Covid 19 virus

[tinhead]

How many Italians out of those hundreds of ones dying every day the Germans "fly in" ?

does it really matter? every single person counts

80% of test kits from China show false results
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3903937

These tests are ok, for antibody test, as mentioned on the test instruction "Detect IgM and IgG antibodies of the Coronavirus", so yes, they almost useless in early stage. It is very unfortunate that some politicians think they can just buy something, and if that didn't work just blame others.


Btw, that's not funny, even if really rare, but still possible: https://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/coronavirus-infected-cat-found-in-belgium

Now try to tell your cat/dog to not go outside

[paulca]

My strictly non-emotional head says that if there has to be a choice, the one most likely to survive should get the goodies. I guess that in many cases, that would mean the old being discarded, and that would sure look like discrimination. Certainly wouldn't want to be the one making that choice (actually, wouldn't want to be making any choice along those lines).

It's a bit insulting to think doctors wouldn't do everything and anything to avoid having to make those choices and wouldn't optimize their resources as far as they humanly can. Triage isn't a choice but a necessity, if and when it comes to that.

A small interview with an NHS respiratory consultant and ER junior that discusses this thorny issue.

[EEVblog]

This is the hero we need!
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/mar/30/astrophysicist-gets-magnets-stuck-up-nose-while-inventing-coronavirus-device

[VK3DRB]

Many of us are from crippled political systems where the proper response comes way too late, and with way more difficulties than it should.

Actually, from the first case traced back to 12.1 to the general mass to realize sh!t happened, it took us a good 7 weeks. Things started to smell fishy on around 1.20 and quickly escalated to full lock down of Wuhan and prepared lock down of many other cities. Until all measures were taken, it took us at least 8 good weeks to respond.

The second wave, imported cases, started to show at least a month ago, and just yesterday China closed its boarder.

So it seems we made the same mistake on wasting time. This is a delay thing. As we are seeing, Italy, then some other EU countries, then the US, are using a lot of emergency laws to make things happen now, and more countries will certainly jump on the same wagon.

World leaders are alike. They tend to cover it up, try to ride it out, until things go wrong and they go berserk and declare a full scale war against it.

You are right. But some governments are also infused with a mixture of with foolishness and stupidity, as well.

This virus fiasco in Australia could have been avoided with agile and proactive government. Ours allowed several planeloads of travellers from Wuhan out onto the streets after the virus was already out of control in Wuhan. Then we have the Ruby Princess fiasco where NSW Health allowed 2,700 off the cruise ship just a couple of weeks ago. Today there are hundreds infected from this ship. The NSW Health hypocrite is beating his chest saying anyone caught breaking the rules would be fined. He should be put under arrest.

[Muttley Snickers]

This is the hero we need!

After reading that article I have a sudden urge to touch my face.    

[Kilrah]

Another great video on the subject:

[thinkfat]

Looks like roll-out of ELISA tests for corona immune globulin is going well. My doctor called this morning to check on us and mentioned we can get tested after we resurface from isolation on Friday.
My insurance doesn't cover the test, but it's only €80 or so, money I'm definitely going to spend.

[nctnico]

Looks like roll-out of ELISA tests for corona immune globulin is going well. My doctor called this morning to check on us and mentioned we can get tested after we resurface from isolation on Friday.
My insurance doesn't cover the test, but it's only €80 or so, money I'm definitely going to spend.

That sounds good. I'd like to be tested too and hopefully these tests will become more widespread as production increases. I had a weird kind of flu earlier this month.

[bd139]

Apparently we’re going to be able to buy self test kits here on amazon soon.

Just a point to note on these: they may not be effective until 2-4 weeks after the symptoms subside. I can’t find the article I read to link to at the moment. Worth checking though.

[nctnico]

Apparently we’re going to be able to buy self test kits here on amazon soon.

Just a point to note on these: they may not be effective until 2-4 weeks after the symptoms subside. I can’t find the article I read to link to at the moment. Worth checking though.

True. I have found this graph together with a test (but these are sold to doctors only) showing the concentration of anti-bodies versus time.

[NiHaoMike]

True. I have found this graph together with a test (but these are sold to doctors only) showing the concentration of anti-bodies versus time.

That would also explain what appears to be patients getting reinfected shortly after seeming to have recovered, even though experts consider that highly unlikely. (Testing errors, of course, can also explain it.)

[Cerebus]

Apparently we’re going to be able to buy self test kits here on amazon soon.

Just a point to note on these: they may not be effective until 2-4 weeks after the symptoms subside. I can’t find the article I read to link to at the moment. Worth checking though.

Depends on which kind of antibody type it is designed to detect. For our purposes we're only interested in immunoglobulin M (IgM) and immunoglobulin G (IgG).

IgM forms rapidly during an infection, IgG comes along a bit later. Eventually both types ramp up to the sort of levels that could be detected by an ELISA test. After an infection circulating levels of IgM fall. IgG level may continue to peak after an infection and then start to fall. Both types of antibody persist to some extent after an infection and form part of the 'memory' of the immune system. Eventually the IgG levels will be higher than the IgM levels.  IgG tends to be very antigen specific, some IgM may respond to antigens other than the antigen they are specific to - indeed IgM has been observed to respond to antigens that a host has never been exposed to.

So, an IgM detecting test is good for detecting a recent infection, not so good for one in the past. It may be a bit non-specific - so it's good for telling you if someone will have an immune response to a disease, not so good for telling you if they have actually had a specific disease.

An IgG based test is nice and specific, but won't show results as soon as an IgM based test would.

So, it's all going to depend on how a particular test has been formulated as to: How soon after infection it will give results, how specific it is to the viral strain that it is testing against. Becuase of this you should most definately thoroughly read the specific instructions on the specific test you have if you manage to get hold of one. If the instructions are in Chinglish, lord help you.

No ELISA field test is going to be sensitive enough to detect an infection before it has largely or completely run its course. ELISA tests are finicky and are quite difficult to make simultaneously sensitive, reliable and robust enough for use outside laboratory conditions.

[thinkfat]

Apparently we’re going to be able to buy self test kits here on amazon soon.

Just a point to note on these: they may not be effective until 2-4 weeks after the symptoms subside. I can’t find the article I read to link to at the moment. Worth checking though.

The self tests are "lateral flow" tests. They're not very sensitive, but cheap. The ELISA tests being rolled out now over here are lab tests. You provide a blood sample and get a result a few days later. For early diagnoses, the PCR tests are still the only option.

[Nusa]

This is US-specific, with state-by-state forecasts, but I found it very interesting. Note the disclaimer in the write-up that it is "predicated on the enactment of social distancing measures in all states that have not done so already within the next week".

http://www.healthdata.org/research-article/forecasting-covid-19-impact-hospital-bed-days-icu-days-ventilator-days-and-deaths

[edavid]

The self tests are "lateral flow" tests. They're not very sensitive, but cheap. The ELISA tests being rolled out now over here are lab tests. You provide a blood sample and get a result a few days later. For early diagnoses, the PCR tests are still the only option.

The self tests that were briefly sold here in the US (before the FDA shut them down) are just self collection tests, where you mail the sample to a lab for a PCR test.  I think those will be available before lateral flow tests.

I've read that Cepheid sells some of their PCR test cartridges for around $10, so PCR tests can be pretty cheap.

[Cerebus]

Apparently we’re going to be able to buy self test kits here on amazon soon.

Just a point to note on these: they may not be effective until 2-4 weeks after the symptoms subside. I can’t find the article I read to link to at the moment. Worth checking though.

The self tests are "lateral flow" tests. They're not very sensitive, but cheap. The ELISA tests being rolled out now over here are lab tests. You provide a blood sample and get a result a few days later. For early diagnoses, the PCR tests are still the only option.

Just to be clear, the lateral flow tests are ELISA tests under the hood, they use a visible colour change (or release) and are qualitative tests. The laboratory ELISA tests typically need a spectrophotometer to read and are quantitative tests, that is instead of just saying "yup, saw some antibodies" they will give a quantitative reading in something like units/ml, which also allows a bit of interpretation to be given to the results.

[thinkfat]

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00827-6

Don't know where the numbers come from, but the amount of tests per million people is interesting. If accurate, Australia should exhibit a similar development of deaths vs. confirmed infected as Germany.

[Nusa]

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00827-6

Don't know where the numbers come from, but the amount of tests per million people is interesting. If accurate, Australia should exhibit a similar development of deaths vs. confirmed infected as Germany.

Doubt it. Germany has several times the population, so even if the tests/million is higher, the number of people available to be infected is smaller. Especially if you factor in the much higher population density in Germany. Australia is BIG.

[Mr. Scram]

That would also explain what appears to be patients getting reinfected shortly after seeming to have recovered, even though experts consider that highly unlikely. (Testing errors, of course, can also explain it.)

As far as I understand many of those cases occurred in China where people stuffed themselves full of suppressants, appeared to recover and went about their business and crashed again later. This may have triggered the instituted ban on suppressants.

[nctnico]

Meanwhile it seems there is a propaganda war going on in Italy between Cuba, China, Russia and the US about who can deliver the most support. 
Ofcourse there is a lot of chest beating going on while in reality France has delivered more face masks to Italy compared to Cuba, China and Russia.

[Electro Detective]

Many of us are from crippled political systems where the proper response comes way too late, and with way more difficulties than it should.

Actually, from the first case traced back to 12.1 to the general mass to realize sh!t happened, it took us a good 7 weeks. Things started to smell fishy on around 1.20 and quickly escalated to full lock down of Wuhan and prepared lock down of many other cities. Until all measures were taken, it took us at least 8 good weeks to respond.

The second wave, imported cases, started to show at least a month ago, and just yesterday China closed its boarder.

So it seems we made the same mistake on wasting time. This is a delay thing. As we are seeing, Italy, then some other EU countries, then the US, are using a lot of emergency laws to make things happen now, and more countries will certainly jump on the same wagon.

World leaders are alike. They tend to cover it up, try to ride it out, until things go wrong and they go berserk and declare a full scale war against it.

You are right. But some governments are also infused with a mixture of with foolishness and stupidity, as well.

This virus fiasco in Australia could have been avoided with agile and proactive government. Ours allowed several planeloads of travellers from Wuhan out onto the streets after the virus was already out of control in Wuhan.
Then we have the Ruby Princess fiasco where NSW Health allowed 2,700 off the cruise ship just a couple of weeks ago. Today there are hundreds infected from this ship.
The NSW Health hypocrite is beating his chest saying anyone caught breaking the rules would be fined. He should be put under arrest.

"some governments" ??!   


"Today there are hundreds infected from this ship." 
so it wasn't bali belly from gorging 24/7  on reheated 'all you can eat'  ship food ?   

[BravoV]

Meanwhile it seems there is a propaganda war going on in Italy between Cuba, China, Russia and the US about who can deliver the most support. 
Ofcourse there is a lot of chest beating going on while in reality France has delivered more face masks to Italy compared to Cuba, China and Russia.

Really do not understand why are you so agitated about this ? 

Beside, these are for humanity, the more aids or helps to Italy, the merrier right ?

Cuba, China and Russia are so far away from Italy, all logistics and personnels need to be air transported, while France is just a neighboring to Italy across land border, how hard is that to imagine this ?

Besides, just masks ? How about other medical supplies and the most important and valued aid, medical teams ?

Politically, these damn communist countries that you despise, while doing their chess pounding which imo they deserved it, they are also doing you a favor in disguised, which is sending a clear message to the so called brotherhood of Euro countries  , that among brothers should help each other "more" than strangers/adversaries that live far-far away across the globe.

Remember, Italy at earlier period was ignored and abandoned after begged and cried for help and aid to the Euro countries, and your beloved country Dutch is among those who explicitly denied to help, even to send just medical supplies, let alone "human" medical teams.

Kids these days. 

[BrianHG]

3Blue1Brown on how to simulate an epidemic: (Mar 27th)

[rf-loop]

Many of us are from crippled political systems where the proper response comes way too late, and with way more difficulties than it should.

The second wave, imported cases, started to show at least a month ago, and just yesterday China closed its boarder.

So it seems we made the same mistake on wasting time.

Imo not. 
I have tracked lot of data here in China when I have been whole self quarantine and now partially self quarantined over 2 months and also some other knowledge about this situation
It looks like there is NOT second wave started at all inside mainland China.
Yes, statistics looks like show it but it is, it need look bit more carefully. (Yes I also follow my nationality country Finland and some other European newspapers and some other public media and seen lot of fake news - some times downright shameful)

If look some public  statistics, example https://news.ifeng.com/c/special/7tPlDSzDgVk
It looks like there is new wave starting (attached image).



If look more carefully what is inside this...
There in graph (red) is all inside whole China including Taiwan, HK and Macao. and including also COVID-19 imported cases from outside (mainly some chinese peoples returning back to china from epidemic area.)
All these goes to controlled quarantine/isolation before can enter inside. If not sick, after 14 days and tests they are free to go, and sick peoples goes to isolation and as long they are positive they stay inside controlled isolation. Previously there was also foreign peoples coming to work or other purposes via quarantine etc but some days ago this road is closed. If some foreigner have already visa or residence permit and he is outside, no way to come in now. Of course there is some very special cases but lets not count these.)

Problem is that most foreign media look only these statistics without looking inside data.

If we take Taiwan, HK, Macao out from this trend and overseas income to mainland China there is not  any sign about second wave. (very roughly my blue line)

But it need very perfect and careful work to keep this situation.
Now after Hubei area is nearly opened and also Wuhan it need really  carefully detect every possible new case and trace all possibly infected with this case. Yes, China can do it.
If look Hubei what is not included in this graph. Last week Hubei area do not have any new cases, and if look two week only total 2 new cases.  And situation is very different if look foreign countries. China can track peoples and most other countries can not. This have been extremely big advantage in this COVID case. It have saved tens of thousand dead or even more.

Then if look diagnosed cases dead rate. Many news wonder example Germany low dead rate.
No one talk dead rate in China. If we count Hubei and whole other part of country separately (it need look separately because they are separated totally)

In whole Hubei, dead rate is 4.7%.
Wuhan alone, (inside Hubei area) original epicenter of COVID, there dead rate is 5.1% 
Hubei without Wuhan 3.6%
It can roughly say this whole Hubei area population is 60 M and some rough estimate about Wuhan city, 11M

Then whole rest of China 1368 M ppl
In this area hospitals have been in nearly normal load, not at all saturated. Also amount of tests have been well enough.

Dead rate is now 0.86% (Whole China without well isolated Hubei area. Note, Hubei isolation is just now changing and going to normal free but naturally under full control so that if any signs about new wave it can stop before it even start. )
And this is now in situation where most of sick peoples have died or survived and very small amount of new cases. Dead rate have delay. In China situation is nearly static now but in many other countries amount of COVID cases is fast rising phase and dead rate naturally rise delayed.

In Germany it looks now 0.85% (but COVID situation is fast moving there).  So why this is so big wonder in western media, in China this is normal rate from confirmed cases.  Is it so that Germany is only country who follow WHO test recommendations after WHO was learned its power in China. (Yes also Singapore and S-Korea looks like do enough tests for detect and track the chains of infections for stop them.)

[tautech]

rf-loop, good to hear you are safe and well still in China. We have not spoken lately as I knew you would be cooped up safely. 
Another week has been added to the NZ lockdown and we have just 1 dead and some 650+ currently infected. 80 odd recovered.
Infections have slowed a little but it is too soon to say it is a trend and luckily most infections are related to returning travellers and not in the general community.

Stay safe friend.