMAdffl

[chickenHeadKnob]

There is something I find mystifying about the current shortage compared to any that I have previously lived through. In the past there was some sense as to why and what parts were affected. Particularly the periodic DRAM  events that would happen. Now it is such a broad spectrum of parts across a vast span of geometry nodes I can not see the reason. Even with greater  competition amongst fabless outfits for the most popular FAB nodes how do  you explain low integration analog parts also going out of stock.

For example the volt nut precious LTZ1000 has been going in and out of stock everywhere even before the coof virus hit. I scored 6 last month from Chip1stop in Japan by pouncing the moment they appeared. They just stocked again with 20 iffn yer lookin'. These are expensive boutique parts, they aren't going into web cams, servers or gamer rigs, or the ford focus rolling down the street.

[Alti]

I think that there are only two practical ways to deal with external risks of supply chain. I am not a manager so this is is an ee point of view.

First one is to stock all parts of the batch upfront.

Second way is to design for risky components or modules with alternative footprint and supply source. I have seen many products that go exactly this path: there is one PCB footprint that accommodates 48 or 64 pin package, 5mm and 7.5mm spacing capacitor, two land patterns for memory chips, or a daughterboard, tons of jumpers, but by design and not as an afterthought. This could also include spinning two/three parallel PCB versions of same design, again by design. From customer's point of view this looks like same products with identical functionality but for supply chain these are different sets with different BOMs. Possibly with different certification, firmware, risks, revisions, recalls etc.

I suspect the sweet spot is the mix of two methods but that depends on the constraints involved. If the project is not critical, risks can be accepted and size of PCB is a problem, a single point of failure in supply chain might be justified by high returns on investment. But if a company does not stock any components and relies on an item from one source in key product then the only hope here is that all the competitors failed same way.

However, if competitors picked first path (batch purchase) or second path(design for flexibility in supply chain), they are going to run over your dead body.

Since these are the only two options (that I see), I am convinced both options compete with each other (within each company) and as such both are viable and must cost about the same. From here it is evident some companies are going to take first path and get involved in serious shopping. Especially for products where second path is expensive (certification, size constraint, etc).

[mikeselectricstuff]

I just got a quote on connectors which usually cost $2-3.

100 pieces were quoted at $14 each.

That is not a typo.

It's not just semiconductors....

Yep, even stuff like bog-standard JST PH connectors, fortunately there are knockoffs available.
Hard to understand as the production pipeline can't be anywhere near as long a semiconductors.

[EEVblog]

Yep, even stuff like bog-standard JST PH connectors, fortunately there are knockoffs available.
Hard to understand as the production pipeline can't be anywhere near as long a semiconductors.

It's the order pipeline that can matter. If it's bigger than the production pipeline, than it can also extend toward infinity.

[IDEngineer]

Second way is to design for risky components or modules with alternative footprint and supply source.

We often do this for smaller parts, and we're doing a couple of board respins right now to generate "alternative" PCB's that are functionally identical but use different MCU's. The QFN's we typically use are running low, but (in one case) there are huge stocks of the TQFP packages. So we'll have multiple boards per product. We have the board shops make the PCB's fresh for each production run, so Purchasing will first secure whichever parts they can find and THEN place the order for the PCB that accommodates those packages.

From the outside, nothing changes. The products are 100% interchangeable, can be swapped in the field, etc. I suspect even the dies inside the packages are the same and the bond wires are just selectively placed.

PITA but it keeps Production running.

[IDEngineer]

There is something I find mystifying about the current shortage compared to any that I have previously lived through. In the past there was some sense as to why and what parts were affected. Particularly the periodic DRAM  events that would happen. Now it is such a broad spectrum of parts across a vast span of geometry nodes I can not see the reason. Even with greater  competition amongst fabless outfits for the most popular FAB nodes how do  you explain low integration analog parts also going out of stock.

The difference this time is, it's not just limited to the electronics industry. It's across all industries, from raw materials to the delivery of finished products.

Example: A five-year project has been delayed another whole year because we can't get certain mechanical components. Delivery of these 4 week ARO devices is now "26 weeks and no promises" (direct quote). When you dig into it, the reason isn't our supplier... nor the manufacturer... it's the casting vendor waaay up stream, who cannot get the raw ingots of steel and aluminum to cast the housings to get the whole process started!

When COVID-19 started, contracts were cancelled up and down the supply chain. Folks here are aware of the automotive impact on the semiconductor industry, but that happened in every industry - including metal foundaries. Those foundaries accepted alternative contracts with other customers, and now the original customers are caught in a trap of their own making (well, of COVID-19's making, anyway).

Another example: The power outages in Texas shut down a bunch of refineries. Those don't just produce gasoline... they also produce components of plastics, resins, and all sorts of other things used in every industry you can think of. Most IC's are packaged in plastic, for example. If you can't get the plastic for the package, it doesn't matter if you have the wafers - you can't ship product.

Another example: That sideways ship nonsense in the Suez Canal, which affected shipping worldwide.

Another example: The dramatic reduction in commercial airline travel in 2020. Most of the "big shippers" buy spare capacity on commercial airlines. This includes UPS, FedEx, and the postal services of most countries. When those flight schedules got pared way back, so did their shipping bandwidth. That ripple effect is still being cleaned out, and it explains why "2 day shipping" became much longer in many cases.

So yes, this time is indeed very different from the occasional shortages in the electronics industry. This event hit everyone, everywhere. COVID-19 is a multiyear event. 2020 was the height of the medical threat. 2021 appears to be the socio-economic recovery year. Many folks in various industries openly state they don't expect things to be back to "normal" before 2022, maybe even MID-2022.

Then there's printing all that cash for "economic recovery" by multiple governments worldwide. That has to lead to inflation, by definition, and inflation has been artificially suppressed since the late 2000's. The pressure's been building for a decade, and now we top it off with a flood of new cash in the name of "stimulus". All the news reports about inflation are very real, and come on top of the price increases caused by the shortages mentioned earlier. Not sure how this is all going to resolve out but it's a toxic mix for sure.

[T3sl4co1l]

Another example: The dramatic reduction in commercial airline travel in 2020. Most of the "big shippers" buy spare capacity on commercial airlines. This includes UPS, FedEx, and the postal services of most countries. When those flight schedules got pared way back, so did their shipping bandwidth. That ripple effect is still being cleaned out, and it explains why "2 day shipping" became much longer in many cases.

Not to mention, political meddling in the USPS, tanking their sorting capacity.

Then there's printing all that cash for "economic recovery" by multiple governments worldwide. That has to lead to inflation, by definition, and inflation has been artificially suppressed since the late 2000's. The pressure's been building for a decade, and now we top it off with a flood of new cash in the name of "stimulus". All the news reports about inflation are very real, and come on top of the price increases caused by the shortages mentioned earlier. Not sure how this is all going to resolve out but it's a toxic mix for sure.

Inflation is a non issue.  The supply of fiat currency is increased or decreased, on demand, to keep inflation steady (along with interest rates and other devices).  The money supply literally doesn't mean anything, it's fiat, it's what people think it is.  They're not, like, stealing from you, any more than they're also giving back through the same mechanism.  It's not a boogeyman.

The housing bubble however, affects everyone, not just through the financial industry ala 2009, but because people need to live in them too!  Will be...interesting to see when that pops...

Tim

[Gribo]

My day job facility (contract mfg) is currently at ~50% utilization because of part shortages. Some customers have enough buffer (Intel 80486DX2s, MC68332s anyone?), others don't.

[IDEngineer]

If inflation is a non-issue, why do they prosecute counterfeiters?

[T3sl4co1l]

If inflation is a non-issue, why do they prosecute counterfeiters?

Earnestly, or is that a standard quip, or leading into a bad faith argument..?

First and foremost, the government reserves the right to that, for better or worse.  As the government has a monopoly on violence, for better or worse, so too on the money supply.

Also, they likely didn't understand the systemic effect of counterfeiting, at the time such laws were written.  At least as we understand economics today.  It's simply traditional that sovereigns have a right to mint/print their own money, and to authorize and enforce its common use.

So, that's a sufficient explanation alone, but doesn't address the point in context.

As for that, for the systemic effect of counterfeiting: if there's no penalty to doing so, then the money supply is completely unregulated, and in particular there's no cap on it.  So everyone just prints whatever they need for the day, say, and repeat ad nauseum.  What would that even look like... I guess, common people (without printers) would be screwed, having to get second-hand bills from sources, therefore at considerable expense (inflation); while the larger economy (i.e., mostly that of capital -- specifically, those who own printers, especially lots of them) operates much as it does today, but not in terms of face value of bills, but on a more basic level, such as the amount they are able to produce -- regardless of the face value, which is always going up exponentially (and who's to say what denominations are legal tender anymore, who could keep track of them?) so really doesn't mean anything at all, and it's actually a transformation of the real material value of the resources used to make it (capital, paper, ink, energy).

So, a similar function as trading barrels of oil today.

So, clearly, some authority needs to say, nah you can't do that.  People will naturally do this, discarding the "official" bills, resorting to trading more stable stores of value; and, basically we're back to barter.  Perhaps a harder-to-fake medium will be discovered/developed, and that'll last as long as it takes for everyone to retool their printers, or obtain the raw materials, etc., and then it's a race to the next medium and so on.  (We've seen this multiple times in MMORPGs where money farming exploits have been repeatedly discovered.)  That's a very... emergent or anarchist sort of approach.  Or perhaps enough people will get together, to effectively ban counterfeiting, nominating an exclusive and controlled source, and prosecuting violators.  Well, then you'd have more or less what we do, give or take how many people have really agreed upon this thing we call "government".

Put another way: I put a regulator on my power supply because I need to add or remove controlled amounts of charge to the system, I can't just plug it into the wall outlet and go.  A regulated money supply can be adjusted up or down, while a truly unregulated supply, basically can't even exist as such anyway.

Tim

[IDEngineer]

Earnestly, or is that a standard quip, or leading into a bad faith argument..?

It's a serious point.

The law of supply and demand is absolute. If you double the supply of something, each of those somethings loses value. They are easier to get, less "rare", and therefore have less value.

For currency, value means "purchasing power". If a government floods their economy with currency - absent any growth in that economy to justify the increase in currency - then each unit of currency becomes less valuable. Each unit of currency represents a smaller fraction of that economy. As noted in https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_supply: "There is strong empirical evidence of a direct relationship between the growth of the money supply and long-term price inflation, at least for rapid increases in the amount of money in the economy." The COVID-19 stimulus events certainly meet the definition of "rapid increases in the amount of money in the economy".

There is a lot of material out there on this topic. I was just pointing out that one of the factors contributing to the recent shocks to virtually all industries worldwide is the unprecedented dumps of fresh money into the economies of most nations. That cannot have zero impact, and the rising prices of almost everything from industrial goods to groceries is, I suspect, partially due to this effect. Unlike other reasons, dramatic increases in the money supply are basically impossible to unwind so those effects will likely be very long lasting.

[SilverSolder]

[...] dramatic increases in the money supply are basically impossible to unwind so those effects will likely be very long lasting.

Excellent post, I would just say that there are ways to "mop up" excessive money if it turns out to be a problem.

The real issue is that governments everywhere depend on inflation to pay their long term debts, so inflation is probably best viewed as a kind of hidden tax...

[IDEngineer]

The real issue is that governments everywhere depend on inflation to pay their long term debts, so inflation is probably best viewed as a kind of hidden tax...

Indeed. And when was the last time you saw a sovereign nation intentionally deflate their currency? Yeah, me neither.

As you point out, it serves their interests to devalue the currency over time. Bad policy decisions done in a panic are seldom undone later. Look up "Patriot Act" for a prime example.

[T3sl4co1l]

Of course, their interests are highly financial -- they make money by supporting the global financial trade.  They destroy themselves if they hyperinflate.  Their friends complain if they deflate.  They have to walk a finer line.  It's only the local despots that can get away with hyperinflation -- Zimbabwe for a recent example.

Tim

[jrs45]

Success story: I randomly searched octopart for a random (TI!) part I'll need for a new design going into production.  One distributor had 25 in stock at an inflated price.  I figured, eh, I could use a few for prototyping, might as well get them.

I click through and they actually have 3000 in stock, and at a fair price!  I snatched 1000 of them.  Glory be!  For once the update lag works to my benefit.  (Octo is still showing the wrong #)

[IDEngineer]

Those aggregation sites have a definite lag time. Some claim to indicate when the info was last refreshed but my experience has been that the data is seldom accurate. Mostly I use them to find sites which claim to have carried the part in question at some time, and then do my own homework on the native site in question.

Even that hasn't been foolproof, though. Last week, while talking with a connector manufacturer (the actual manufacturer, whom you'd think would actually know what they are building and shipping), they mentioned they had 1800 pieces shipping to a certain distributor whose site showed zero availability. That normally means the upcoming shipment has already been allocated to other customers and none are available for new purchase. I confirmed that with the distributor themselves and moved on. Then, a couple of days ago, one of our CM's notified me that the site was reporting 575 pieces available in stock for immediate shipment and "What should we do?" I told them to buy them immediately, just in case, and they've already arrived here!

There are so many variables in play now. What is the manufacturer actually shipping? How many are already committed to customers? Have, or will, any of those customers cancel orders - and when? It's basically a full time job monitoring all the distributors and brokers to see when critical parts pop up out of nowhere.

Glad you found your parts!

[tszaboo]

The difference this time is, it's not just limited to the electronics industry. It's across all industries, from raw materials to the delivery of finished products.

Yes. Other parts are becoming problematic. For example we have trouble buying the usual glass filled nylon.
It could be that they have an issue buying one of the additive, or the colorant, and the company who makes those have trouble buying the vat for it.
Because the controller board for the vat has trouble getting the ICs to make it work. And we come full circle.

The only way out of it would be preferential allocation for industrial clients. Apple has no supply issue, because they have more layers than engineers. In the meantime, small, niche manufacturers (like where I work) has trouble getting parts, because we don't sue if they are not delivered. So it is cheaper to not deliver to us. The issue is, at the end of the day, we make the infrastructure for the companies to be able to extend their manufacturing or transportation needs.
So if you ship to machine builders, they build machines, and you slowly build up larger capacity to cover the need. If you dont, instead you use the capacity to build gadgets, then people thow out the old gadgets, and meanwhiel the manufacturing capacity slowly decreases.

Shorter cycle: Imagine ASML not getting ICs to build the factories to build more ICs.
So solution: Everyone allocate production to industrial clients. No exceptions. Make it a law.