EV-based road transportation is not viable

[jonovid]

a trolleybus system or electric highway may have some merit as do electric railways that do not have peak power times as many battery electric vehicles at fast charging stations at the same time.
the electric motors of electric railway/ trolleybus are not requiring meny times of capacity. however for battery electric vehicles  1 hr of run time is divided by charging time watts multiplied.
and so the compressing and decompressing of energy is expensive and time-consuming.  eliminating the need for on vehicle energy storage makes all electric road transportation less demanding.

[vad]

Comparison of costs of driving Tesla Model 3 vs a comparable small size passenger car VW Jetta in Massachusetts.

Model 3:

Average miles per kWh:  3.39 mi/kWh (source: https://insideevs.com/news/597460/tesla-efficiency-depends-on-driver/amp/ )

Energy to drive 100 miles: 100 mi / 3.39 mi/kWh = 29.5 kWh

Electricity generation cost in MA: 10.927c per kWh
Delivery service cost in MA: 15.046c per kWh
Total electricity cost: 25.973c per kWh

Electricity cost to drive 100 miles: 29.5 kWh * 25.973c/kWh = $7.66

2022 VW Jetta:

Fuel economy: 35 MPG (EPA Combined city/highway)

Gas to drive 100 miles: 100 miles / 35 MPG = 2.86 gallons

Today’s gas cost in MA: $3.099 per gallon

Cost to drive 100 miles in Jetta: 2.86 gal * 3.099 $/gal = $8.86

Tesla Model 3 is only 15% more cost efficient per mile  than Jetta, while being 115% more expensive car (44K vs 20.5K for base models).

Edit: and this is before our state legislature figured out how to tax EV owners for road usage.

[bdunham7]

Because you scale capacity to the maximum current draw in the worst case scenario. It does not make sense to install two 70A fast chargers and keep a 200A service. Unless it is a dedicated service into your garage only, and the rest of the house - air conditioners, electric ranges, tumble dryer, etc. are powered from a different 200A service.

On the other hand, getting Tesla and not getting fast charger is dooming yourself into charging times of 24+ hours. It is cruelty. You could buy a better (more spacious, more luxury, less expensive - you choose) petrol car and have ability to refuel it in 5 minutes at any gas station.

Now you're getting a bit FUD-dy.  A Tesla HPWC and a regular 30A Level 2 EVSE would be (barely) doable with 200A service and would be a lot of charging capacity even for a household with multiple EVs.  And even a fully-depleted 100kWh Model X would only take about 15 hours to fully charge at the regular 30A EVSE.  Model 3/Y, a lot less.  And many larger homes now do have 400A service. If you can afford two or more large capacity EVs, the service entrance upgrade is probably within your reach.

[MadScientist]

Comparison of costs of driving Tesla Model 3 vs a comparable small size passenger car VW Jetta in Massachusetts.

Model 3:

Average miles per kWh:  3.39 mi/kWh (source: https://insideevs.com/news/597460/tesla-efficiency-depends-on-driver/amp/ )

Energy to drive 100 miles: 100 mi / 3.39 mi/kWh = 29.5 kWh

Electricity generation cost in MA: 10.927c per kWh
Delivery service cost in MA: 15.046c per kWh
Total electricity cost: 25.973c per kWh

Electricity cost to drive 100 miles: 29.5 kWh * 25.973c/kWh = $7.66

2022 VW Jetta:

Fuel economy: 35 MPG (EPA Combined city/highway)

Gas to drive 100 miles: 100 miles / 35 MPG = 2.86 gallons

Today’s gas cost in MA: $3.099 per gallon

Cost to drive 100 miles in Jetta: 2.86 gal * 3.099 $/gal = $8.86

Tesla Model 3 is only 15% more cost efficient per mile  than Jetta, while being 115% more expensive car (44K vs 20.5K for base models).

Edit: and this is before our state legislature figured out how to tax EV owners for road usage.

It’s a mistake to assume Bev will remain cheaper to run , private transport is expensive and will remain so , owning c car is expensive that’s not going away

[MadScientist]

Comparison of costs of driving Tesla Model 3 vs a comparable small size passenger car VW Jetta in Massachusetts.

Model 3:

Average miles per kWh:  3.39 mi/kWh (source: https://insideevs.com/news/597460/tesla-efficiency-depends-on-driver/amp/ )

Energy to drive 100 miles: 100 mi / 3.39 mi/kWh = 29.5 kWh

Electricity generation cost in MA: 10.927c per kWh
Delivery service cost in MA: 15.046c per kWh
Total electricity cost: 25.973c per kWh

Electricity cost to drive 100 miles: 29.5 kWh * 25.973c/kWh = $7.66

2022 VW Jetta:

Fuel economy: 35 MPG (EPA Combined city/highway)

Gas to drive 100 miles: 100 miles / 35 MPG = 2.86 gallons

Today’s gas cost in MA: $3.099 per gallon

Cost to drive 100 miles in Jetta: 2.86 gal * 3.099 $/gal = $8.86

Tesla Model 3 is only 15% more cost efficient per mile  than Jetta, while being 115% more expensive car (44K vs 20.5K for base models).

Edit: and this is before our state legislature figured out how to tax EV owners for road usage.

I charge at night rate for 11 €0.11 at present rates up from ( €0.087) hence Bev comparisons are often terribly inaccurate as people’s electricity rates are extremely varied

Secondly the total cost of ownership not just a fixed  journey has to be computed to arrive at a realistic figure 

We use night rate extensively  , as we run timed water heating , dishwasher and clothes washing and drying every day along with thd bev charging , resulting in 60% of our bill is on night rate

[tautech]

Comparison of costs of driving Tesla Model 3 vs a comparable small size passenger car VW Jetta in Massachusetts.

Model 3:

Average miles per kWh:  3.39 mi/kWh (source: https://insideevs.com/news/597460/tesla-efficiency-depends-on-driver/amp/ )

Energy to drive 100 miles: 100 mi / 3.39 mi/kWh = 29.5 kWh

Electricity generation cost in MA: 10.927c per kWh
Delivery service cost in MA: 15.046c per kWh
Total electricity cost: 25.973c per kWh

Electricity cost to drive 100 miles: 29.5 kWh * 25.973c/kWh = $7.66

2022 VW Jetta:

Fuel economy: 35 MPG (EPA Combined city/highway)

Gas to drive 100 miles: 100 miles / 35 MPG = 2.86 gallons

Today’s gas cost in MA: $3.099 per gallon

Cost to drive 100 miles in Jetta: 2.86 gal * 3.099 $/gal = $8.86

Tesla Model 3 is only 15% more cost efficient per mile  than Jetta, while being 115% more expensive car (44K vs 20.5K for base models).

Edit: and this is before our state legislature figured out how to tax EV owners for road usage.

It’s a mistake to assume Bev will remain cheaper to run , private transport is expensive and will remain so , owning c car is expensive that’s not going away

No one gives a shit and all they want is choice. While the convenience of an ICE vehicle remains they will remain popular. People select their cars to suit needs and if the odd long trip is part of that then who are you or anyone for that matter to say they can't make that choice.

When the right car/van/SUV/utility arrives on the market people will vote with their wallets.

[tom66]

Comparison of costs of driving Tesla Model 3 vs a comparable small size passenger car VW Jetta in Massachusetts.

The Model 3 is, at least somewhat 'semi luxury'.  Maybe compare comparable vehicles?  Model 3 is close to Audi A4, BMW 3 series etc.  Or you could compare VW e-Golf to VW normal Golf.

Also I'm amazed you pay more for your distribution service than your actual electricity (in the sense that they charge 15c for delivery and 10c for the 'fuel'). Around here we pay much more for the energy, distribution is only <5p/kWh.

For the garage with 3 cars in it, I guess you would need a service upgrade if all cars are doing 70-80A charging.  That would be applicable if everyone in the house needed their cars charged up in under 4 hours to do 300 miles.  I can't think of a common use case for that. For say 100 miles usage per day the car would easily fill up on 20A charging.

This is the mentality difference between EV and petrol.  You fill up as fast as you can on petrol.  For an EV you don't, you fill up at the rate you really need, and only use fast charging when you're on a road trip or in an urgency/emergency.

 

[tom66]

Congratulations that is very difficult to do, doing laundry at 11pm at night often has me exhausted the next day because I didn't go to sleep early enough.

I have considered putting everything on timers.

Our dishwasher, dryer and washer all have timers on them.  Annoyingly they aren't consistent, the washer and dryer are "finished in" so you need to do some mental arithmetic to line them up, and the dishwasher is 'starts in' but only has 3hr granularity.

[tszaboo]

While I welcome our new battery wielding metal lords I still don't see how it will be possible for everybody to convert over to BEV.

You are making this a joke, but it's a serious argument.
It seems impossible at the moment to switch to 100% BEV right now, there is not enough manufacturing capacity for it. Solid state battery seems delayed, and regular battery formation is time consuming, meaning that you need a very parallelized production plant to produce it. To give you an idea, an alkaline battery takes ~3 seconds to test and you have a production line which could make several a second. Compare this to an EV battery, or even a 18650, that takes several hours at elevated temperature for the formation. I've seen first hand how much time and effort it takes to make a battery manufacturing plant. We are already too late to stat to support all the countries that are banning in 2030.

This is also the Toyota argument. They said, they can either make a million hybrid cars (not even plug-in), and reduce their emissions by 30% or make tens of thousands of BEV, and reduce their emissions by 100% (though electricity comes from somewhere). So making hybrids saves 10-30 times the emissions.
Cars are getting very expensive as it is, but I wouldn't be surprised if because of supply and demand, the profit margin on them would skyrocket because of countries banning ICE.
So even if you are a BEV fan, maybe you will just not be able to afford it as your next car.

[MadScientist]

Comparison of costs of driving Tesla Model 3 vs a comparable small size passenger car VW Jetta in Massachusetts.

Model 3:

Average miles per kWh:  3.39 mi/kWh (source: https://insideevs.com/news/597460/tesla-efficiency-depends-on-driver/amp/ )

Energy to drive 100 miles: 100 mi / 3.39 mi/kWh = 29.5 kWh

Electricity generation cost in MA: 10.927c per kWh
Delivery service cost in MA: 15.046c per kWh
Total electricity cost: 25.973c per kWh

Electricity cost to drive 100 miles: 29.5 kWh * 25.973c/kWh = $7.66

2022 VW Jetta:

Fuel economy: 35 MPG (EPA Combined city/highway)

Gas to drive 100 miles: 100 miles / 35 MPG = 2.86 gallons

Today’s gas cost in MA: $3.099 per gallon

Cost to drive 100 miles in Jetta: 2.86 gal * 3.099 $/gal = $8.86

Tesla Model 3 is only 15% more cost efficient per mile  than Jetta, while being 115% more expensive car (44K vs 20.5K for base models).

Edit: and this is before our state legislature figured out how to tax EV owners for road usage.

It’s a mistake to assume Bev will remain cheaper to run , private transport is expensive and will remain so , owning c car is expensive that’s not going away

No one gives a shit and all they want is choice. While the convenience of an ICE vehicle remains they will remain popular. People select their cars to suit needs and if the odd long trip is part of that then who are you or anyone for that matter to say they can't make that choice.

When the right car/van/SUV/utility arrives on the market people will vote with their wallets.

m
Well choice is only available if the product is made increasing ice production will disappear,  major car companies have taken BEV only production. , furthermore many countries are enacting tax and legislation to make ice ownership more expensive ( or making car ownership generally  more expensive including limiting city access high parking , road tolls etc ) planners favour public transport and this is also expanding in many places ( trams, metro etc)

Hence the invectives will continue to favour BEVs for a while so Ice will fade as people run out of choice and the second hand market dries up and the tax and legislative situation favours non ice.

I suspect the heyday of private automobile is over avd increasingltbit will be seen as frivolous unless absolutely necvessaey

[MadScientist]

resulting in 60% of our bill is on night rate

Congratulations that is very difficult to do, doing laundry at 11pm at night often has me exhausted the next day because I didn't go to sleep early enough.

I have considered putting everything on timers.

It wasn’t difficult the clothes start at 9pm at the night  rate start and wash and dry and ready in the morning the dishwasher starts at 12 midnight avd the EV charging kicks off at 2am , water heating starts at 6am

Currently with that and all the free credits the gov has given to offset price hikes I have 779 euros in credit with my electricity supplier !!!!! And my average bill is €70 every 8 weeks !!!

[MadScientist]

While I welcome our new battery wielding metal lords I still don't see how it will be possible for everybody to convert over to BEV.

You are making this a joke, but it's a serious argument.
It seems impossible at the moment to switch to 100% BEV right now, there is not enough manufacturing capacity for it. Solid state battery seems delayed, and regular battery formation is time consuming, meaning that you need a very parallelized production plant to produce it. To give you an idea, an alkaline battery takes ~3 seconds to test and you have a production line which could make several a second. Compare this to an EV battery, or even a 18650, that takes several hours at elevated temperature for the formation. I've seen first hand how much time and effort it takes to make a battery manufacturing plant. We are already too late to stat to support all the countries that are banning in 2030.

This is also the Toyota argument. They said, they can either make a million hybrid cars (not even plug-in), and reduce their emissions by 30% or make tens of thousands of BEV, and reduce their emissions by 100% (though electricity comes from somewhere). So making hybrids saves 10-30 times the emissions.
Cars are getting very expensive as it is, but I wouldn't be surprised if because of supply and demand, the profit margin on them would skyrocket because of countries banning ICE.
So even if you are a BEV fan, maybe you will just not be able to afford it as your next car.

Toyota’s strategy has been laughed at by the industry (?see Honda ceo comments ) and the industry thinks they are totally misguided al la Betamax. Hence it’s an outlier and best ignored 

Hybrids have no future as it’s essentially an ice and governments will ban ice anyway , Bev is the only workable solution we have.

BEVs are much cheaper to make than ice and  low cost BEVs will be soon available making the true “ vokscar “ a reality , but equally changing public attitudes to private cars will have a huge effect especially in urban centres , for example here , new apartment blocks needs provide no private car parking if within 1km of a  tram, metro or rail  station . Increasing car spaces are at a premium and many urban young have decided against car ownership ( neither my adult children own cars )

Burning dino juice is over it’s just a matter of how long the transition will be certainly 2035 is overly ambitious but I think by then all most all new cars will be BEV and thd tax and legislative restrictions will  make ice very unpopular if even legal at all

Hybrids end up running on ice most of the time hence they are a useless concept. Here BEVs outsell Hybrid 2:1 most from purchase cost issues and because there are Bev tax advantages , hybrid is going nowhere in the face of increasing capable BEV cars , why have two engines when the equivalent Bev is better cheaper and lower cost to run.

[mikeselectricstuff]

God I hope you are wrong.

Because if you are right then Toyota will fail as a company.

Toyota and many other legacy auto makers are doomed to bankrupcy or mergers.
Tesla are making much better margins while not being saddled with massive debt, and the Chinese EV makers like Nio, BYD, ORA etc. are coming to finish off legacy auto at the lower end of the market.
 

[nctnico]

God I hope you are wrong.

Because if you are right then Toyota will fail as a company.

Which is not going to happen! Toyota is the biggest car manufacturer in the world and has a proven track record of being sensible where it comes to CO2 and pollution reduction. Of all car manufacturers Toyota is the only one that doesn't need to sell BEVs in order to meet the EU CO2 emission limits! Toyota is one of the few car manufacturers that has stopped selling diesel cars (and did that a long time ago). Anyone claiming Toyota has it wrong or will fail, is an utter idiot. To me it is clear that there are some very clever people working at Toyota that have developed a long term strategy that keeps the company healthy.

That doesn't mean other car manufacturers will fail. While the European car manufacturers seem to sit mostly on their arses, they can afford that because they have extremely deep pockets and have several technologies ready to go when needed. See how quick Volkswagen's electric cars caught up with Tesla and is outselling Tesla with a large margin nowadays.

Tesla are making much better margins while not being saddled with massive debt, and the Chinese EV makers like Nio, BYD, ORA etc. are coming to finish off legacy auto at the lower end of the market.

Tesla has slashed their prices significantly world wide so their profitability just went down the drain. Chinese car manufacturers are still behind where it comes to quality and useability. Over here the government has banned Chinese electric busses for use in public transport because they have too many problems which cause the service to be too unreliable.

[tom66]

God I hope you are wrong.

Because if you are right then Toyota will fail as a company.

History is littered with examples of companies that were huge and did not adapt to the times. Or companies that failed to adapt and lost out, despite having a competitive advantage beforehand.

In automotive the textbook case is how Toyota, Honda and Nissan became dominant across the world, because they responded to customer demands for more fuel economic vehicles.  Has Toyota ever been close to bankruptcy?  No, but Ford and GM both have been (GM being bailed out by the US government) and Chrysler went into Chap 11. There are lots more reasons than lack of fuel economy for this but it shows how the market can change in favour of customer demand.

[tom66]

Tesla are making much better margins while not being saddled with massive debt, and the Chinese EV makers like Nio, BYD, ORA etc. are coming to finish off legacy auto at the lower end of the market.

Tesla has slashed their prices significantly world wide so their profitability just went down the drain. Chinese car manufacturers are still behind where it comes to quality and useability.

No, if anything, Tesla slashing prices is really bad for other automakers.  A brand new ID.3 with the 58kWh battery is only £5k less than a Model 3, with 302hp, autopliot (on the highway it's great), 250kW fast charging, and the supercharging network as well as standard CCS.  And they offer the same warranty on the car and battery as an established manufacturer (3yr/60k on the car, 8yr/120k on the battery, VW only do 8yr/100k).  Tesla is easily making 30% gross margin at the higher price and at the lower price is probably still clearing a good 15%. 

It is true their stock price seems overvalued, but they are still serious competition and will not have any difficulty being profitable. Dropping the price is just stimulating demand now that supply has finally caught up.

Having sat in and driven some of the Chinese EVs whilst they aren't yet at the level of the German marques they are not far off.  All plastics and interior materials feel high quality, the cars ride and drive well, the software is good, there is no badly translated English in the interfaces (just slightly idiosyncratic terms, like "Delaying charger timing" instead of "Charging times" for the off peak setting.)  In fact, the MG4 user interface was (IMO) way better than the ID.3 interface, faster and more responsive and much less dependent on the touch screen.  The biggest problem with these cars is that they don't have much reputation, you don't know if in a decade that manufacturer will still be around to service or repair it.

[vad]

Now you're getting a bit FUD-dy.  A Tesla HPWC and a regular 30A Level 2 EVSE would be (barely) doable with 200A service and would be a lot of charging capacity even for a household with multiple EVs.  And even a fully-depleted 100kWh Model X would only take about 15 hours to fully charge at the regular 30A EVSE.

Your math does not add up.

The maximum current you can constantly draw from a 30A receptacle is 24A, at least here in the US - read National Electrical Code or talk to a licensed electrician.

So the maximum power you can draw is 240V * 24A = 5.76 kW. In the 15 hours you can add maximum 86.4 kWh, assuming zero losses and assuming CC phase.

To recharge a fully depleted 100 kWh battery would probably take 25-30 hours, considering CV phase at the end. Way longer than the claimed 15 hours.

[tom66]

Your math does not add up.

The maximum current you can constantly draw from a 30A receptacle is 24A, at least here in the US - read National Electrical Code or talk to a licensed electrician.

So the maximum power you can draw is 240V * 24A = 5.76 kW. In the 15 hours you can add maximum 86.4 kWh, assuming zero losses and assuming CC phase.

To recharge a fully depleted 100 kWh battery would probably take 25-30 hours, considering CV phase at the end. Way longer than the claimed 15 hours.

Virtually every EV charges on a fixed charging power for the entire charging cycle, besides perhaps the last few kWh.  This is because the C rate is typically a fraction of the full capacity.  So it's pretty reasonable to say charging_time = capacity / power.  You would need around 18 hours, not 25-30 hours.   This only starts to change when you get to fast charging and C rates are between 1~4 then, with the 80-100% period being a lot slower than the 0-80% period.  There are even then exceptions to that, like the Audi e-Tron which charges at 80kW up to 100% because it has a very unusual chemistry which tolerates this.

For the rare case of a household having 3 EVs that all need to be charged up with 100kWh in 12 hours, then you can have 120A of service to the garage, each charger running at 32A,  that would do it fine.   You still don't need a 400A service.
 
But how many people (as a collective household!) drive 350 miles EACH in 3 cars a day?    The fact you have to conceive of such unlikely scenarios to reject EVs is telling.   

[bdunham7]

Your math does not add up.

The maximum current you can constantly draw from a 30A receptacle is 24A,

Who said anything about a 30A receptacle?  I said a 30A EVSE, just like the one I have in my garage.  It is on a 40A breaker, of course.   I can easily install two of those at my house if need be because there were previously two electric water heaters.  I even reused the wiring for mine since one water heater is in the garage.

As for your CV tail, now that I think of it you wouldn't typically be charging your Tesla to 100% on a regular basis, right?  And you won't typically be arriving home at 0% either.  So from 10% to 90% at a full 7.2kW, how long does that take?  About 11 hours?  But we don't have to speculate, Tesla owners have reported that it takes 14-15 hours to completely recharge a long-range X from nearly 0% to 100% at a 7.2kW Level 2 charger.  It probably varies a bit with temperature and so on.

[vad]

The Model 3 is, at least somewhat 'semi luxury'.  Maybe compare comparable vehicles?  Model 3 is close to Audi A4, BMW 3 series etc.  Or you could compare VW e-Golf to VW normal Golf.

Model 3 looks as ugly as Toyota Corolla to my taste. YMMV.

I can't think of a common use case for that. For say 100 miles usage per day the car would easily fill up on 20A charging.

I have a friend who commutes from New Hampshire to Boston 150 miles round trip every day. Can’t really tell if he is a typical commuter. But considering the number of cars with NH license plates that I see on the roads during peak hours, I do not think my friend is alone.

[nctnico]

And think about sales people and service engineers that drive to customers all day long.

[tom66]

The Model 3 is, at least somewhat 'semi luxury'.  Maybe compare comparable vehicles?  Model 3 is close to Audi A4, BMW 3 series etc.  Or you could compare VW e-Golf to VW normal Golf.

Model 3 looks as ugly as Toyota Corolla to my taste. YMMV.

I actually agree.  But if we're talking about ugly cars nothing beats the new BMW grilles...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BMW_i4#/media/File:BMW_i4_IMG_6695.jpg

Automakers are going to have to figure out how to integrate their legacy ICE styling in with EVs that need much less cooling.  BMW has clearly missed the mark;  the i3 looked better to me (but even then that wasn't a great looking car.)  ID.3 is also a bit ugly.  What happened to just putting an electric motor and battery in a normal car?  I'd love a Golf with a 60kWh battery but the only choice is ID.3.  Which is not hideous but compared to the Mk7 Golf is not a good look.

I can't think of a common use case for that. For say 100 miles usage per day the car would easily fill up on 20A charging.

I have a friend who commutes from New Hampshire to Boston 150 miles round trip every day. Can’t really tell if he is a typical commuter. But considering the number of cars with NH license plates that I see on the roads during peak hours, I do not think my friend is alone.

150 miles per day at say 60 mph avg speed is 2.5 hours of commuting every day, sure they do exist, but even then an EV would accommodate that. 300-350 miles a day, maybe only for a travelling sales person kind of job rather than typical commuting.

[vad]

I actually agree.  But if we're talking about ugly cars nothing beats the new BMW grilles...

Nothing beats ugliness of BMW i3: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/BMW_i3

I guess BMW is doing this on purpose, so people would continue buying gorgeous ICE models from BMW.

[vad]

Fueling time of hydrogen Toyota Mirai from zero to full tank (260 miles range) is 4.5 minutes: https://youtu.be/5lUkOHnjLsM

[vad]

EVs powered by hydrogen fuel cells is the future, in my very humble opinion.

Oil reserves will eventually get depleted. 50 years from now petrol cars will be extinct. They will get extinct not because some bureaucrats decided so, but because oil supply will dry up.

While home charging at ridiculously slow rate could become acceptable to some consumers in some countries (countries where majority of car owners also own a garage, unlike in Serbia and Russia), battery energy storage is infeasible for commercial vehicles and freight trucks anywhere in the world.

Hydrogen infrastructure will grow primarily to support transition of commercial and freight transportation and from hydrocarbon fuels to hydrogen.

Once hydrogen infrastructure emerges, hydrogen passenger EVs would become abundant, and they will compete with battery powered EVs. Fast refueling times would be one of the competitive advantages.

Since both battery powered EVs and hydrogen fuel cell powered EVs share similar power train - electric motors and power electronics to drive the motors, hybrid cars would emerge, where a main hydrogen fuel cell power source would be supplemented by low capacity chemical battery for customers who get used to slow overnight charging, and perhaps a supercapacitor battery for temporary regenerative energy storage from braking.