Covid 19 virus

[james_s]

The flu is very dangerous and potentially quite lethal, we have a safe, fairly effective, readily available and inexpensive vaccine and yet we have countless people too lazy to get vaccinated and others who actively refuse to be vaccinated.

As you're talking about the US, don't forget the people who can't get it for free but can't afford it - typical price in the US if you have to pay yourself $40. Multiply that by number of family members and that's a big chunk of cash for some people. So it's not just people who are "too lazy to get vaccinated and others who actively refuse to be vaccinated" as you characterise it.

Mine was something like $18, I paid out of pocket at Costco and didn't even try to see if my insurance would cover it. If you can't afford $18 for something that important then you should be eligible to get it for free.

That aside, there are loads of people for whom the cost is not an issue, they simply can't be bothered to get one, or they've bought into the anti-vax hogwash and refuse.

[james_s]

Based on figures here: 2019-2020 U.S. Flu Season: Preliminary Burden Estimates

The estimated case fatality ratio (all ages) for seasonal influenza in the USA in this year's flu season is between 0.04% and 0.15%. The estimated age weighted case fatality ratio for SARS-Covid-2 based on the Imperial College data is 1.23%. That's a 6.2 to 30.7 times higher case fatality ratio for SARS-Covid-2 than for this year's seasonal flu.

Given that there is no pre-existing community immunity to SARS-Covid-2 whereas there is for flu the absolute number of cases is going to be higher than for flu, for which the CDC estimate there where between 36 - 51 million cases this year (crudely 10 - 20% of the population). If SARS-Covid-2 was responsible for only as few cases of infection as flu has been in the US this year there would be between 442,800 - 627,300 Covid related deaths (compared to the estimate for flu this year of 22,000 - 55,000 deaths).

So anybody who still thinks this is only as bad as flu, and that unnecessary fuss is being made, think again.

What I think is that it is virtually irrelevant because we're so focused on reacting to the crisis that nobody is flying the plane and it's going to crash, making the rest of the issue moot. If the whole system comes crashing down people are going to be dying of all sorts of stuff because they won't have access to medical care. The number one priority HAS to be to keep the world running because everything else fully depends on that. Do you think Covid is just going to go away after a few weeks? What do we do when it pops up again? Do we shut everything down indefinitely until we're all unemployed and homeless?

[maginnovision]

The flu is very dangerous and potentially quite lethal, we have a safe, fairly effective, readily available and inexpensive vaccine and yet we have countless people too lazy to get vaccinated and others who actively refuse to be vaccinated.

As you're talking about the US, don't forget the people who can't get it for free but can't afford it - typical price in the US if you have to pay yourself $40. Multiply that by number of family members and that's a big chunk of cash for some people. So it's not just people who are "too lazy to get vaccinated and others who actively refuse to be vaccinated" as you characterise it.

Mine was something like $18, I paid out of pocket at Costco and didn't even try to see if my insurance would cover it. If you can't afford $18 for something that important then you should be eligible to get it for free.

That aside, there are loads of people for whom the cost is not an issue, they simply can't be bothered to get one, or they've bought into the anti-vax hogwash and refuse.

I've only had 1 job where they didn't bring people in to vaccinate everyone. I believe drug stores typically have no and low cost flu shot options. Insurance often covers flu shots. There are usually places where you can get it free when you live in moderate to large cities. The above "$40 being typical" is definitely not true.

[Mr. Scram]

Numbers? Sources?
Do you really believe this is made up?
The numbers in Italy come from the institutions there, namely the "Protezione Civile". You can read them on any 'Coronavirus counter', for example the one run by Johns Hopkins University. They match.
The "Eco di Bergamo" newspaper had ten pages of obituaries, when usually there is only one.
Does this tell you something about how silly is it to talk about the incidence of the number of tests on the CFR?
If the mortality was 10, 20 or 60 times less then EDIT: the current CFR and hence comparable to EDIT the flu you would not see that many deaths.
All the hospitals of Lombardy are running out of ICUs. And several dozens patients had already been offloaded to other regions.

Oh, I have read it. And I have already seen this before . There is always the odd virologist or odd epidemiologist who makes this kind of predictions. There were one or two in Italy as well, now they have retracted or are nowhere to be found. And they were considered highly esteemed professionals in their field.

Probably excellent doctors, a bit weak in math.
Have you read the comments? Someone there is asking where did he pull that number from.

Do you think you are original?
I've seen this going on in Italy, in Spain, in France, in UK and now in the US. It is almost unbelievable how similar the patter is, despite all the cultural differences.

The really sad part is that I do not need to convince you.
You will see for yourself.

Then, when you will try to warn people from other countries that this is not a statistical artifact, they will probably tell you "calm down, breathe". I hope you won't find the latter difficult.

Please avoid the false dilemma where people who aren't joining your panic are supposedly of the opinion this situation is made up. No one is saying nothing is going on. However, you keep using rousing and alarmist language yet do far have posted nothing more substantial than some casual US news coverage. I don't think there's much discussion to be had about that. Without a tangible understanding of what's going on we're definitely going under so we need to look, see and act.

[Cerebus]

The flu is very dangerous and potentially quite lethal, we have a safe, fairly effective, readily available and inexpensive vaccine and yet we have countless people too lazy to get vaccinated and others who actively refuse to be vaccinated.

As you're talking about the US, don't forget the people who can't get it for free but can't afford it - typical price in the US if you have to pay yourself $40. Multiply that by number of family members and that's a big chunk of cash for some people. So it's not just people who are "too lazy to get vaccinated and others who actively refuse to be vaccinated" as you characterise it.

Mine was something like $18, I paid out of pocket at Costco and didn't even try to see if my insurance would cover it. If you can't afford $18 for something that important then you should be eligible to get it for free.

That aside, there are loads of people for whom the cost is not an issue, they simply can't be bothered to get one, or they've bought into the anti-vax hogwash and refuse.

I've only had 1 job where they didn't bring people in to vaccinate everyone. I believe drug stores typically have no and low cost flu shot options. Insurance often covers flu shots. There are usually places where you can get it free when you live in moderate to large cities. The above "$40 being typical" is definitely not true.

For what it's worth the figures came from here Where to Get Free or the Cheapest Flu Shots (updated 2020) but the exact cost is irrelevant as I was taking issue with the "too lazy" or "too crazy" characterisation being made about people from the US by someone from the US when, as we all know, with high American health costs, access to vaccination can be a problem for some people. Just seemed unfair to that class of people.

[Mr. Scram]

Although it's a mainstream media piece the article linked gives some insights into why it could be that Italy is hit harder than South Korea.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/16/opinions/south-korea-italy-coronavirus-survivability-sepkowitz/index.html

[james_s]

Well the number of people I personally know who don't bother or actively refuse to get vaccinated suggests it is a very real problem. A good friend of mine with a 6 figure income and excellent health insurance has never had a flu shot because he insists it's all some kind of money grabbing conspiracy to make him sick. I've given up on discussing such things with him because I value our friendship over being right but his mindset is not rare.

The broader anti-vax movement has led to a resurgence of measles and other formerly nearly eradicated diseases and you can bet that if a Covid vaccine is developed there will be many thousands of people who refuse to get it or blow it off as an unnecessary waste of effort.

[VK3DRB]

Some things are normal. Indian scam merchants from the Microsoft Technical Help Department are still calling Australians daily in an attempt to commit fraud. Too bad we cannot kill these scammers with a virus.

With all the cash splashing going on over this virus, there will be scammers bleeding the system for all it is worth. Most governments cannot engineer a process quickly that is not full of holes. Most governments are reactive, no proactive. I can see scams, fiascoes and debacles on the horizon. This time it is going to be worse than the GFC cash splash, because the sums are bigger and the governments won't see the problems they have created before it is too late.

[Sredni]

Please avoid the false dilemma where people who aren't joining your panic are supposedly of the opinion this situation is made up. No one is saying nothing is going on. However, you keep using rousing and alarmist language

Telling someone his house is on fire is not panicking.
You need to see what is going on?
Don't you have Internet access? The data is public.

What do you expect, to be held by hand, report after report, paper after paper?
As I said, you will see for yourself.

[NiHaoMike]

Some things are normal. Indian scam merchants from the Microsoft Technical Help Department are still calling Australians daily in an attempt to commit fraud. Too bad we cannot kill these scammers with a virus.

With all the cash splashing going on over this virus, there will be scammers bleeding the system for all it is worth. Most governments cannot engineer a process quickly that is not full of holes. Most governments are reactive, no proactive. I can see scams, fiascoes and debacles on the horizon. This time it is going to be worse than the GFC cash splash, because the sums are bigger and the governments won't see the problems they have created before it is too late.

With many stuck at home, wouldn't it be a good use of time to feed the scammers junk data to waste their time?

[Mr. Scram]

Telling someone his house is on fire is not panicking.
You need to see what is going on?
Don't you have Internet access? The data is public.

What do you expect, to be held by hand, report after report, paper after paper?
As I said, you will see for yourself.

Considering you flat out refuse to post anything else than "see for yourself" I can't help but conclude you don't actually know what's going on. I understand that the changes and incessant torrents of news are scary. Looking carefully at what we actually know can make it less scary.

Admittedly the idea of yelling there's a fire and subsequently refusing to comment on what's on fire and where is amusing because of how absurd it is.

[james_s]

Please avoid the false dilemma where people who aren't joining your panic are supposedly of the opinion this situation is made up. No one is saying nothing is going on. However, you keep using rousing and alarmist language

Telling someone his house is on fire is not panicking.
You need to see what is going on?
Don't you have Internet access? The data is public.

What do you expect, to be held by hand, report after report, paper after paper?
As I said, you will see for yourself.

You're not informing someone that their house is on fire, you're running around in circles screaming that the sky is falling and accusing anyone who refuses to get caught up in your panic of thinking there's no problem at all.

What precisely are you advocating beyond that everyone should be afraid? How long should we keep everything shut down? What is an acceptable number of people to force out of their livelihood depriving them of food, shelter and medicine in order to try to slow the spread? What do we do if this is still going around 6 months from now or when it flares up again while we are still reeling from the impact of the initial panic?

This reminds me too much of my partner's mother. She is absolutely useless in an emergency, she panics and freezes up, becomes completely incapable of acting in any useful way and makes whatever situation much worse by getting in the way and distracting everyone else into dealing with her instead of doing something useful. Panic is never helpful, it fixes nothing, it stirs everybody up into a helpless frenzy and prevents rational thought. Panic is going to make a bad situation far, far more dire.

[vodka]

They leave to die.

https://youtu.be/7z-_v1H23Qo

Brief trancription.

We have order of our superiors.To  leave to die  elder people because we haven't sufficient respirators. But after in TV, they said that have to protect elder people(Hospital "Puerta de Hierro",Madrid 18/03/2020)

[bsfeechannel]

How long should we keep everything shut down?

Long enough not to overcrowd the ICUs.

What is an acceptable number of people to force out of their livelihood depriving them of food, shelter and medicine in order to try to slow the spread?

Shut the eff down. Don't waste your time discussing.

Panic is going to make a bad situation far, far more dire.

The mortality rate in South Korea is 0.97%, while in Italy is 7.94%. It seems that "panicking" is the right approach.

[VK3DRB]

If you, dear foreigner, want to visit Australia soon you now have no hope according to this boofhead...
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-19/coronavirus-non-resident-travel-ban-australia/12071640

The Australian govt is in now panic mode. Ad-hoc announcements and no planning.  The Home Affairs website is overloaded. This shock announcement means Chinese students who are not residents won't be coming here to return to their studies in the foreseeable future. People with visas to get married within a certain time frame may never be allowed in this country and they won't get their $6K visa fees back (I know someone in that predicament). It is illegal to congregate with more than 100 people in this state, and yet the huge casino is exempt.

It is a complete debacle.

[not1xor1]

mr Erdogan has found a new weapon
Turkey is one of the main manufacturers of respiratory protective devices in the world, they can produce millions of pieces per day, but are blocking exports even if they currently have no need for them.
Hungary instead is just seizing those devices in transit.

Here is the newspaper article (translated via google)

[iMo]

Wuhan reports 0 new cases today.
They have new cases coming from abroad, however..

Reuters:

Beijing saw a record number of imported coronavirus cases, data released on Thursday showed, as new local transmissions in China fell to zero, putting more pressure on the capital to screen out infected passengers and isolate suspected cases.

[paulca]

Yes I'm familiar with this, but why are we so lax about the flu when it kills so many thousands so predictably every year?

Because the majority of people in the US can't afford to go to hospital for the flu.  It would bankrupt them.  So they don't.  The "sweat it out" and pass it on hoping they can get away with it.  Most of them probably have to go to work because if they take a day off they don't get paid, take 2 off and they most likely get fired.

So I'm looking at it from the outside.  Tell me the above isn't true... for the majority and definitely those in lower paid jobs with no medical insurance.

What are the "deaths from flu" per capita of the US compared to the rest of the western world?

[paulca]

Coming from a govt agency, it is estimated that 6300 deaths can be attributed to flu in the 2018-2019 period in Spain. Covid toll seems above 600 now.

A normal flu doesn't erupt in this shape of curve. And this virus has managed to kill in 2 weeks 1/10 what a normal flu will kill in 52 weeks.

How this is going to go is...
But the flu kills 10 times what Covid19 does!
...
But the flu kills 5 times what Covid19 does!
But the flu kills twice what Covid19 does!
But the flu kills the same number as Covid19 does!
...

Oh.  Sorry.

But covid19 killed 10 times what flu did this year.

[maginnovision]

Yes I'm familiar with this, but why are we so lax about the flu when it kills so many thousands so predictably every year?

Because the majority of people in the US can't afford to go to hospital for the flu.  It would bankrupt them.  So they don't.  The "sweat it out" and pass it on hoping they can get away with it.  Most of them probably have to go to work because if they take a day off they don't get paid, take 2 off and they most likely get fired.

So I'm looking at it from the outside.  Tell me the above isn't true... for the majority and definitely those in lower paid jobs with no medical insurance.

What are the "deaths from flu" per capita of the US compared to the rest of the western world?

https://championtraveler.com/news/the-us-flu-season-is-bad-this-year-but-influenza-is-still-way-more-deadly-around-the-world/

It's likely fewer people would die of the flu if they took it more seriously. I really don't think it's a matter of cost. Literally anyone can go to an ER and be treated regardless of insurance or even an ID.

[Electro Detective]

How about assholes  stop visiting this thread if they have nothing to say.

Yes, please.

What's there to say when it's getting pretty obvious by now, even to the idiot hoarders    what's going on   

The lack of dunny paper is what assholes want to say, they have Rights too 

[SerieZ]

Because the majority of people in the US can't afford to go to hospital for the flu.  It would bankrupt them.  So they don't.  The "sweat it out" and pass it on hoping they can get away with it.  Most of them probably have to go to work because if they take a day off they don't get paid, take 2 off and they most likely get fired.

I never quite understood why people believe this?
While not on a Federal Level, most US States have laws that the employer must provide sick leave and even those who dont most have an arrangement with their employer anyways.
It is always the people who have never lived in the US and/or hold a steady Job who make up these claims... same with healthcare. 

The only thing that the US does different than Switzerland, to my knowledge, is that Switzerland forces you to get healthcare (if you dont have one you cant get a job) to prevent the dummies to fall flat on their faces. And I have lived in Spain and Germany (periods longer than 2 years) to know that their "holy" Universal Healthcare system sucks compared to the Swiss and probably the US.
 

[flyte]

The flue kills between 10,000 and 20,000 people every year in the USA. That's around 30-60 people every day, some of them quite young, when I was a kid one of my little brother's friends died of the flu when he was 8 or 9. Jim Henson died of the flu when he was 53. The flu is very dangerous and potentially quite lethal, we have a safe, fairly effective, readily available and inexpensive vaccine and yet we have countless people too lazy to get vaccinated and others who actively refuse to be vaccinated.

Most people are not saying that Covid-19 is harmless but rather it is not drastically more dangerous than the flu and yet the reaction is about 10 orders of magnitude more severe, I've never in my life seen this kind of hype around an infectious disease, and I'd like to see a bit of it spread out to other deadly diseases and less panic overall. The economic fallout of the panic is going to be far more harmful ultimately than the disease itself.

It does, but there seems to be a very real difference here. Above all the infection speed and long incubation period combo, which is taking all health care services worldwide by surprise. When this will be over, notwithstanding all measures taken, mortality rate will likely be a multiple higher than flu. By now it is clear older people are very much at risk, but younger people make it rapidly to the ER departments as well, which doesn't say anything about their survival rate or their quality of recovery. Do you find it reassuring you have a high chance of survival given your age, but you may end up in the intensive care? Not something to look forward to. Especially if there is a risk all beds all full! It could be that one year from now, figures will be similar to flu figures even though I'd expect it to be multiples, eventually. But for now it is very clear the best one can classify this would be "a very aggressive flu on steroids". Just the speed aspect of it, ignoring all other unknowns for now, is a threat to public health.

[Cerebus]

Are you sure?
There is a HUGE spike in deaths in every country in december/january. Take this data from the UK for example

1) You're quoting "all causes" mortality - UK health statistics are good enough that you can actually find not just Influenza deaths, but cases by diagnosed Influenza serotype. (Official Statistics: Weekly national flu reports: 2019 to 2020 season)
2) Your HUGE spike in all causes mortality is, in fact, a moderate bump - with winter peak mortality is, at 1600 a day in January versus 1200 a day in July, a mere 10% higher than the annualised average death rate and only 20% more than the minimum rate. Presumably if asked whether you wanted a 'normal' size meal or a 'HUGE' size meal you wouldn't be disappointed when your 'HUGE' meal only turned out to be a mere 10% bigger?

In January dayly deaths are more than 400 the normal, this is 12000 more in one month Take that for an increase in the curve.

Since when did the minimum become "the normal"?

[2N3055]

Because the majority of people in the US can't afford to go to hospital for the flu.  It would bankrupt them.  So they don't.  The "sweat it out" and pass it on hoping they can get away with it.  Most of them probably have to go to work because if they take a day off they don't get paid, take 2 off and they most likely get fired.

I never quite understood why people believe this?
While not on a Federal Level, most US States have laws that the employer must provide sick leave and even those who dont most have an arrangement with their employer anyways.
It is always the people who have never lived in the US and/or hold a steady Job who make up these claims... same with healthcare. 

The only thing that the US does different than Switzerland, to my knowledge, is that Switzerland forces you to get healthcare (if you dont have one you cant get a job) to prevent the dummies to fall flat on their faces. And I have lived in Spain and Germany (periods longer than 2 years) to know that their "holy" Universal Healthcare system sucks compared to the Swiss and probably the US.
 

You are confusing paid medical leave ( I was home for a week and still got paid ) with medical bills.

How about bad migraine, you take an over the counter pain killer, you have weird sensation, you call ambulance, they take you to hospital, doctor looks at you for a minute, gives you one injection, and after half an hour your're ok and you go home. A week later you get bill from a hospital for 6500 USD for "services rendered".
I had medical, so they sorted that out.  That is how it was around 1999-2000 in USA. And medical didn't mean dental. You had to get that insurance extra, so you don't have to pay few hundred USD for a minor repair on a tooth.
I don't know how Obamacare works now, but it used to be, basically, you die or pay. Or they treat you and than you go bankrupt.