EV-based road transportation is not viable

[Marco]

I would not pay much attention to legislation that bans something in the distant future. Laws that have no immediate effect are pure political stunts of irresponsible politicians who will not be around when the ban is supposed to take effect.

Laws with no sunset date aren't always easy to turn back. Proper politicians/kleptocrats shy away from just reversing old laws, populists don't give a shit but populists don't get into power that often in the west ... it happens, but not all that often.

[Marco]

I don't think you need to be an industry commentator to predict another delay. The UK has already pushed it back 10 years from the original deadline if I'm remembering correctly.

They might still do that, but at the moment you're remembering it the wrong way round.

[vad]

Whose agenda continues to push climate denial in the face of insurmountable evidence?

Climate change is a radical leftist ideology that impedes progress.

One thing that I learned, is that climate on the planet Earth has been always changing. There were periods when the Earth was a hot humid tropical paradise in which all forms of life thrived, and especially vegetation. Likely there also was a period called Snowball Earth when the entire planet was covered with ice.

What I also know is that life is very resilient, and it survived climate changes for hundreds millions of years.

Intelligent life is even more resilient to climate change. For example, I live in a climate zone with temperatures below freezing point during extended periods of a year where my and yours common prehistoric ancestors would not survive for a single night.

If there is an imminent threat to our civilization, it comes from humans themselves - wars, poverty, hunger, disease, and not from the climate change that we cannot control but can easily adapt to.

[tom66]

I don't think you need to be an industry commentator to predict another delay. The UK has already pushed it back 10 years from the original deadline if I'm remembering correctly.

No, it started off at 2035, was moved to 2032 and now is at 2030.  However, there is a carve out, from 2030 to 2035 plug in hybrids can be sold. After that it has to be true ZEV only, so currently battery EV and hydrogen.

I really expect EV technology to have massively moved on since then.  In 2010, the best EV under 40k Euros was the Leaf 24kWh.  Range 75 miles, charging rate 40kW.   In 2020, even ignoring inflation, 40k Euros gets you a 58kWh ID.3.  If you include inflation at about 2% per annum, then the ~50kEUR segment includes cars up to the Model 3 (~180kW charging, 55kWh battery, 200 mile range), and the ~30kEUR segment includes cars that beat the original Leaf (e.g. Peugeot e-208 with 50kWh battery and 100kW charging, ~170 mile range.)  Even in the sub-20k segment you have small city cars like e-Up which go further than 1st gen Leaf.

[tom66]

Climate change is a radical leftist ideology that impedes progress.

Sigh.  Not everything is politics.  Even right wing parties over here accept the reality of climate change.  There is nothing radical or leftist about it.

One thing that I learned, is that climate on the planet Earth has been always changing. There were periods when the Earth was a hot humid tropical paradise in which all forms of life thrived, and especially vegetation. Likely there also was a period called Snowball Earth when the entire planet was covered with ice. 

What I also know is that life is very resilient, and it survived climate changes for hundreds millions of years.

Not really relevant when typical changes happen over millenia.  Human caused climate change is likely to raise the planet's average temperature in under 100 years.  What chance is there for adaptation?

Intelligent life is even more resilient to climate change. For example, I live in a climate zone with temperatures below freezing point during extended periods of a year where my and yours common prehistoric ancestors would not survive for a single night.

I can't think of anyone mainstream suggesting humans will go extinct as a result of climate change, we will certainly adapt.  However, the result of that adaptation will be we have less food, will be poorer, and more likely to die as a result of floods, extreme weather, forest fires etc.  It doesn't sound like a pleasant adaptation to have to make. 

If there is an imminent threat to our civilization, it comes from humans themselves - wars, poverty, hunger, disease, and not from the climate change that we cannot control but can easily adapt to.

You carefully omit that climate change has the potential to cause all of these.

[nctnico]

I can't think of anyone mainstream suggesting humans will go extinct as a result of climate change, we will certainly adapt.  However, the result of that adaptation will be we have less food, will be poorer, and more likely to die as a result of floods, extreme weather, forest fires etc.  It doesn't sound like a pleasant adaptation to have to make. 

You are watching way too many movies!

[vad]

Sigh.  Not everything is politics.  Even right wing parties over here accept the reality of climate change.  There is nothing radical or leftist about it..

Here in the US the climate change agenda is being pushed by Dems. Also, radical laws were passed in Dem controlled states, such as California.

Banning ICE vehicle sales and closing power generation plants are very radical measures.

Not really relevant when typical changes happen over millenia.  Human caused climate change is likely to raise the planet's average temperature in under 100 years.  What chance is there for adaptation?

It did not happen overnight, like with the climate change from the asteroid that killed dinosaurs. 100 years is a very long period.

Animals and plants will migrate, since the change is happening over multiple generations.

Also, more CO2 in the atmosphere is better for vegetation. It will make the planet greener.

People would not notice. Most of the temperature raises happen in colder climate zones, were local population could welcome warmer climate.

However, the result of that adaptation will be we have less food, will be poorer, and more likely to die as a result of floods, extreme weather, forest fires etc.  It doesn't sound like a pleasant adaptation to have to make.

Other way around. People already have more food than they had 200 years ago, thanks to the Industrial Revolution that had excessive CO2 release as its side effects.

Were there floods, extreme weather and forest fires before people started burning coal at large scale?

You carefully omit that climate change has the potential to cause all of these.

No. Impeding economic growth and redirecting resources to initiatives that we cannot win will cause economic decline, poverty for more people, subsequent dominance of leftist ideology that killed 100 million people in last century.

We cannot win the “war” against the climate change. All reachable carbohydrates will sooner or later be excavated, burned, and cause release of CO2 into the atmosphere. Whatever millions of tons of carbon is there underground - they all will be released into the air, no matter if California bans ICE vehicle sales by 2035, or not. If Californians would not burn that carbon, somebody else in the world would burn it.

[jonovid]

in my opinion I see the possibility that cheap EV's will make it on to western markets.
but do not expect anything like a Tesla Model Y.
expect golf cart type acceleration performance above the city speed limit.
also expect the bare minimum in range - sub 100km  battery capacity.  think inkjet printers business model!
if you want more range? that is a battery upgrade not included. also the most basic overnight charging kit.
if the vehicle can accommodate more then one motor , the second motor is an upgrade.
do not expect carbon fiber and titanium body. expect a lot of steel and plastic with some aluminum.
do not expect a full size spare tyre. that's an upgrade! at the loss of some of your cargo space.
if you want sat nav, dash cam , surround sound its an upgrade not included. but the car wiring harness may will accommodate all upgrades intended for the EV.
car center console screen may play video vehicle tutorials, video games (when not driving) , phone dock, a working FM dab radio  and have a clock
that's all.

[nctnico]

in my opinion I see the possibility that cheap EV's will make it on to western markets.
but do not expect anything like a Tesla Model Y.
expect golf cart type acceleration performance above the city speed limit.

That will not be acceptable. It is like saying everyone has to go back to a Nokia 3610 mobile phone. Technological progress is driven by consumer demand. Cars have evolved the same way. Anything that is not a direct replacement and/or improvement will fail in a free market.

[jonovid]

in my opinion I see the possibility that cheap EV's will make it on to western markets.
but do not expect anything like a Tesla Model Y.
expect golf cart type acceleration performance above the city speed limit.

That will not be acceptable. It is like saying everyone has to go back to a Nokia 3610 mobile phone. Technological progress is driven by consumer demand. Cars have evolved the same way. Anything that is not a direct replacement and/or improvement will fail in a free market.

Nokia type 3610 mobile phone that cost less then half the price of other basic phones to operate, a half price phone plan if it was possible.  it would attract attention.
don't underestimate the desirability of retro technology.   the horse and cart is still a big hit with the amish, and that's the 1900's model.

[rstofer]

Were there floods, extreme weather and forest fires before people started burning coal at large scale?

As  I understand it, yes, and they were quite large and predate humans by a very long time.

https://daily.jstor.org/a-recipe-for-ancient-wildfires

[tautech]

What environmental changes ?
Based on what science ?
Does it take into account the largest atmospheric event in 140 years ?

Who's agenda is driving this and for who's benefit ?

Whose agenda continues to push climate denial in the face of insurmountable evidence?

(P.S. If you're talking about the Tonga event then yes - it makes it even more likely we'll miss the 1.5C target as it added about 1-2ppm of CO2 to the atmosphere.  However, humans have added about 125ppm to the atmosphere since pre-industrial times.)

Best you do some more research on the Tonga event as CO2 is the least of its additions into the atmosphere warming the planet.
Are you really not aware all this planet Earths weather has been impacted by it for the last 12 months ? 

The last big event like this we saw was Pinatubo but as it was a land based event with different ejecta its effect on the globes temps was the opposite.

Unless these natural events can be in incorporated into this already dodgy science its calculations become even less credible.

[TimFox]

One of many technical articles on the effects of the Tonga event:
https://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/research/science_snapshots/2022/Hunga_Tonga_stratosphere.php

[SiliconWizard]

Dang, all this vapor will act as a greenhouse gas and will increase temperatures, won't it?

[MadScientist]

Leaving aside the usual climate deniers , the conspiracy nutters and the “ alt right “ lunatics , I see nothing that suggests the title of the thread  is correct. Evidence is BEV sakes are doing well public charging in progressive countries is doing ok. Tax will increase on ice users until they get the message that burning dino juice isn’t acceptable. Bev will deliver solutions over the next 30 years.

It’s looking good for private car users who will have a good alternative in BEV vehicles

[james_s]

But I fully support a hard ban , leave it up to individuals and you’ll have people buying 2nd hand dino juice cars mfor years

Well I will not vote for anyone that supports a hard ban, period. And yes, people will be buying up used ICE cars for years and values will rise. You'll have to pry mine from my cold, dead hands. I say this as someone that generally likes EVs, I absolutely loathe governments that try to throw their weight around. Governments work for the people, not the other way around. A government should fear its citizens.

[james_s]

Frankly I think it's absurd we're still allowing the sale of some luxury petrol/diesel vehicles.

For instance I can walk into a dealership now and buy a 3L Range Rover petrol SUV.  A horrible vehicle for many reasons, not least due to who usually drives it, but with a huge emissions profile too.

"Nobody" needs such a vehicle yet it will likely be on the roads for 15-20 years.  I would like to see the >£50k price bracket be electric only with very few exceptions for e.g. work trucks and the like.  At the lower end ordinary consumers can still buy a Golf, Focus etc. powered by petrol whilst EVs remain inaccessible for them for a number of reasons like not having somewhere to park and charge.

See people with attitudes like yours make me want to go buy the biggest dirtiest truck I can find and drive it around just out of spite. You don't get to tell other people what they need, you are not in charge, even though you give the impression that you dearly wish you had the power to rule over people. This is frankly disturbing.

[james_s]

Laws with no sunset date aren't always easy to turn back. Proper politicians/kleptocrats shy away from just reversing old laws, populists don't give a shit but populists don't get into power that often in the west ... it happens, but not all that often.

I wouldn't be too sure about that. I've never been one to vote for that sort, but I will if laws start being passed that impact me negatively, and there are a lot of other people around with similar views. When people start to suffer they get angry. People don't like to be pushed around and be told what to do. You can get a lot more change through gentle encouragement than by force.

[TimFox]

Frankly I think it's absurd we're still allowing the sale of some luxury petrol/diesel vehicles.

For instance I can walk into a dealership now and buy a 3L Range Rover petrol SUV.  A horrible vehicle for many reasons, not least due to who usually drives it, but with a huge emissions profile too.

"Nobody" needs such a vehicle yet it will likely be on the roads for 15-20 years.  I would like to see the >£50k price bracket be electric only with very few exceptions for e.g. work trucks and the like.  At the lower end ordinary consumers can still buy a Golf, Focus etc. powered by petrol whilst EVs remain inaccessible for them for a number of reasons like not having somewhere to park and charge.

See people with attitudes like yours make me want to go buy the biggest dirtiest truck I can find and drive it around just out of spite. You don't get to tell other people what they need, you are not in charge, even though you give the impression that you dearly wish you had the power to rule over people. This is frankly disturbing.

I think of people with your attitude every time that I'm stuck behind a dump truck with filthy exhaust (full of particulates) on the road.
There is need for regulation of vehicles using the public highways.

[nctnico]

In the NL cars that use more fuel are heavily taxed. Which means some cars are no longer on the market because nobody buys them. It is a simple system that still allows people to buy the car they want IF they have the money. The worst example is a Lada with a list price of around 15k euro that gets another 15k euro on top of the price due to emission tax.

EU wide car manufacturers must stay under a certain average amount of CO2 emission per km over all the cars they sell OR pay a hefty fine. This gives them an incentive to focus on selling efficient cars OR selling inefficient cars for a higher price.

[SiliconWizard]

Meanwhile, I'll fart to make my daily quota of methane. Thanks!

[tom66]

See people with attitudes like yours make me want to go buy the biggest dirtiest truck I can find and drive it around just out of spite. You don't get to tell other people what they need, you are not in charge, even though you give the impression that you dearly wish you had the power to rule over people. This is frankly disturbing.

I mean if you're talking about something that doesn't impact someone else then fine?  I don't care if you smoke weed, walk down the street topless, or listen to dubstep, all things I don't particularly like... it's your choice!  But if you drive a big SUV through city streets, you are creating more pollution for me to breathe in.  And that's objectively harmful to my health and others.  Given the vast majority of these vehicles are purchased for vanity I'd be quite happy to see every one of them disappear overnight. 

The thing is, at least in Europe, we've only had them in noticeable numbers for about 15-20 years.   Note that the greatest concentration of these vehicles is found in areas of rich, central London - these are four-wheel drive, five seat luxobarges.  They're literally called "Chelsea Tractors" around here, after the area of London they're commonly found in.  They carry no more passengers than a Ford Focus, but occupy 50% more road space and consume twice as much energy per mile (and by deduction pollute about twice as much too.)  What was it that made them so necessary for the population to get?  It is vanity, keeping up with the Joneses, but with a strong negative societal cost so it is morally right to ban such vehicles.  By the way, whilst the electric SUVs are better than petrol ones, they still have a higher cost in that they are more dangerous to pedestrians and cyclists, take more room to park on public roads, and might produce more brake/tyre dust, so I'm still not a fan of them.

[tautech]

Dang, all this vapor will act as a greenhouse gas and will increase temperatures, won't it?

Yep, known fact for nearly 12 months but that's not all folks......
Here in NZ we have seen lower UV especially over our winter where solar installations underperformed compared to previous years.
Just that equates to a further reduction in EV range.

[tautech]

Note that the greatest concentration of these vehicles is found in areas of rich, central London - these are four-wheel drive, five seat luxobarges.  They're literally called "Chelsea Tractors" around here, after the area of London they're commonly found in. 

FFS, insert name of any posh suburb in the world, where have you been ?
This is nothing new and any person's right to have a vehicle that best suits their needs and budget.......then there's keeping up with the Jones', go blame them.

Smells more like green eyes.

[tszaboo]

But I fully support a hard ban , leave it up to individuals and you’ll have people buying 2nd hand dino juice cars mfor years

Well I will not vote for anyone that supports a hard ban, period. And yes, people will be buying up used ICE cars for years and values will rise. You'll have to pry mine from my cold, dead hands. I say this as someone that generally likes EVs, I absolutely loathe governments that try to throw their weight around. Governments work for the people, not the other way around. A government should fear its citizens.

Governments need to step in, when the ordinary citizen isn't smart enough to look after a shared resource. Tragedy of the commons. Unfortunately, your idiot politicians again turned something evident into a political debate. It amazes me that both sides of the US politics is filled with science deniers, and created a post truth society.
The movies "Just look up" and "Idiocracy" describes how we look at the US now as an outsider. Oh, and where I'm from (not NL) is run by a dictator, probably worse. Someone get me an AI overlord pls.