Covid 19 virus

[SiliconWizard]

If anything, this should teach us how fragile our whole society has become. Seeing how one small virus can wreak havoc, imagine anything worse than this (which is not at all unlikely)?

Sure we can take some temporary measures to go through this, but what in the long run? Many of us are saying we are unprepared, which is true. But what exactly being fully prepared would entail?

Does anyone here think (as I am unfortunately envisioning) that over time (if not this time, next time...) it may drastically change the way we all live our daily lives? To a point where it might really not be fun? Dunno. Possibly we'll forget about it all soon enough, but when it happens again, that's gonna be a different story.

[drussell]

it is hard to realize how quickly this gets out of control

in 3-4 days US is likely to become the first country in the world for no. of cases
I think on next Sunday it will get 200-300 thousands cases and around 3-4 thousands deaths
in 2 weeks deaths might probably exceed 10'000 and might even get close to 20'000

  I wish that I could say that you're wrong.  I thought that the large number of new cases being reported might be due to previously untested individuals that they were just  getting around to testing but even after more than a week of large scale testing, the new case number is staying high so most of them probably really are newly infected individuals.

I would argue that the USA has not even begun what I would call "large scale testing."  The best data I can find shows that they had only tested 100,000 people by Friday, in total, across the entire country so far!  That is what, about a 15-20% positive rate after testing only about one in every 3300 of the population?  They haven't really even begun to test everyone that should be tested, those with possible symptoms or known exposure.  There are likely hundreds of thousands more people in the US infected already by this point, and sadly the stated control method is to play "Whack-A-Mole."   

Here in the province of Alberta alone (population about 4 million), we had tested 20,360 people by Friday.  That is one test for every 215 people.  Every person who has possible symptoms or has been known to be exposed has been tested.  There are no fees, no hoops to jump through, no backlogs.  If someone should be tested, they are tested.  To Friday, we had found only 195 cases province-wide, so less than 1% of those tested came back with a positive result.

Yet, even with apparently relatively low transmission here, we are taking no chances.  All bars & pubs have been closed, operating licenses suspended.  The staff have all be laid off and most will unfortunately never re-open as they will never be able to weather even a month or two of closure.  Restaurants are allowed to do take-out / delivery, with the option to open a dining room at up to half capacity, maximum 50 people, though few are choosing to.

Everyone else is supposed to stay home except for essential businesses.  Traffic is eerily light, even compared to the lightest, slowest summer traffic when everyone is away on vacation.  There is no "rush hour" commute.  It was nice yesterday, though, to see lots of people out for a walk now that spring weather is arriving, they're just being very cognizant and keeping their distance from others.  I guess we're pretty lucky here in Canada, our average population density doesn't even register on the sparse-o-meter, and many cities, like here in Calgary, are extremely "urban-sprawled" for the population size. 

Trying to control this in New York, especially leaving the transit system running?  Good luck. 

Thanks to the irresponsible students and others that continue to party like it's 1999 this is is going to sweep through the US like a wildfire.

Sadly, it looks like it already has, and it looks like the response (both in the knowing-it's-coming phase and the OMG-it's-here phase) in the US has been, and continues to be, by far the worst in the world overall.  It's like a massive wreck in slow motion that you can't look away from.  It is unfortunately likely to be very bad.

Many have wished for the US to be "knocked down a peg or two" for many years, but I don't think anyone wanted to see a pandemic sweep through with mass deaths, etc. to wake them up.

So sad.

Try to stay healthy, everyone!

[drussell]

If anything, this should teach us how fragile our whole society has become. Seeing how one small virus can wreak havoc, imagine anything worse than this (which is not at all unlikely)?

Sure we can take some temporary measures to go through this, but what in the long run? Many of us are saying we are unprepared, which is true. But what exactly being fully prepared would entail?

Good question.

Really, the saddest part for me was about 3 weeks ago when the spread started in Italy so forcefully, where I suddenly realized how trivial it would be for any major government or reasonably-well funded private entity to engineer and release a targeted virus to essentially wipe out some genetically related group.   

[engrguy42]

drussel, have you actually looked at the WHO data? I'm not sure where you get that the US is, by far, in the worst shape in the world??

As of yesterday Italy has had a total of 4,032 deaths, China 3261, Iran 1433, and US 201.

Now you're certainly free to wave your hands and predict whatever you want for the future, but since nobody has a clue what will happen I'm not sure it's helpful to stir the pot.

[nctnico]

If anything, this should teach us how fragile our whole society has become. Seeing how one small virus can wreak havoc, imagine anything worse than this (which is not at all unlikely)?

Actually I think society is better equiped than ever. Imagine the Corona outbreak happened 20 years ago with the internet still in it's infancy? It is our modern communication systems which keep things going right now. All the data to stop the outbreak is shared quickly without risk of actually spreading the infection. And the Corona virus isn't the first outbreak ever.

[Bud]

Wow! And I thought Canadian Health Authority representative was an idiot when he said "when you see Chinese people on the strret  shake their hand"

https://www.redstate.com/nick-arama/2020/03/20/italian-virologist-italys-response-was-slow-to-stopisolate-people-coming-from-china-because-fear-of-being-called-racist

[drussell]

drussel, have you actually looked at the WHO data?

I have been following all the raw data since December and doing my own analysis, yes.

I'm not sure where you get that the US is, by far, in the worst shape in the world??

I mean worst shape as far as preparedness.

It appears that the US is only just beginning to see the tip of the infection iceberg and seems totally ill-equipped to handle it.  There seems to be a lack of federal leadership, leaving more local officials without proper support and guidance.  The medical system does not appear poised to be able to handle the influx that appears to be coming, with no real plans on how to try to improve the situation.  There are millions and millions of people who cannot even seek medical care, even if they're actually carrying the virus.

I would love to be wrong, but I fear the US will be the hardest hit within a few weeks.

As of yesterday Italy has had a total of 4,032 deaths, China 3261, Iran 1433, and US 201.

Now you're certainly free to wave your hands and predict whatever you want for the future, but since nobody has a clue what will happen I'm not sure it's helpful to stir the pot.

We do have a clue, though.  We can make educated suppositions based on the available evidence from previous cases and responses worldwide.  Wait about two weeks (the median number of days from symptoms to death is about 14 days) and compare the number of deaths once more of the infected Americans start to die.

Excerpt from another forum post:

The data from the following preliminary studies agrees with my own empirical evidence and analysis graphs (the trends in recovered and deaths track closely) which you probably would dismiss anyway since I'm just some guy on the internet.

Instead, here are some data points from actual published papers by real doctors and scientists....

The Wang et al study (an admittedly small study of only 138 cases) suggests:
The median durations from first symptoms to dyspnea, hospital admission, and ARDS were 5 days (interquartile range 1-10), 7 days (IQR, 4-8), and 8 days (IQR, 6-12), respectively
The median time from onset of symptoms to ICU admission (not just hospital admission) is 10 days (IQR 6-12)
For those discharged from hospital, the hospital stay was a median of 10 days with an IQR of 7-14 (vs 12 days median 12.8 mean duration in the Guan study of 1099 cases, so reasonably close agreement on hospital stay to discharge)

The earlier CNHC study (preliminary data from 17 early cases) suggests that the median days from first symptom to death were 14 (range 6-41) days, and tended to be shorter among people of 70 year old or above (11.5 [range 6-19] days) than those with ages below 70 year old (20 [range 10-41] days

The Lan study where they were looking to see how long patients still tested positive after meeting the criteria for hospital release or lifting of quarantine, the patients were initially considered "recovered" after 12-32 days, though it does not specify a median or IQR.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2761044?guestAccessKey=f61bd430-07d8-4b86-a749-bec05bfffb65
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2002032
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/jmv.25689?af=R
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762452

[engrguy42]

drussel, your response is nothing more than "seems to be" and "appears to be".

And clearly you've stated an anti-US bias to have the US "knocked down a peg or two", so I think it's pretty shameful to be trying to find whatever numbers you can find to prove a totally nebulous point about "preparedness" that you obviously want to believe.

As I posted earlier, total confirmed cases in the US is around 20k. If we assume a 3% death rate that's an additional 600 deaths to add to the present 200.

The only thing we can predict with any intelligence is that we can expect to have 800 total deaths in the short term, and hope that the strong restrictions that have been put into place in the populous areas of the US will have an impact soon. The rest is just hand waving speculation.

   

[iMo]

If anything, this should teach us how fragile our whole society has become. Seeing how one small virus can wreak havoc, imagine anything worse than this (which is not at all unlikely)?

Actually I think society is better equiped than ever. Imagine the Corona outbreak happened 20 years ago with the internet still in it's infancy? It is our modern communication systems which keep things going right now. All the data to stop the outbreak is shared quickly without risk of actually spreading the infection. And the Corona virus isn't the first outbreak ever.

If this happened 40y back you would hardly notice it as a pandemic of this scale. A bit stronger seasonal flu. More fatalities would be "averaged" in the yearly flu statistics..

For example China 40y back - even the number of infected and fatalities would had been 100x higher than today nobody would know outside China..

Italy or Spain 40y back - that would be an epidemic, medialized in "in the West" as "a strong wave of flu hitting Europe", and the Eastern Bloc - while hiding their real numbers as their "state secrecy" - happily finger pointing the "low level of healthcare in the West".

[drussell]

drussel, your response is nothing more than "seems to be" and "appears to be".

Obviously, only time will tell.

And clearly you've stated an anti-US bias to have the US "knocked down a peg or two", so I think it's pretty shameful to be trying to find whatever numbers you can find to prove a totally nebulous point about "preparedness" that you obviously want to believe.

Why do you assume I have an anti-US bias because I point out the fact that many people worldwide would like to see the US "knocked down a peg?"  The same sentiment exists towards the UK from the EU over Brexit.  Does that somehow make me anti-UK too?     (My point was that even some vehement US-hater, which I assure you I am NOT, would not wish this situation on anyone...)

As I posted earlier, total confirmed cases in the US is around 20k. If we assume a 3% death rate that's an additional 600 deaths to add to the present 200.

Actually, the US confirmed cases are close to 40,000 now, with almost 14,000 added so far today.

The only thing we can predict with any intelligence is that we can expect to have 800 total deaths in the short term, and hope that the strong restrictions that have been put into place in the populous areas of the US will have an impact soon. The rest is just hand waving speculation.

I believe that based on the experience of other countries, we can predict that the measures you speak of are too lax and have been implemented too slowly in many areas.  I hope I am wrong.

You believe otherwise, and I hope you are right!

Only time will tell.

[vodka]

it is hard to realize how quickly this gets out of control

in 3-4 days US is likely to become the first country in the world for no. of cases
I think on next Sunday it will get 200-300 thousands cases and around 3-4 thousands deaths
in 2 weeks deaths might probably exceed 10'000 and might even get close to 20'000

  I wish that I could say that you're wrong.  I thought that the large number of new cases being reported might be due to previously untested individuals that they were just  getting around to testing but even after more than a week of large scale testing, the new case number is staying high so most of them probably really are newly infected individuals.

I would argue that the USA has not even begun what I would call "large scale testing."  The best data I can find shows that they had only tested 100,000 people by Friday, in total, across the entire country so far!  That is what, about a 15-20% positive rate after testing only about one in every 3300 of the population?  They haven't really even begun to test everyone that should be tested, those with possible symptoms or known exposure.  There are likely hundreds of thousands more people in the US infected already by this point, and sadly the stated control method is to play "Whack-A-Mole."   

Like many countries in Europe, because they haven't sufficent test for everyone.

[engrguy42]

drussel, where do you get your numbers from? CDC doesn't report on weekends, and WHO's data is from Friday the 20th. And both of those agree on a figure of 15k.

I think it's important to choose a single and arguably reliable source rather than grabbing data from whatever pops up. I may be wrong, but in the US I would assume the final authority is the Centers for Disease Control (CDC), and I assume they forward that to WHO as official data, which is why WHO data seems to lag 1 day behind. 

[Sredni]

If this happened 40y back you would hardly notice it as a pandemic of this scale. A bit stronger seasonal flu. More fatalities would be "averaged" in the yearly flu statistics..

Italy or Spain 40y back - that would be an epidemic, medialized in "in the West" as "a strong wave of flu hitting Europe",

You have got to be kidding.
Are you this blind?

Do you have any idea of what is going on in Italy and Spain right now?

The hospitals of entire regions are saturated.
Doctors and nurses are getting infected and are dying.
The army had to carry away the coffins for incineration to take place in other provinces.

And you are still talking about a "strong flu"?

[not1xor1]

now I do not believe any longer to those newspaper 
so I ask: does anybody know if this is true:

Coronavirus, the Tyrolean village that infected half of Europe
Since February, more than a thousand northern European tourists have become infected in Ischgl. But only now the village has been declared a red zone. «Delays not to compromise the ski season»

full article translated from Italian

[vodka]

If anything, this should teach us how fragile our whole society has become. Seeing how one small virus can wreak havoc, imagine anything worse than this (which is not at all unlikely)?

Actually I think society is better equiped than ever. Imagine the Corona outbreak happened 20 years ago with the internet still in it's infancy? It is our modern communication systems which keep things going right now. All the data to stop the outbreak is shared quickly without risk of actually spreading the infection. And the Corona virus isn't the first outbreak ever.

If this happened 40y back you would hardly notice it as a pandemic of this scale. A bit stronger seasonal flu. More fatalities would be "averaged" in the yearly flu statistics..

For example China 40y back - even the number of infected and fatalities would had been 100x higher than today nobody would know outside China..

Italy or Spain 40y back - that would be an epidemic, medialized in "in the West" as "a strong wave of flu hitting Europe", and the Eastern Bloc - while hiding the real numbers there - happily finger pointing the "low level of healthcare in the West".

40 years ago , an image  is best than 1000 words. This would be in the first page of the newspaper

https://youtu.be/4aAo_-b9XuA

[Cerebus]

If this happened 40y back you would hardly notice it as a pandemic of this scale. A bit stronger seasonal flu. More fatalities would be "averaged" in the yearly flu statistics..

Italy or Spain 40y back - that would be an epidemic, medialized in "in the West" as "a strong wave of flu hitting Europe",

You have got to be kidding.
Are you this blind?

Do you have any idea of what is going on in Italy and Spain right now?

The hospitals of entire regions are saturated.
Doctors and nurses are getting infected and are dying.
The army had to carry away the coffins for incineration to take place in other provinces.

And you are still talking about a "strong flu"?

Ease up on him, his choice of avatar ought to suggest that he's "got a head full of rocks" and handle "In My Opinion" that he has difficulties with objective facts. We have to be patient with the disadvantaged. 

[not1xor1]

here is another case... this time is Italian madness

On February 24, a few days after the beginning of the epidemic, the direction of the "Palazzolo-Don Gnocchi Institute", a piece of history of health and care in Milan, convenes a plenary meeting for workers. Three hundred doctors, nurses and operators massed in a room, some remain outside because they want to understand. They all expect a single message: more than 700 patients are hosted at the "Don Gnocchi", almost all elderly, sick and frail, and therefore the workers imagine that the structure will be "armored" to prevent the coronavirus from entering the wards, because everyone is they realize that if this happened it would be a massacre (the one that took place and Corriere has already told about the rest homes in Mediglia, Affori, or the «Virgilio Ferrari» municipal at Corvetto). Instead, the opposite happens: the management forbids all staff to wear masks, "so as not to create panic and pressure on patients and relatives", with veiled threats of disciplinary appeal for those who will use protections. "It seems incredible - many nurses say today, and their messages are converging - but they have expressly" forbidden "us to protect our patients, and we too".

translated Italian article

[nctnico]

If anything, this should teach us how fragile our whole society has become. Seeing how one small virus can wreak havoc, imagine anything worse than this (which is not at all unlikely)?

Actually I think society is better equiped than ever. Imagine the Corona outbreak happened 20 years ago with the internet still in it's infancy? It is our modern communication systems which keep things going right now. All the data to stop the outbreak is shared quickly without risk of actually spreading the infection. And the Corona virus isn't the first outbreak ever.

If this happened 40y back you would hardly notice it as a pandemic of this scale. A bit stronger seasonal flu. More fatalities would be "averaged" in the yearly flu statistics..

And no hospitals being completely overrun with patients as well? 
The western world would have been thrown back a lot economically due to having more manufacturing versus office jobs which can be done from home nowadays.

[iMo]

If anything, this should teach us how fragile our whole society has become. Seeing how one small virus can wreak havoc, imagine anything worse than this (which is not at all unlikely)?

Actually I think society is better equiped than ever. Imagine the Corona outbreak happened 20 years ago with the internet still in it's infancy? It is our modern communication systems which keep things going right now. All the data to stop the outbreak is shared quickly without risk of actually spreading the infection. And the Corona virus isn't the first outbreak ever.

If this happened 40y back you would hardly notice it as a pandemic of this scale. A bit stronger seasonal flu. More fatalities would be "averaged" in the yearly flu statistics..

And no hospitals being completely overrun with patients as well? 
The western world would have been thrown back a lot. Also due to having more manufacturing versus office jobs which can be done from home nowadays.

Sure, the hospitals will be massively overrun in 1980.
No DNA/RNA technology at that time.
No advanced analytical methods and equipment at that time.
No pneumonia/flu test at that time.
No flu vaccination at that time.
No internet at that time.
No high-tech ventilators at that time.
No CT scans and MRI at that time.
No special antibiotics to cope with secondary infections at that time.
No quality respirators FFP2-3 grade at that time.
Fixed line telephones, sometimes a Fax.
No personal computers at that time.
Cold War [for GenZ and up - "Cold War" does not mean to "fight against  commond cold"]..

[Cerebus]

Sure, the hospitals will be massively overrun in 1980.
No DNA/RNA technology at that time.     wrong
No advanced analytical methods and equipment at that time.      wrong first ELISA test 1971, HPLC, MS-GC, PAGE all common laboratory equipment in 1980
No pneumonia/flu test at that time.     wrong
No flu vaccination at that time.     wrong - flu vaccines were available in the 1940s!
No internet at that time.      right
No high-tech ventilators at that time.      wrong
No CT scans and MRI at that time.     wrong - first commercial CAT scanners 1972, first commercial MRI scanner 1980
No special antibiotics to cope with secondary infections at that time.      wrong
No quality respirators FFP2-3 grade at that time.      wrong
Fixed line telephones, sometimes a Fax.      right
No personal computers at that time.      wrong
Cold War [for GenZ and up - "Cold War" does not mean to "fight against  commond cold"]..      right

3 out of 12. You have failed your history of technology exam.

[not1xor1]

it is hard to realize how quickly this gets out of control

in 3-4 days US is likely to become the first country in the world for no. of cases
I think on next Sunday it will get 200-300 thousands cases and around 3-4 thousands deaths
in 2 weeks deaths might probably exceed 10'000 and might even get close to 20'000

Death toll could still look like completely different in US vs Italy.

Italy has probably half million or more mild cases not tested whereas US testing is bit more up to date currently.
Age demographics has also huge difference for outcome: spread the virus to people mostly under 60 vs infect also everyone over 70.

mortality rate is not the same in all parts of Italy... somewhere it is almost 10%, elsewhere it is less than 1%
there are lots of factors to take into account and now it is too soon to analyze the data

in any case increase is slowing down (as percentage of previous cases)
today we had less new cases and less new deaths than yesterday
of course just one piece of data is not a trend

[Zero999]

Sure, the hospitals will be massively overrun in 1980.
No DNA/RNA technology at that time.     wrong
No advanced analytical methods and equipment at that time.      wrong first ELISA test 1971, HPLC, MS-GC, PAGE all common laboratory equipment in 1980
No pneumonia/flu test at that time.     wrong
No flu vaccination at that time.     wrong - flu vaccines were available in the 1940s!
No internet at that time.      right
No high-tech ventilators at that time.      wrong
No CT scans and MRI at that time.     wrong - first commercial CAT scanners 1972, first commercial MRI scanner 1980
No special antibiotics to cope with secondary infections at that time.      wrong
No quality respirators FFP2-3 grade at that time.      wrong
Fixed line telephones, sometimes a Fax.      right
No personal computers at that time.      wrong
Cold War [for GenZ and up - "Cold War" does not mean to "fight against  commond cold"]..      right

3 out of 12. You have failed your history of technology exam.

To be fair, whilst most of what he said was wrong, there are grains of truth here and there. For example, MRI scanners might have been on the market in 1980, but most hospitals wouldn't have had one back then, DNA sequencing was in its infancy, vaccines took much longer to develop, than they do today and personal computers were expensive and uncommon; I wasn't born until 1982 and I remember receptionists using typewriters, when I was a child: my mum used to have one and I had a toy one.

[not1xor1]

• Are they [facemasks] effective? Of course they are and even more so when grading goes up. There is a reason why they protect you from asbestos fibers or toxic dust. So they will protect your from infected particles or droplets.

The effectiveness of face-masks is nothing like as simple as you make it sound.  What you say is not untrue but it is incomplete.  FFP face-masks filter particles measured in micro-meters.  The covid virus is measured in nano-meters.[/list]

AFAIK coronavirus diameter is 80-160 nm and FFP3 mask do filter fine particulate matter and do reduce the viral load
for that purpose (viral load reduction) FFP2 face-mask are considered effective too

[not1xor1]

I'd take Siwastajas political views with a pinch.. no with a pint of salt. 
Lots of things could have been done differently with a hindsight but so far the response in here hasn't been any worse than most of the countries with the Korea and Singapore being notable differences. China maybe also.

yes... we all have more or less bias...
I am much more biased than I'd like
sometimes I realize that and modify my posts 
other times I'm so biased that saturate and my Vce goes down to 0nV 

[vad]

To be fair, whilst most of what he said was wrong, there are grains of truth here and there. For example, MRI scanners might have been on the market in 1980, but most hospitals wouldn't have had one back then,

Good old X-ray is equally capable in confirming pneumonia.