Covid 19 virus

[not1xor1]

Worse by them , they will lose information of how work the world behind the scenes. I believe(hypotesis) that the covid  was released by the chinese goverment or by  a faction of the Chinese  Comunist Party versus Xi Jinping.

1-2 weeks ago Nature Medicine published a convincing article stating the virus is of natural origin

the main responsibility is likely in the slow reaction of Wuhan local government while other countries just deluded themselves into believing all this would have remained in Asia and would have never concerned them

no country took the chance to prepare in advance for the future emergency
even when things started to run out of control in Italy most of people in charge in the other countries didn't care much

most people just cannot realize how fast this spreads and changes everything and then it is too late

[thinkfat]

in order to realize how fast this thing gets out of control just take into account what is happening in Germany.
Such low (apparent and provisional) death rate looked so strange that lots of magazines and newspapers wrote that Italy had screwed up the statistics.

Well, in Germany just ten days ago deaths/know-cases rate was 0.38%
yesterday it had got up to 1.1%
this morning we already are at 1.2%

This says nothing beyond the number of people they are testing in Germany. Maybe test materials start to run low and they only test people with clear symptoms. In the Netherlands ('our' worst hit area is next to the worst hit area in Germany) the cases versus death is 8.6%.

Indeed. We've almost reached capacity of testing by now. I don't think we can go beyond 200k/week in the near future, even when politicians say we need to. Not enough supply for making test kits. Myself, still in isolation for being in a room with an infected person, wasn't tested. I doubt I caught it. Symptoms were almost unnoticeable.

The CFR depends a lot not only on number of tests but also on who you test. If you test only those with severe symptoms, naturally CFR is high. Up to now we've tested even patients with mild or no symptoms, to prevent spread by early isolation. With social distancing in place and (potentially) everyone being required to wear "masks", maybe the spread can be controlled without the massive testing effort.

[not1xor1]

in order to realize how fast this thing gets out of control just take into account what is happening in Germany.
Such low (apparent and provisional) death rate looked so strange that lots of magazines and newspapers wrote that Italy had screwed up the statistics.

Well, in Germany just ten days ago deaths/know-cases rate was 0.38%
yesterday it had got up to 1.1%
this morning we already are at 1.2%

This says nothing beyond the number of people they are testing in Germany. Maybe test materials start to run low and they only test people with clear symptoms. In the Netherlands ('our' worst hit area is next to the worst hit area in Germany) the cases versus death is 8.6%.

Indeed. We've almost reached capacity of testing by now. I don't think we can go beyond 200k/week in the near future, even when politicians say we need to. Not enough supply for making test kits. Myself, still in isolation for being in a room with an infected person, wasn't tested. I doubt I caught it. Symptoms were almost unnoticeable.

The CFR depends a lot not only on number of tests but also on who you test. If you test only those with severe symptoms, naturally CFR is high. Up to now we've tested even patients with mild or no symptoms, to prevent spread by early isolation. With social distancing in place and (potentially) everyone being required to wear "masks", maybe the spread can be controlled without the massive testing effort.

after 13-14 hours it's already at 1.3%: (https://virusncov.com/)
in any case I wish both of you a prompt recovery (and with the mildest of the symptoms) 

[vodka]

I believe(hypotesis) that the covid  was released by the chinese goverment or by  a faction of the Chinese  Comunist Party versus Xi Jinping.

For what? Two months of the world's second largest economy going on pause costed immeasurable amount of money. So far, in terms of direct and indirect cost for fighting this virus, China is on top of the top spender list.

For what?  For dominating the world without doing another World War,without destroyed  infrastructers and industries.  How? Using the arrogance of the West? What used the China?

1: I suppose that they release the bug  for causing Attrition warfare . Reason: The chinese are more prepared(They have more experienced in SARS) and their economy is more solid than the west countries.
2 All the world stock market crashes ,incluide the china. China waits the  west speculators fall in trap. And China "pone una pica en Flandes*" get the 30% of  all western companies.
3. The bug invade USA and their economy fall, Donald Trump has less options to be re-elected. China achieve  to avoid another "trade war" with USA(Really,that is possible).

Literaly, the chinese plan is Machiavellian
 

*Poner una pica en Flandes: perform an action very hardest ,besides to be  a landmark.

[tautech]

I believe(hypotesis) that the covid  was released by the chinese goverment or by  a faction of the Chinese  Comunist Party versus Xi Jinping.

For what? Two months of the world's second largest economy going on pause costed immeasurable amount of money. So far, in terms of direct and indirect cost for fighting this virus, China is on top of the top spender list.

For what?  For dominating the world without doing another World War,without destroyed  infrastructers and industries.  How? Using the arrogance of the West? What used the China?

1: I suppose that they release the bug  for causing Attrition warfare . Reason: The chinese are more prepared(They have more experienced in SARS) and their economy is more solid than the west countries.
2 All the world stock market crashes ,incluide the china. China waits the  west speculators fall in trap. And China "pone una pica en Flandes*" get the 30% of  all western companies.
3. The bug invade USA and their economy fall, Donald Trump has less options to be re-elected. China achieve  to avoid another "trade war" with USA(Really,that is possible).

Literaly, the chinese plan is Machiavellian
 

*Poner una pica en Flandes: perform an action very hardest ,besides to be  a landmark.

Go take your conspiracy theories elsewhere.

[coppice]

Go take your conspiracy theories elsewhere.

That's just what they want you to do. 

[2N3055]

Yep BD139 was right .... Going south fast..

[bd139]

Ugh I hate it when I'm right because I'm a cynical bastard 

[Cerebus]

I believe(hypotesis) that the covid  was released by the chinese goverment or by  a faction of the Chinese  Comunist Party versus Xi Jinping.

For what? Two months of the world's second largest economy going on pause costed immeasurable amount of money. So far, in terms of direct and indirect cost for fighting this virus, China is on top of the top spender list.

For what?  For dominating the world without doing another World War,without destroyed  infrastructers and industries.  How? Using the arrogance of the West? What used the China?

1: I suppose that they release the bug  for causing Attrition warfare . Reason: The chinese are more prepared(They have more experienced in SARS) and their economy is more solid than the west countries.
2 All the world stock market crashes ,incluide the china. China waits the  west speculators fall in trap. And China "pone una pica en Flandes*" get the 30% of  all western companies.
3. The bug invade USA and their economy fall, Donald Trump has less options to be re-elected. China achieve  to avoid another "trade war" with USA(Really,that is possible).

Literaly, the chinese plan is Machiavellian
 

*Poner una pica en Flandes: perform an action very hardest ,besides to be  a landmark.

I take back the polite approach. You're a nutjob. Go and bother someone else, the adults are trying to have a conversation.

[vodka]

Conspiracy theories , yes , yes.
 But the last 20 years have been virus. The bacteries seem  to be of holidays.

[SilverSolder]

I believe(hypotesis) that the covid  was released by the chinese goverment or by  a faction of the Chinese  Comunist Party versus Xi Jinping.

For what? Two months of the world's second largest economy going on pause costed immeasurable amount of money. So far, in terms of direct and indirect cost for fighting this virus, China is on top of the top spender list.

For what?  For dominating the world without doing another World War,without destroyed  infrastructers and industries.  How? Using the arrogance of the West? What used the China?

1: I suppose that they release the bug  for causing Attrition warfare . Reason: The chinese are more prepared(They have more experienced in SARS) and their economy is more solid than the west countries.
2 All the world stock market crashes ,incluide the china. China waits the  west speculators fall in trap. And China "pone una pica en Flandes*" get the 30% of  all western companies.
3. The bug invade USA and their economy fall, Donald Trump has less options to be re-elected. China achieve  to avoid another "trade war" with USA(Really,that is possible).

Literaly, the chinese plan is Machiavellian
 

*Poner una pica en Flandes: perform an action very hardest ,besides to be  a landmark.

Go take your conspiracy theories elsewhere.

It strikes me that many people seem to find it easier to deal with the idea that someone did this on purpose, rather than psychologically facing the fact that we are so subject to random whims of nature, and whims of humans.   This would explain a lot of conspiracy theories, and why so many choose to adhere to them...

[Gyro]

It strikes me that many people seem to find it easier to deal with the idea that someone did this on purpose, rather than psychologically facing the fact that we are so subject to random whims of nature, and whims of humans.   This would explain a lot of conspiracy theories, and why so many choose to adhere to them...

People seem to think that, just because we're at the top of the food chain, we don't have natural predators any more. It's just that we've mostly conquered the ones with loud growls and big teeth, because we can see those coming!

[thinkfat]

Conspiracy theories , yes , yes.

I wonder why, of all other plausible causes (like, a lab accident that was being tried to cover up), you chose biological warfare / world domination scheme by the Chinese government as the most likely option. 

[tautech]

Conspiracy theories , yes , yes.

I wonder why, of all other plausible causes (like, a lab accident that was being tried to cover up), you chose biological warfare / world domination scheme by the Chinese government as the most likely option. 

Yes well there's an opposite conspiracy theory to the one vodka proposes mentioned briefly earlier in this thread and I've heard it too from other sources.
Still, if we go down this path this thread for sure will be locked.

[PlainName]

I take back the polite approach. You're a nutjob.

Ahem. You don't have to read his stuff, never mind reply to it. And you don't have to be nasty it politeness doesn't get the response you wanted.

[PlainName]

Go take your conspiracy theories elsewhere.

Sometimes, conspiracy theories turn out to be true 

[Cerebus]

I take back the polite approach. You're a nutjob.

Ahem. You don't have to read his stuff, never mind reply to it. And you don't have to be nasty it politeness doesn't get the response you wanted.

You don't have to read my stuff, never mind reply to it.

But kind of the whole point of being here is to read, consider and reply. If I didn't read 'his stuff' how would I know whether he had something germane to add? If people, including myself, don't reply to it, how is he going to ever understand that what he's saying is nonsense.

I'll give somebody the benefit of the doubt and I did. But when they then persist in trying to spread conspiracy nonsense in the face of a polite hint that it is unwelcome balderdash, while people are trying to have a sensible conversation about something really quite serious then experience tells me that patience, politeness and prevarication don't get the job done. If one pussyfoots with nutjobs, trolls, knuckle-draggers and other like denizens they just continue dragging the conversation down into the swamp.

I find it ironic that your post immediately after the one I'm replying to could be characterised as shit-stirring. So I'm not allowed to be blunt with people, but it's fine for you to just mindlessly stir it? Some cognitive disconnect there, I feel.

[PlainName]

[deleted]
Forget that. Waste of time.

[nctnico]

It strikes me that many people seem to find it easier to deal with the idea that someone did this on purpose, rather than psychologically facing the fact that we are so subject to random whims of nature, and whims of humans.   This would explain a lot of conspiracy theories, and why so many choose to adhere to them...

People seem to think that, just because we're at the top of the food chain, we don't have natural predators any more. It's just that we've mostly conquered the ones with loud growls and big teeth, because we can see those coming!

I agree. And the evidence pointing towards a natural cause is that everybody on the entire world is equally badly affected. And the signs have been on the wall for a long time. Very contageous diseases are wrecking havoc through 'our' lifestock regulary. This time it is our turn but unlike lifestock mass killing is not considered an option.

[coppice]

It strikes me that many people seem to find it easier to deal with the idea that someone did this on purpose, rather than psychologically facing the fact that we are so subject to random whims of nature, and whims of humans.   This would explain a lot of conspiracy theories, and why so many choose to adhere to them...

People seem to think that, just because we're at the top of the food chain, we don't have natural predators any more. It's just that we've mostly conquered the ones with loud growls and big teeth, because we can see those coming!

We are reaching the point where the oldest people you know were probably born in the era of antibiotics. My grandparents could tell me horrible stories of healthy school friends who were happily playing cricket, got a minor injury, and were dead a few days later from a runaway infection. People in developed countries have gotten used to living a long life with a low risk of dying of infection along the way. They fear things like cancer and accidents instead.  Most people aren't psychologically prepared for a serious fear of infections to return. They treat this like the stuff of science fiction stories. I see people treating stories of MRSA outbreaks in hospitals like they were science fiction tales.

[Rick Law]

...
...
USA wide is just over two weeks but differs greatly depending on State.  According to University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) projection, the USA cumulative is April 16 peak.

By state:
Vermont, NY, NJ are the earliest peaking April 9;
Michigan, Connecticut, Louisiana peaks April 10;
skipping to number 23...
Georgia, Mississippi,North Carolina peaks April 22.
Last to peak are Maryland on May 14 and Virginia on May 17.

So, we will be sweating it out on different dates...

I am "disowning" the numbers I quoted in the reply above...  The numbers were quoted from Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation  (IHME), I am not longer confident in the numbers.

At time time I quoted the numbers, NJ (where I am) deaths-per-day projection was off by 9: 59 projected verse 66 actual and within the uncertainty bar.  The peak projected is 104 deaths-per-day on April 9.  The uncertainty bar range at peak is 58 to 142.

Today, I check the numbers: 4/2 deaths projected was 66 but actual was 202.  We are not even half-way up the projected-curve to the peak of 104 (142 at max of uncertainty), we are already at (about) 2x the projected peak, and at 1.4x the max-uncertainty-bar peak.

Looking at local paper's the by-county numbers, it was a general increase instead of one-off sudden rise at a particular locale or due to a particular event.  One event they did predict for 4/1/2020 that might have an effect - that NJ hospital beds needed would exceed available on 4/1.  If that is where the projection went wrong, they way under estimated the impact of the event.

For right now I have no confident in the projection.  I will however continue to compare their projections verses actual.  As they update the projection, may be it can return to be a useful tool.

[Cerebus]

We are reaching the point where the oldest people you know were probably born in the era of antibiotics. My grandparents could tell me horrible stories of healthy school friends who were happily playing cricket, got a minor injury, and were dead a few days later from a runaway infection.

Yeah. If you say that someone would have had to have been old enough when antibiotics became generally available  (1944-45) to recall tales of death from common infections earlier - lets say 14-15 years old - that would put them born in 1930, which would make them at least 90 years old now. That's 0.8% of the population here in the UK.

[DrG]

Bill Gates interview by Trevor Noah

APR 02, 2020

http://www.cc.com/episodes/iecnjn/the-daily-show-with-trevor-noah-april-2--2020---bill-gates-season-25-ep-25083

Interview is at 7.08-29.04

This is the only link I know about. "US-centric" to some degree, but not at all completely so. Worth watching in my opinion.

[Electro Detective]

China has started tracking down infected people with zero symptoms.

Today Chinese CDC has reported 2 confirmed new cases and 60 tested positive cases with zero symptoms, scattered around the country.
It seems like there MIGHT be a second wave in China. It took Wuhan about 3 weeks to go into full eruption mode, so presumable zero symptom cases can't be all isolated from society, China has less than 3 weeks to roll vaccines.
So far zero symptom cases have been considered much less contagious, but nevertheless all you need is a spark to light a forest.

   Are they using ancient magic or The Force to track them down ?

or deploying 'Minority Report' and 'ANON' movie tech to know in advance who is going to get infected with 'C' ? 

Chinese CDC could be talking through their nether regions for all we know to justify their pay and existence, and or trying to flog MIC vaccines that may contain placebo grade ingredients,
money for jam from paranoid injected suckers that if they don't get the sniffles during a 'flu period' or palmdemic they believe the vaccine must be working =   

These 'mutating' reports from China are getting hard to believe, and smell like an excuse to pump more vaccines into everyone,
adding to previous vaccines that already mess with peoples natural resistance to polluted air, unprotected or 'wrong way go back!' intercourse 
and greasy shopping trolley handles   


BTW: how far off are most members here from bankruptcy, unemployment, and dim prospects for future recovery if this global fiasCo continues for a few more weeks?

i.e. if they drag it out for months, most of you will wish you took your chances with 'C" either being a real threat or engineered money shifting panic job (again..)
and take a coin toss gamble whether you got the Fear Flu sniffles or not 

[dietert1]

If they had developed sufficient test capacity they could have tested thousands of healthy people and found some of them positive. I think this is what will happen in any country after passing the peak.

It confirms what we already know: This virus is more like AIDS. Apparently healthy people infecting others without knowing. This is the known reason why it is so much worse than flu. We will probably all need to carry masks very soon in order to loosen the lockdown.

Regards, Dieter

PS: Since i am into patient monitoring (pulse oximetry), my business will rather increase than decrease. But who knows.