How is Chipageddon affecting you?

[NiHaoMike]

What I would really like to see is an altcoin that's "mined" by hosting a P2P wireless mesh network. Initially, it can use networks like I2P and Tor to extend its reach but the long term plan is to have it mostly dependent on Wifi or whatever sorts of wireless links they could come up with. At the least, it could be something to help keep ISPs honest.

Cheaper SSDs can be killed within a month as the plot files are large for Chia.  In the end, you are looking at many SSDs and even though generally power draw is "less", you're burning through SSDs at a high rate.  There'll be an increased demand of SSDs due to burning through them quickly; not entirely sure this is going to be very ecofriendly long term.

If my understanding of how it works is correct, perhaps a solution to that would be to use RAM to generate the plot files? Probably best done in the cloud since I read that it's on the order of a TB.

[Alti]

Repeat after me:
"This is some else's problem."(..)
"What do you want me to do? Give birth to a reel of ICs?"

This is good advice. Do your best. Communicate clearly about the situation. There's nothing else you can do and if someone can't deal with that, you deserve something better.

What? I cannot believe what I read, Siwastaja converted!

I was convinced your response would put a responsibility for the chipageddon and resulting delays on electronics designer.

Praise the Lord.

[IDEngineer]

The only reason it's "worth" anything is because it is in limited supply and relies on some finite resource to mine it

That's the definition of value. Taken to the bottom, value is driven by (demand / prevalence). Low demand and/or high prevalence lowers value. High demand and/or low prevalence raises value. Examples include air... nobody even thinks about "paying" for air on the surface of the earth yet it's literally the most valuable substance within a spacecraft or submarine. Another would be water, which has a ridiculously low cost per bulk gallon in most developed cities yet is priceless to someone stranded in a desert. Meanwhile the value of sand in that desert is virtually zero because it's readily available and there are few immediate uses for it.

Prevalence has a locality aspect to it. I often explain to children that much of historical commerce was based on two main characteristics: Scarcity and location. Strictly speaking the latter is related to the former but it helps grasp the concept. Something commonplace (and therefore of low value) in one location can become extremely valuable when shipped to another location where it is naturally scarce. The spice trade was the personification of this.

Crypto's availability is intentionally limited, just like the fiat currencies of governments (otherwise why employ legions of law enforcement focused on counterfeiting?). That alone does not cause it to have value. But once demand picks up, for whatever reason, the above (demand / prevalence) relationship kicks in. There are no mysteries here, it's basic economics of which a large component is human nature.

It's telling that crypto was intentionally designed to do exactly what is happening right now. We've had millenia to study and understand economics and human nature and this is just a more technology-heavy implementation of those same old spice trade rules. In the past the "technology" generally involved better harvesting, mining, printing, storage/preservation, etc. This latest iteration has moved past the physical and into the purely abstract, but that's just a technology step. The fundamentals really haven't changed, you're still dealing with (demand / prevalence).

[madires]

Could you please start a new thread to discuss crypto currencies?

[nctnico]

Prevalence has a locality aspect to it. I often explain to children that much of historical commerce was based on two main characteristics: Scarcity and location.

Scarcity should not apply to currency! That is the error in your thinking. Currency which is scarce is useless and hence the gold standards where let go allowing governments to print as much money as the economy needs (=keep inflation rates at around 2%).

[IDEngineer]

Scarcity should not apply to currency! That is the error in your thinking.

If you believe that, go flood the economy with counterfeit currency and see if the government cares. After all, you're just making the currency "less scarce", right?

[floobydust]

Don't burn out. Engineers are highly stressed having to design in alternate parts. This chip shortage will be a problem for a few more years.

I'm not doing anything about it - it's extra workload with no breaks in the schedule for the extra time spent finding substitutes. Constant interruptions about "what can we do?".
Management is too cheap to keep anything in stock.
Supply Chain failed to notice the shortage or do anything about it. They can't even procure parts, by time the P.O. is signed and approved, the parts are gone. Another inept department that does nothing but burden engineering.
Doing a design change, new PCB layout, tests, regulatory approvals is basically the entire product development cycle.
After all that, "uh there's another IC we can't get" 

Intel’s CEO Pat Gelsinger reiterated the chip shortage could take a couple of years to resolve.
"While the industry has taken steps to address near-term constraints it could still take a couple of years for the ecosystem to address shortages of foundry capacity, substrates and components..."

"Mark Liu, chairman of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., told CBS his company, having heard about shortages at the end of last year, tried to “squeeze” out as many chips as possible for car companies.
“Today, we think we are two months ahead, that we can catch up (to) the minimum requirement of our customers -- by the end of June,” he said.   
The supply shortage may only be alleviated by the end of the year or early 2022, CBS said.
“There’s a time lag,” Liu said. “In car chips particularly, the supply chain is long and complex.”
Liu also sought to ease concerns that U.S. companies are relying on Asian suppliers, which account for 75% of manufacturing, according to CBS.
“This is not about Asia or not Asia, because a shortage will happen no matter where the production is located,” he said. “Because it’s due to the Covid.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-02/intel-s-new-ceo-won-t-be-anywhere-near-as-focused-on-buybacks

He doesn't make sense because it's supposedly a shortage of production, which takes years to ramp up.

[cortex_m0]

So far my company's production is mostly unaffected, because we did buy many components ahead, starting in summer 2020.

To OP's point about Texas Instruments "losing trust": TI is one of the world's largest semiconductor vendors. If there's a shortage of electronic components, of course it will affect them. TI also has a broad network of its own fabs, which should help mitigate their problems.

My biggest concern is with Microchip products right now. Just about everything they sell has a listed lead time of "53 weeks", which to me is code for "WE HAVE NO IDEA; DO NOT USE THIS PART". Unfortunately, some of those parts are already in my designs, and once our stock is depleted, I'm not sure what I'll do.

[nctnico]

Scarcity should not apply to currency! That is the error in your thinking.

If you believe that, go flood the economy with counterfeit currency and see if the government cares. After all, you're just making the currency "less scarce", right?

That remark makes no sense. You snipped the most relevant part: keeping the inflation at the 2% mark. Please educate yourself on how governments, central banks, IMF, etc are carefully regulating the amount of available currency. Then you'll also understand that crypto currencies which need to be mined (IOW: are scarce by design) have no future. It is like trying to get people to use a horse & carriage again.

[tszaboo]

He doesn't make sense because it's supposedly a shortage of production, which takes years to ramp up.

Its not a shortage of production, its an excess of consumption. People couldn't travel to Italy to pay 6 EUR for a cappuchino on the shore, so they are buying the new gadget with their extra money.
Open up the borders and start turism again, all this comes back to normal.

[nctnico]

He doesn't make sense because it's supposedly a shortage of production, which takes years to ramp up.

Its not a shortage of production, its an excess of consumption. People couldn't travel to Italy to pay 6 EUR for a cappuchino on the shore, so they are buying the new gadget with their extra money.
Open up the borders and start turism again, all this comes back to normal.

Out of curiosity: Do you have any references for this?
During the credit crunch several semiconductor manufacturers closed down factories anticipating a much lower demand. That turned out the be a mistake... TI was one of the most noticable culprits. I hope/doubt the semiconductor manufacturers made the same mistake because it took about a year before things started to get back to normal.

The current shortage looks like the perfect storm to me: re-ordering cancelled orders, increased demand due to people buying gadgets, lower manufacturing output due to Covid related workplace restrictions and hoarding (panic buying). The latter 3 won't last forever.

[IDEngineer]

That remark makes no sense. You snipped the most relevant part: keeping the inflation at the 2% mark.

The central banks accomplish that by manipulating the money (currency) supply. Which is to say, regulating its scarcity. My remark is perfectly on point.

Please educate yourself on how governments, central banks, IMF, etc are carefully regulating the amount of available currency. Then you'll also understand that crypto currencies which need to be mined have no future.

Let's keep this discussion civil, shall we?

First, "carefully regulating the amount of available currency" literally implies scarcity.

Second, with all due respect, I'm married to a Finance/Economics major who graduated Magna cum Laude and my now-deceased father-in-law spent his entire 40+ year career in banking, retiring as a senior executive in one of the largest banks in both the western and eastern hemispheres. And that's just two of my close family members. My son and I are the only tech heads in an otherwise economics-centric family. Our dinner conversations with both immediate and extended family generally revolve around economics policy. Holidays feel like Federal Reserve meetings. I'm literally surrounded by people for whom these exact topics are their daily bread and butter. I promise I know what I'm talking about, even if I'm not one of the people in the family with economics degrees.

The examples I'm using are intentionally simple. That said, scarcity does matter. I know you think your "gold-backed" comments refute that, but you don't realize your talking in circles. Getting off a backed currency, and moving to a fiat currency, is what allows central banks to freely manipulate the currency supply to pursue policy goals like a targeted level of inflation. But to do that implies that they CAN control the scarcity of the currency supply, which is exactly why scarcity matters. It's why counterfeit currency is illegal, because it dilutes the control of scarcity that empowers the central bank to manipulate the currency supply.

As for "crypto currencies which need to be mined have no future", the problem for central banks is that cryptos can be generated by entities other than that central bank - which (again) drives straight to the heart of the power that the central bank depends upon: Control of scarcity. To a central bank this isn't far from counterfeiting in the sense that it undermines their own authority. If "just anyone" can affect the currency supply (read: scarcity), it becomes harder for the central bank to pursue its policy agenda because it isn't the only one with leverage in the currency market.

When you're talking about a currency, scarcity is everything. Commonplace items cannot convey wealth because too little effort is required to get/create more. Something with at least a bit of rarity is required. And a byproduct of that fact is that if the degree of scarcity can be manipulated, those who are able to do the manipulating can control things like the inflation rate. Remember that inflation means "each unit of currency buys fewer goods and services; consequently, inflation reflects a reduction in the purchasing power per unit of money – a loss of real value in the medium of exchange and unit of account within the economy" (Wikipedia). The only way there can be a change in the purchasing power per unit of money is if the ratio of currency in circulation changes with respect to the size of the economy, which means the money supply must be a known (not "unlimited", "free", "infinite") quantity.

[NiHaoMike]

lower manufacturing output due to Covid related workplace restrictions

I would expect semiconductor manufacturing to be affected little by that because the cleanroom suits are specifically designed to prevent contamination of the room by even the smallest particles and the fab building has sophisticated air filtering to quickly remove particles that somehow make their way into the room.

[magic]

Methinks if BTC is the only currency in the world and economies grow 2% per yer (hypothetically), the purchasing power of one BTC would just increase 2% per year as BTC has no alternative uses besides trade, so it isn't tied to any inherent value like gold or silver. So we pretend that each BTC of last year became 1.02 BTC today (heck, this could probably even be implemented formally in the protocol), problem solved

Or your problem is something else

[james_s]

Seems to me it would be pretty easy for governments to bad cryptocurrency. While it's true that it's technically impossible to control it, by banning it suddenly it has no legitimate uses and no legitimate business will take it. The only value at that point is to criminals for illegal activities. It's near useless for anything else, it has always been way too volatile to be useful as a currency.

[magic]

Criminal activities include but aren't limited to ordering leaded solder and basic organic reagents or mineral acids, working below whatever the government considers minimum wage this day, bypassing over 100% taxation on vodka and so on. An American might be surprised how widespread criminal activity is in "big government" states

[nctnico]

lower manufacturing output due to Covid related workplace restrictions

I would expect semiconductor manufacturing to be affected little by that because the cleanroom suits are specifically designed to prevent contamination of the room by even the smallest particles and the fab building has sophisticated air filtering to quickly remove particles that somehow make their way into the room.

Well, people still need to share a dressing room, toilets, lunch room, etc. Depending on how the fab is layed out, it might not be possible to have all the staff in at the same time. But this information is likely hard to find.

[tom66]

I would expect semiconductor manufacturing to be affected little by that because the cleanroom suits are specifically designed to prevent contamination of the room by even the smallest particles and the fab building has sophisticated air filtering to quickly remove particles that somehow make their way into the room.

It's not just manufacturing though.  If you're limited on capacity in things like the offices and all staff need to remote work, productivity will be subtly affected.
I'm not opposed to WFH - I love it - but I think 100% remote is going to work out a bit less productive when your work is based on discussions, meetings in offices, problem solving, etc.

[tszaboo]

He doesn't make sense because it's supposedly a shortage of production, which takes years to ramp up.

Its not a shortage of production, its an excess of consumption. People couldn't travel to Italy to pay 6 EUR for a cappuchino on the shore, so they are buying the new gadget with their extra money.
Open up the borders and start turism again, all this comes back to normal.

Out of curiosity: Do you have any references for this?
During the credit crunch several semiconductor manufacturers closed down factories anticipating a much lower demand. That turned out the be a mistake... TI was one of the most noticable culprits. I hope/doubt the semiconductor manufacturers made the same mistake because it took about a year before things started to get back to normal.

The current shortage looks like the perfect storm to me: re-ordering cancelled orders, increased demand due to people buying gadgets, lower manufacturing output due to Covid related workplace restrictions and hoarding (panic buying). The latter 3 won't last forever.

https://www.gartner.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2021-04-12-gartner-says-worldwide-pc-shipments-grew-32-percent-in-first-quarter-of-2021#:~:text=Worldwide%20PC%20shipments%20totaled%2069.9,preliminary%20results%20by%20Gartner%2C%20Inc.
Thats one ugly URL. PC sales up 32% in 2021, other 20% or so in 2020. This is just one market, but you se the same thing happening wiht more markets
https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS47646721
New consoles came out in 2020.

[nctnico]

He doesn't make sense because it's supposedly a shortage of production, which takes years to ramp up.

Its not a shortage of production, its an excess of consumption. People couldn't travel to Italy to pay 6 EUR for a cappuchino on the shore, so they are buying the new gadget with their extra money.
Open up the borders and start turism again, all this comes back to normal.

Out of curiosity: Do you have any references for this?
During the credit crunch several semiconductor manufacturers closed down factories anticipating a much lower demand. That turned out the be a mistake... TI was one of the most noticable culprits. I hope/doubt the semiconductor manufacturers made the same mistake because it took about a year before things started to get back to normal.

The current shortage looks like the perfect storm to me: re-ordering cancelled orders, increased demand due to people buying gadgets, lower manufacturing output due to Covid related workplace restrictions and hoarding (panic buying). The latter 3 won't last forever.

https://www.gartner.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2021-04-12-gartner-says-worldwide-pc-shipments-grew-32-percent-in-first-quarter-of-2021#:~:text=Worldwide%20PC%20shipments%20totaled%2069.9,preliminary%20results%20by%20Gartner%2C%20Inc.
Thats one ugly URL. PC sales up 32% in 2021, other 20% or so in 2020. This is just one market, but you se the same thing happening wiht more markets
https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS47646721
New consoles came out in 2020.

Thanks! Makes perfect sense now. I already forgot how hard it was to buy a 'cheap' webcam when the lockdowns & working from home started. It is odd though that the buying frenzy continues; all people should have a computer by now OR companies are still moving towards more permanent home-offices and keep buying equipment to outfit their employees.

[madires]

Intel reiterates chip supply shortages could last several years: https://www.reuters.com/technology/intel-reiterates-chip-supply-shortages-could-last-several-years-2021-05-31/

[JPortici]

He doesn't make sense because it's supposedly a shortage of production, which takes years to ramp up.

Its not a shortage of production, its an excess of consumption. People couldn't travel to Italy to pay 6 EUR for a cappuchino on the shore, so they are buying the new gadget with their extra money.
Open up the borders and start turism again, all this comes back to normal.

Out of curiosity: Do you have any references for this?
During the credit crunch several semiconductor manufacturers closed down factories anticipating a much lower demand. That turned out the be a mistake... TI was one of the most noticable culprits. I hope/doubt the semiconductor manufacturers made the same mistake because it took about a year before things started to get back to normal.

The current shortage looks like the perfect storm to me: re-ordering cancelled orders, increased demand due to people buying gadgets, lower manufacturing output due to Covid related workplace restrictions and hoarding (panic buying). The latter 3 won't last forever.

https://www.gartner.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2021-04-12-gartner-says-worldwide-pc-shipments-grew-32-percent-in-first-quarter-of-2021#:~:text=Worldwide%20PC%20shipments%20totaled%2069.9,preliminary%20results%20by%20Gartner%2C%20Inc.
Thats one ugly URL. PC sales up 32% in 2021, other 20% or so in 2020. This is just one market, but you se the same thing happening wiht more markets
https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS47646721
New consoles came out in 2020.

consider how many families in 2020 had at least one smartphone or tablet per member but no computer, and realized that needed one/two per family to work from home, plus other consumer stuff like webcams, headphones and such

[madires]

Yep, before COVID-19 PC sales dropped steadily from year to year. With the virus there was a sudden demand for PCs plus peripherals to get home offices up and running. Add the crypto frenzy (gfx cards and now HDDs) and the stockpiling of components caused by sanctions against some Chinese companies, and we have a scarcity of components. It's only logical.

[IDEngineer]

Seems to me it would be pretty easy for governments to ban cryptocurrency.

Bans can't work in free societies. Review the 18th Amendment in the USA for a perfect example. Prohibition (the ban of liquor) was backed by a Constitutional Amendment, the strongest expression of law in the United States system of government. Yet all it did was drive the liquor industry underground, create a huge black market, empower and enlarge criminal enterprise, and drive up street violence. It got so bad that another Constitutional Amendment, the 21st, was required to undo the damage.

Similarly, the USA has had an outright ban on most recreational drugs for decades. How's that working out? Drugs seem readily available to those who seek them, and just like Prohibition this "ban" has created a huge international black market and empowered drug cartels and gangs resulting in endless violence and innocent casualities. I note that recently there's been some movement to acknowledge this and ease up on "lightweight" drugs such as marijuana. It's the 18th vs. 21st Amendment all over again.

I'm reminded of this cycle every single time someone wants to "ban" guns in the USA. Abortions bans are another one. Such people are utterly ignorant of history.

When considering the passage of a law, it's important to consider what enforcement would be required to make it work. Bans require enforcement that is not compatible with a free society. This is how otherwise fundamental liberties are swept away under the guise of "security" and "safety". There are a lot of people in USA prisons this very minute due to convenient interpretations of things like anti-drug laws (bans). Is that something people want to perpetuate, and indeed expand, with more "ban in name only" efforts against the boogieman d'jour?

Are periodic government inspections of your computing devices in the name of crypto enforcement really worth it? What sort of enforcement would be required for a gun ban? Or how about - wait for it - an abortion ban?

Freedom or bans: Choose one. But be darned careful of the secondary effects of your choice.

[IDEngineer]

Yep, before COVID-19 PC sales dropped steadily from year to year. With the virus there was a sudden demand for PCs plus peripherals to get home offices up and running. Add the crypto frenzy (gfx cards and now HDDs) and the stockpiling of components caused by sanctions against some Chinese companies, and we have a scarcity of components. It's only logical.

There's another aspect which was at least as large. I'm living this right now so I speak from personal experience (which I've mentioned elsewhere on this site).

Yes, demand for PC's and other "larger" computing hardware definitely increased thanks to the remote work/school aspect of COVID-19. But with the vendors we use, we've been told that they simply consumed the excess capacity that was freed up by the (now known to be mistaken) predictions of other industries that their own demands would plummet. Cars, boats, small computing devices, etc. all scaled back their projections and thus cancelled many PO's with upstream vendors. That meant those vendors now had "excess capacity" and they went looking for customers to consume it. It was a happy coincidence for the traditional PC makers (among others) that their own demand suddenly skyrocketed, so the vendors and the PC folks (and others) made their deals and everything found its balance again.

...until demand DIDN'T drop for lots of those other things. Car makers, we're told, went running back to their vendors pleading to reinstate their cancelled PO's but the vendors essentially said "We trusted you when you wanted to cancel those PO's and we made other arrangements. We now have contractural obligations with those customers. Your mistake does not mean we can simply ignore those new contracts."

And here we are. Yes, there's been some stockpiling (we've done that ourselves). Yes, graphics cards have a whole new demand source (crypto) though to be fair, that was already happening before COVID-19. But the systemwide availability problem is not solely due to these factors. I suspect (but have not done the research) that the combined impacts of erroneous market projections, and the subsequent reallocation of production to alternative customers, is the larger driver of this situation. I don't know how long some of those new contracts last but they're likely the primary timing mechanism for things getting "back to normal". The supply chain is now contractually obligated to stay in this "new normal" for a while.