Germanwings flight 4u9525 CVR.

[a210210200]

A side comment... the video obvious shows a sophisticated but flawed door lockout system.

The designers incorrectly assumed the flight deck would never possibly be under malicious control and trusted that side of the door entirely. The flaw is that to prevent duress situations where the cabin crew are forced to give up their remembered access codes (Which likely don't change very often and are probably re-used a lot, which is horribly for security, not to mention tons of people probably know the code by heart and it probably sits in a printed manual somewhere for ultra facepalm) they made it so the lockdown cannot be overridden.

Making a secure door override that relies on the entire cabin crew to cooperate makes much more sense and eliminates having to remember anything or have something to give up by using a electronic card which gets cryptographic secrets when they sign into the flight. The combined keys would be needed to override the lockdown and if a terrorist tries to get all the keys the crew members individually can erase their keys and passengers would also be able to resist as the crew would be spatially spread out so that there would be enough time to covertly erase their keys in a terrorist situation.

[G0HZU]

Pilots are taught very early in training to trust their instruments more than their subjective feelings.  There is a gauge in the cockpit that displays the effective cabin altitude.  If a pilot were feeling a bit ill and suspecting hypoxia, but not seeing obvious signs of explosive decompression, the pilot would check the cabin altitude and don his oxygen mask before starting an emergency descent.

I still don't think I've explained my first post to you enough. I suggested that maybe the copilot had a funny turn (could be a stroke or seizure or a reaction to something) and then he passed out. During the phase where he was just feeling unwell and starting to feel dizzy or disorientated he may have incorrectly thought he was suffering decompression. You can't train 'semi conscious' people not to be delusional and you can't train sick/fainting people to be able to read instruments accurately and to make rational decisions during those few seconds before they pass out.

But it looks like a moot point anyway because there is mounting evidence to suggest he did plan and do it all deliberately 

[richard.cs]

I think I'll reserve judgment on that one for a while.
My guess: If the co-pilot caused it, then he'd had a stroke or brain aneurism. 

Yeah right and then each minute over and over again manually overrule the first pilot emergency access code by using a switch, each minute again and again , don't think so.

He'd only have to do that once, if he sets it to locked the first time (or prior to that) there's a 5-20 minute timer (selectable by the airline) before it can be retried. There are concievable situations in which he might become disorientated, etc and intentionally do something for reasons that only make sense in a dying/damaged brain. That's not just medical things like strokes but also environmental factors - there are unlikely but possible means to get carbon monoxide in the air for example though most of those would affect the cabin too. There are also reasons an entirely rational non-suicidal person might crash a plane, perhaps I'm in danger of straying into consipracy theory teritory here but consider if some external agent threatened his familiy or similar in an attempt to assasinate one particular passenger.

I'm not saying it wasn't suicide, but it's a little odd in quite a few ways. I have a suspicion that it will be recorded as "deliberate pilot action" anyway because there just isn't enough evidence to prove if he had a stroke, etc. That or hard evidence will be found that it was pre-planned.

At the moment we have no evidence he didn't change the altitude to hide from the invisible flying monkeys he thought were banging on the door. If he was delusional for any reason then it doesn't have to make sense or be anything as "rational" as suicide.

[Wytnucls]

Mmmm...12 cabin crew on a flight, some sleeping in pajamas in the crew rest compartment during most of the flight. Cards that don't work, wrong scan sequence, lost cards, crowding in front of the safety door. How long is this going to take?
Major modifications to cockpit door interface. This isn't going to happen just to cater for some far-fetched scenario.
Take your scheme to pprune and see what the professional pilots think of it. Yes, there are a few left on the site.

[Galenbo]

When I hear those big-media stories, and 'official' investigation results, I sometimes ask myself:

What if it is all a lie?

Without wanting to take the conspiracy-route, everything I hear about it comes from the media that other days mostly tell lies, gives wrong or misinterpreted data, or lazyly publishes media-reports from companies without even editing.

Who checks the facts? Are there multiple organisations checking on eatchother? Or is the investigation in the hands of just one de-facto big organisation that gives info top-down? Is all data classified?

[cimmo]

One possibility i seen discussed a lot is that the pilot felt the approach of sickness, mis-identified it as decompression in progress and tried to set the plane to go back into the thick air, then passed out.

Interesting speculation. But it does require some explanation as to how the emergency access code failed to open the door.

Since the emergency access code (that will automatically release the door locks unless overridden) is apparently only known to tech crew and the senior cabin attendant (3 people), perhaps the captain and the senior FA simply forgot the code?

Alternatively, perhaps that part of the Cockpit Door Locking System simply failed?

[rr100]

Since the emergency access code (that will automatically release the door locks unless overridden) is apparently only known to tech crew and the senior cabin attendant (3 people), perhaps the captain and the senior FA simply forgot the code?

Alternatively, perhaps that part of the Cockpit Door Locking System simply failed?

Those are really good points. The youtube video demonstrating the system shows that the emergency code is used only for (doh) emergencies so it is easy to forget (even worse if they just changed it, I assume they do change it now and then).

Also it would be interesting to know how/often the emergency unlock is checked, on which checklist it is, etc.

[Wytnucls]

When I hear those big-media stories, and 'official' investigation results, I sometimes ask myself:

What if it is all a lie?

Without wanting to take the conspiracy-route, everything I hear about it comes from the media that other days mostly tell lies, gives wrong or misinterpreted data, or lazyly publishes media-reports from companies without even editing.

Who checks the facts? Are there multiple organisations checking on eatchother? Or is the investigation in the hands of just one de-facto big organisation that gives info top-down? Is all data classified?

French and German government aviation investigators release information as they see fit, in preliminary reports.
The formal final report and recommendations will take months to complete before publication.
As officials suspect foul play, respective police forces are involved too and may conduct press briefings on a regular basis.

[Artlav]

Who checks the facts?

Not the media.

Compare the language in the reports from investigators:

the States Attorney of Marseille (France) reported, the first officer was alone in the cockpit. The first officer was not talking, only normal breathing could be heard after the captain departed the cockpit. The captain was not able to get back into the cockpit. The first officer initiated a rapid descent, there was no reason to initiate the rapid descent, there was no reason to not communicate with air traffic control, there was no reason why the door wouldn't open. With the current information it can be said, that the breathing of the first officer is not consistent with someone suffering a heart attack or other health issue. Other than that there is absolute silence in the cockpit, screams are heard only in the last few moments. There were no words heard during the last 10 minutes of the flight. The states attorney thinks the first officer intentionally did not open the door.

"We have the CVR, it's content is such and such, specialists derive this and that from it."
Hard facts and working theories.

Compare with the language in the media:

(Daily Mail) It also emerged on Friday that the pilot who was locked outside the cabin had used an axe to try to smash down the cockpit door.

This could not be immediately confirmed, but a spokesman for Germanwings confirmed to AFP that an axe was on board the aircraft.

"So, there was an axe on board, therefore the axe was used to try to open the door. It sounds nice, let's print it.
No, i don't care that the axe is stored INSIDE the cockpit, on the other side of the door in question. It sounds nice, let's print it."

That's all the media circus in one quote.

But it does require some explanation as to how the emergency access code failed to open the door.

Maybe locking the door is standard procedure? First pilot walks out, the one that is left locks the door, then whatever happened happens, the first comes back and knocks on the door to be let back in, having no idea that something is wrong. By the time people outside realise something is up, it's already too late.

I don't know if the timing of events fits this scenario, they didn't release the detailed transcripts of the CVR yet.

[Wytnucls]

Since the emergency access code (that will automatically release the door locks unless overridden) is apparently only known to tech crew and the senior cabin attendant (3 people), perhaps the captain and the senior FA simply forgot the code?

Alternatively, perhaps that part of the Cockpit Door Locking System simply failed?

Those are really good points. The youtube video demonstrating the system shows that the emergency code is used only for (doh) emergencies so it is easy to forget (even worse if they just changed it, I assume they do change it now and then).

Also it would be interesting to know how/often the emergency unlock is checked, on which checklist it is, etc.

The whole crew knows the emergency code. In my experience, it doesn't change that often (yearly perhaps, depending on company SOPs). The door emergency release mechanism is checked before every flight and is unlikely to fail.
Lowest altitude set in the FCU window for depressurization is 10,000 feet, not 100ft, like he did.

[cimmo]

But it does require some explanation as to how the emergency access code failed to open the door.

Maybe locking the door is standard procedure? First pilot walks out, the one that is left locks the door, then whatever happened happens, the first comes back and knocks on the door to be let back in, having no idea that something is wrong. By the time people outside realise something is up, it's already too late.

No. The door automatically locks whenever it is closed, but the locks can be over-ridden if the emergency access code is used. However, if that is attempted, then during the 30 sec wait period before the door can be opened, the cockpit switch can be put in lock (it is a momentary toggle) and this will prevent the locks from releasing and disable any further attempts at using the emergency code for several minutes.

IF the flying pilot was incapacitated and did NOT manually select the LOCK switch at the appropriate time (during the 30 sec wait period), then this needs an explanation as to why the door couldn't be opened.

As to how often this system is checked, apart from observation of the inbuilt FAULT light that would be part of a pre-flight cockpit checklist, I do not think this system is actually functionally checked on a routine basis at all. If it failed in such a fashion that it's built in test capability did not recognize, then it could have failed days or weeks before this flight. Remember, this was a very old aircraft (for an A320).

[cimmo]

The door emergency release mechanism is checked before every flight and is unlikely to fail.

An actual functional test? Or just an observation of an absence of the FAULT light?

Unlikely does not mean impossible.

[Wytnucls]

Functional test with the proper code. As likely to fail as your car brakes at the next red light; not impossible.

[cimmo]

Functional test with the proper code. As likely to fail as your car brakes at the next red light; not impossible.

Even if it was functionally tested before flight, perhaps it spontaneously failed when it was used in anger?

Aviation safety is such that a single failure rarely has consequences any more, BUT there have been plenty of accidents that required multiple failures to happen, and unfortunately, they did (sometimes as many as three or more).
In this case, failure one - pilot incapacity, failure two - door lock system.

[G7PSK]

It has just been reported that he tore up a doctors sick note for the morning of the crash. The autopilot and flight computers should be made in such a way that they will not obey commands that jeopardise the plane, such as being set to fly at 100 feet or Meters the plane should not be able to descend to low altitude until they receive a radio command from the airports ILS.

[Wytnucls]

Failure 3: Setting 100ft on the FCU, which requires an extra switch movement, never done at 38,000 feet.
Too far-fetched. Occam's razor.
Investigators have access to the CVR and would have heard all the noises from switches and chimes from the security door. They are following the suicide lead and I believe them.

[SeanB]

Copilot pops an artery in his brain, and in this confused state he selects a low altitude, for some reason that the dying region thought was rational. Warning buzzer sounds, and his brain has enough remaining capacity to recognise, and as a response to press cancel for the alarm. Not enough left to fully respond, and as it is high brain failure breathing is unaffected by this, midbrain is still fine and controlling the body. Autopilot is doing the job and doing a descent to 100ft, and it is a very well known thing that the autopilot is not capable of doing terrain following, as the typical usage is in free airspace in a defined flight lane, it will use collision avoidance as an emergency for planes equipped with the system to avoid other aircraft. Approaching set altitude and rising terrain, it does a "controlled descent into terrain", though at flight speed very little survives.

Having the autopilot not allow descent unless at an airport is suicide, as often airport ILS beacons are off for a fault, or they are not present at smaller airports the plane is capable of landing at. Adding the requirement will make the autopilot very brittle design wise, as then any failure of the nav system, or any nav error ( GPS loses lock in heavy storms, and lightning can overwhelm the receiver so it loses lock until it does a full reacquire) means the plane cannot land, and then will fly till it runs out of fuel and then crashes. Do you want to be in the area of the airport approach when a plane in the holding pattern can run out of fuel in addition to a nav fault, and fly into the ground with the cockpit having the following repeating warnings " Fuel, Pull Up, Terrain, Attitude" with the pilots last words being a curse on you and all your descendants.

Identifying the remains is typically done with use of dental records ( teeth and jaw survives the crash quite well, and often even survives the fire somewhat intact) or by personal effects ( sim/sd card/IMIE label of the phone that was in pocket, or the remains of the clothing or wallet and passport) and as a last resort using DNA.

[Wytnucls]

Auto-pilot doesn't avoid other aircraft yet, but it is coming soon. 

[Neganur]

Copilot pops an artery in his brain

seriously.....and people complain over audiofoolery

[Kjelt]

It has just been reported that he tore up a doctors sick note for the morning of the crash.

It is now also reported that due to this note that he tore up he was not fit and not allowed to fly that day.
His flight brevet had an attachment that he needed regular medical checkups.
 
Speculation from my part: his doctor told him he was not fit to fly and probably told him he would never ever be able to fly anymore.

[SeanB]

Auto-pilot doesn't avoid other aircraft yet, but it is coming soon. 

I vote the first aircraft to implement that must be named "Gay Deceiver".

http://www.gaydeceiver.com/what.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Number_of_the_Beast_%28novel%29

[ConKbot]

Having the autopilot not be able to descent unless xyz parameters are met sounds ok at first, but then there's the whole problem of the person thats holding a control stick can just push it forwards...  If you cant trust the flight crew, you're hosed.  If a person with bad intentions has unrestricted physical access to the cockpit, youre hosed. Just like there is no "unhackable" security if someone has physical access.

If you want the cockpit to be able to be secured totally from the inside, unable for bad guys in the back to gain access under any circumstance, then youre going to have to be able to trust the pilots.  Otherwise youre going to get lost in a case of what-if scenarios. 

[SeanB]

Having the autopilot not be able to descent unless xyz parameters are met sounds ok at first, but then there's the whole problem of the person thats holding a control stick can just push it forwards...  If you cant trust the flight crew, you're hosed.  If a person with bad intentions has unrestricted physical access to the cockpit, youre hosed. Just like there is no "unhackable" security if someone has physical access.

If you want the cockpit to be able to be secured totally from the inside, unable for bad guys in the back to gain access under any circumstance, then youre going to have to be able to trust the pilots.  Otherwise youre going to get lost in a case of what-if scenarios.

Modern aircraft are fly by wire, the pilot is more in the regime of giving suggestions to the flight computer. That is at least until the flight computers decide they no longer can cope, and toss full control back with only minimal sanitising of the control surface inputs, which was the cause of the Air France crash.

[G7PSK]

There is a report out in Germany that the co pilot was a recent convert to muslim and that he had a muslim girlfriend.http://www.tpnn.com/2015/03/27/breaking-germanwings-co-pilot-was-muslim-convert/  Most likely rubbish but you never know these days.

[Neganur]

Maybe he was a Nazi. Or worse, from Mars. You never know!

Seriously, I think it's time to stop looking for bullshit.