Covid 19 virus

[not1xor1]

light at the end of the tunnel (just in Italy at the moment) ?

luckily my forecast regarding Italy (total cases: 67-68k, deaths:  6.3-6.4k) was pessimistic

we are at 64k cases and 6.1k deaths (exact figures: 63'927 and 6'077)

for two consecutive days amount of new deaths has been lower than the previous day and new case increase as percentage of previous count is getting lower and lower

let's hope the next days will confirm the trend and that the rest of the world will asap experience a similar trend

[SiliconWizard]

https://www.caducee.net/actualite-medicale/14792/un-collectif-de-professionnels-de-sante-saisit-la-cour-de-justice-de-la-republique-contre-agnes-buzyn-et-edouard-philippe.html

Here, people are rather hot. Three days ago , have been detained a man for threating to  1 Minister Pedro Sanchez( alias:"Falconetti") by the covid management.

https://translate.google.es/translate?hl=es&sl=es&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.europapress.es%2Fmurcia%2Fnoticia-detenido-joven-difundir-video-amenazas-pedro-sanchez-gestion-crisis-coronavirus-20200320115932.html

After the quarantine, maybe could have a popular  uprising.

Yeah. Difference here is that this is a collective of about 600 physicians, not just a random guy on Youtube...

[SilverSolder]

We know which is the destine of the elder people, die like dogs.

https://translate.google.es/translate?hl=es&sl=es&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.elconfidencial.com%2Fespana%2F2020-03-23%2Fmilitares-descubren-cadaveres-junto-a-residentes-de-centros-de-ancianos_2513372%2F

I read that in Germany youngsters organize so-called corona-party and cough on elders... is that true or yet another exaggeration?

If true, it would be a good reason to carry a revolver....   -   it probably isn't true, or a one-off if true.

[thinkfat]

We know which is the destine of the elder people, die like dogs.

https://translate.google.es/translate?hl=es&sl=es&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.elconfidencial.com%2Fespana%2F2020-03-23%2Fmilitares-descubren-cadaveres-junto-a-residentes-de-centros-de-ancianos_2513372%2F

I read that in Germany youngsters organize so-called corona-party and cough on elders... is that true or yet another exaggeration?

Yes, the "Corona Parties" have been happening, and I've also heard some stories of idiot pranksters coughing on elderly people and shouting "Corona, Corona". Crisis brings out the best and the worst of people at the same time.

Not sure to which extent the parties are still happening, but people are getting increasingly scared with the numbers reported by RKI and others. Since the weekend, groups of more than two are prohibited outside, with core families (parents + children) counting as one person (they share the same germs anyway). Note that this is not a lock-down yet, we're trying hard to prevent it. Public transport is still on and we can go outside to take a walk or to the grocery store, but are held to keep a distance. I went for a walk with my two kids today and as far as I can say, people are keeping discipline (the small sample I encountered at least did). Still, I live in a low-density area. I have no idea how it looks in the big cities.

[SiliconWizard]

I wonder whether the Corona Extra will have to change names when the crisis is over...

[thinkfat]

let's hope the next days will confirm the trend and that the rest of the world will asap experience a similar trend

I hope so, too. I watching the new cases reported for China. I hope the second wave is not already starting there.

[-gb-]

Update to the Masks:

A Germnan Podcast with virologist Mr. Drosten discussed the Topic at series 19 of the Podcast from today: https://www.ndr.de/nachrichten/info/podcast4684.html
Transcription will appear here during the next hours https://www.ndr.de/nachrichten/info/Coronavirus-Update-Die-Podcast-Folgen-als-Skript,podcastcoronavirus102.html


The short summary is:

Yes, we should all wear masks, but NOT for selfprotection, but to protect everyone around us if we were infected. But: We should wear selfmade masks, because the good masks, suitable for selfprotection are now needed by the doctors.

The reason is exactly to protect others if you are infected, because you can be infected and spreading the virus without having any sympthoms and without knowing.

[SilverSolder]

I wonder whether the Corona Extra will have to change names when the crisis is over...

I hope not! 

It is actually a very good beer with a slice of lime, on a hot day, working on a classic car under a shade tree...   

[thinkfat]

I wonder whether the Corona Extra will have to change names when the crisis is over...

I hope not! 

It is actually a very good beer with a slice of lime, on a hot day, working on a classic car under a shade tree...

The depends on whether they're still around when this is over. If yes, then they'll soar. Everyone will want to have one to celebrate their "victory".

[Nominal Animal]

Yes, we should all wear masks, but NOT for selfprotection, but to protect everyone around us if we were infected. But: We should wear selfmade masks, because the good masks, suitable for selfprotection are now needed by the doctors.

Exactly.  Even something as simple as a winter scarf (the thick woolly kind, that will trap moisture and droplets in exhalations) will help a lot, for those who dislike the idea of wearing a mask.

[Bud]

Seen reports from UK researches today that in 30% cases people reported loss of smell and loss of taste. They are looking now whether to accept this as an early warning for even non-symptomatic people and add to self-isolation rules.

[thinkfat]

Heh, I've heard another funny story recently. Take it with a pint of salt, though, it's about the toilet paper rush. The source not a scientific paper or anything, just two guys in quarantine in Puerto Rico, one of them has Crohn's disease and is on Humira, and consequently he's a bit obsessed with the topic. They're photographers, they cannot go out and do their job right now so they decided to run a video journal of things happening all around USA and the world with respect to Covid-19. Here's the youtube channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCnvgtzmvlb6d58d9BbOKuMA

The story goes: Supposedly, there's been a run on toilet paper in China as well, before or around the time where the outbreak started. And as it happens, in about 20% of cases, SARS-CoV-2 causes diarrhea. So the guy theorized, when the outbreak started, a lot of people were in dire need of massive amounts of toilet paper, while others were watching and thinking, "what do they know that we don't?" and started hoarding. Now, is this what started the toilet paper run the US? It happened in Germany, too, but I cannot remember anyone mentioning a massive wave of diarrhea that could be responsible Over here, the shit hasn't hit the fan yet. It's still on its way

[-gb-]

Even something as simple as a winter scarf (the thick woolly kind, that will trap moisture and droplets in exhalations) will help a lot, for those who dislike the idea of wearing a mask.

Yes, this is also said in the linked podcast.

And simple masks from paper or cloth can be reused. clothmasks can be washed at 60°C and papermasks can be put in the kitchenoven at some temperature which is not too low, but not burning the paper.

[Mr. Scram]

A soggy mask can be a very effective vector though. People may also feel protected and act more casually and sloppy. This kind of behaviour has been shown in people wearing gloves.

[not1xor1]

I think in 12 hours we'll see (just first 3 countries after China):
country   cases     deaths
Italy       67-68k   6.3-6.4k
US         42-48k   500-550
Spain     31-34k   2.1-2.5k
of course I strongly hope to be wrong (i.e. that real figures will be much lower)

I was not much wrong (apart Italy - let's hope it is a trend rather than just ordinary fluctuations)
current (12 hours after forecast) figures are:
country   cases                deaths
Italy       64k (63,927)       6.1k (6,077)
US         42k (41,708)       573
Spain     33k (33,089)       2.2k (2,207)

I hope my weekly forecast about US will be wrong (of course I hope less cases and deaths than what I wrote)

[SilverSolder]

I think in 12 hours we'll see (just first 3 countries after China):
country   cases     deaths
Italy       67-68k   6.3-6.4k
US         42-48k   500-550
Spain     31-34k   2.1-2.5k
of course I strongly hope to be wrong (i.e. that real figures will be much lower)

I was not much wrong (apart Italy - let's hope it is a trend rather than just ordinary fluctuations)
current (12 hours after forecast) figures are:
country   cases                deaths
Italy       64k (63,927)       6.1k (6,077)
US         42k (41,708)       573
Spain     33k (33,089)       2.2k (2,207)

I hope my weekly forecast about US will be wrong (of course I hope less cases and deaths than what I wrote)

The US looks to me like it is accelerating, rather than flattening out...

[chris_leyson]

UK goes into shutdown from tonight. ALL non essential shops will close except for food, pharmacies, banks and post offices. Gatherings of more than two people are prohibited. Travel for food or medicinal supplies is permitted as well as travel for essential work. Essential work, apart from the obvious, is not yet defined.

[dietert1]

Dr. Drosten also mentioned that there may be a very simple explanation why some infected persons almost don't notice and other suffocate.
When the virus enters the body it needs time to spread and during that time the human body starts reacting, but it also needs time to produce virus killing antibodies.
So they assume that the immune response may be effective when the initial infection enters nose or mouth. If the initial infection happens inside the lungs (after taking a deep breath of virus aerosol), that person may be lost. Today on German TV they showed a 41 year old strong man who had been skiiing in Austria and is now close to death. My conclusion: Keep your mouth shut when others are close. A mask will have a similar effect.

In Germany about 1 of 1000 is infected, assuming a moderate factor two or three above the official numbers of those tested positive. So, when you meet 10 people chances are 1 : 100 that you are at risk. This risk is integrated over the next months and over all members of a family. So we should think a lot before meeting somebody else.

Regards, Dieter

[thinkfat]

Dr. Drosten also mentioned that there may be a very simple explanation why some infected persons almost don't notice and other suffocate.
When the virus enters the body it needs time to spread and during that time the human body starts reacting, but it also needs time to produce virus killing antibodies.
So they assume that the immune response may be effective when the initial infection enters nose or mouth. If the initial infection happens inside the lungs (after taking a deep breath of virus aerosol), that person may be lost. Today on German TV they showed a 41 year old strong man who had been skiiing in Austria and is now close to death. My conclusion: Keep your mouth shut when others are close. A mask will have a similar effect.

In Germany about 1 of 1000 is infected, assuming a moderate factor two or three above the official numbers of those tested positive. So, when you meet 10 people chances are 1 : 100 that you are at risk. This risk is integrated over the next months and over all members of a family. So we should think a lot before meeting somebody else.

Regards, Dieter

I've just finished listening to that episode. This must have escaped my attention.

[SiliconWizard]

My conclusion: Keep your mouth shut when others are close. A mask will have a similar effect.

Yeah, the nose is a good barrier (at least much better) compared to directly breathing through the mouth. Some people have more of a habit of breathing through the mouth at least partly, usually not consciously.

Of course, if someone's already got a cold with a clogged nose, they will tend to breath through the mouth almost exclusively, which I guess would put them even more at risk.

[Electro Detective]

Seen reports from UK researches today that in 30% cases people reported loss of smell and loss of taste.
They are looking now whether to accept this as an early warning for even non-symptomatic people and add to self-isolation rules.

No reason for alarm or concern,
people with 'loss of smell and loss of taste' have been the the junk food industry's best customers for decades     

[SiliconWizard]

Seen reports from UK researches today that in 30% cases people reported loss of smell and loss of taste.
They are looking now whether to accept this as an early warning for even non-symptomatic people and add to self-isolation rules.

No reason for alarm or concern,
people with 'loss of smell and loss of taste' have been the the junk food industry's best customers for decades 

Maybe junk food is a virus.

[VK3DRB]

We know which is the destine of the elder people, die like dogs.

https://translate.google.es/translate?hl=es&sl=es&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.elconfidencial.com%2Fespana%2F2020-03-23%2Fmilitares-descubren-cadaveres-junto-a-residentes-de-centros-de-ancianos_2513372%2F

I read that in Germany youngsters organize so-called corona-party and cough on elders... is that true or yet another exaggeration?

Yes, the "Corona Parties" have been happening, and I've also heard some stories of idiot pranksters coughing on elderly people and shouting "Corona, Corona". Crisis brings out the best and the worst of people at the same time...

The crisis also brings out the clowns.

I heard someone sing a parody of "My Sharona" by The Knack called "My Corona", heard on UHF CB. It might have been a truck driver on the freeway delivering toilet paper for all I know, but whoever it was he was hilarious .

[Bud]

Dr. Thomas Cowan, MD, found the source of this virus ( well, other ones too)

https://www.bitchute.com/video/XV4nqpXf4s71/

(Skip to 3:30)

[drussell]

As much as I hate to reply to myself....

Edit: Found the actual quote:

Chinese Red Cross Vice President Sun Shuopeng warned Italians that they were risking lives by not adhering to the novel coronavirus lockdown. He made the comments after visiting Milan in the hardest-hit region of Italy, which has recorded 41,035 cases and 3,405 deaths. “Here in Milan, the hardest-hit area by COVID-19, the lockdown measures are very lax,” the veteran of the Wuhan epidemic fight said Thursday. “I can see public transport is still running, people are still moving around, having gatherings in hotels and they are not wearing masks.” Sun warned that the resistance to the lockdown will prove deadly. “I don’t know what people here are thinking. We really have to stop our usual economic activities and our usual human interactions. We have to stay at home and make every effort to save lives. It is worth putting every cost we have into saving lives.”

I happened across a clip that includes the original footage I had seen...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gs3wR39tI3Q&feature=youtu.be&t=35