Covid 19 virus

[hamster_nz]

The epidemic (or pandemic) is already out of control. It is spreading in communities at exponential rate. Such exponential spread can only stop when majority of the population (on the order of magnitude of 50%) gets immunity either through contracting the disease or through vaccination.

There is a third option.. change the environment to reduce transmission to less than one new case per infection, and wait for everybody to get better. The better you do this, the quicker it will drop.

Wash you hands, keep your distance from others, and stay at home if sick.

I'm sure you agree that it appears to have worked for China - they aren't vaccinated nor have 750M+ people been infected.

As for tracking test results... In open countries, like the US, there is the limit on how many positive tests the country can report each day (determined by the number of available test kits, lab throughput, qualification criteria determined by bureaucrats, etc.).

  - there is just a lack of willingness to do so. A resistance to the decentralization of power.

[vad]

The epidemic (or pandemic) is already out of control. It is spreading in communities at exponential rate. Such exponential spread can only stop when majority of the population (on the order of magnitude of 50%) gets immunity either through contracting the disease or through vaccination.

There is a third option.. change the environment to reduce transmission to less than one new case per infection, and wait for everybody to get better. The better you do this, the quicker it will drop.

Wash you hands, keep your distance from others, and stay at home if sick.

I'm sure you agree that it appears to have worked for China - they aren't vaccinated nor have 750M+ people been infected.

Because of what we know about the virus (asymptomatic spread, and that the virus can survive for many days outside the host) - I don’t believe that R0 can be dropped below 1.0 by hygiene and social isolation measures alone.

As for China’s numbers - it’s plain BS. Unless entire China is locked up in quarantine (from Shanghai to the smallest village), I don’t believe in those numbers.

[edy]

It is because the majority of cases are misconstrued as a common cold or flu, and there are not enough testing kits available, that nobody can really know whether they actually DO have a common cold/flu (which has a 0.5% mortality or lower) or if they have COVID-19 (with it's 3%+ mortality). Therefore, community spread is inevitable if life goes on as usual. The majority of the population will continue to work through a cold and possibly a flu, spreading it to everyone else in their workplace, or students in school, going to social gatherings and so on.

One thing COVID-19 has demonstrated is that it is very contagious and while not particularly deadly (compared to SARS 10%, MERS 50%, Ebola 90% and so on) the fact that it can disseminate to so many people over a short rate of time, and has several times the death rate of the flu (although the number may be overblown because we don't include milder unknown cases), it can still be devastating to our healthcare systems. We already have 30,000 - 60,000 people die each year from the flu, despite vaccination attempts and only a 0.5% mortality (somewhere less than 1% and some say as little as 0.1%).

Now we have a virus that is known to be more deadly than flu by at least several times (estimates vary from 2-3x to over 10x) and absolutely no vaccine, no immunity, and added ON TOP OF all the other cold/flu viruses still out there. So we are battling multiple viruses and particularly nasty ones at that superimposed on each other. Yes the majority of people will be fine but those that aren't will completely overload our healthcare systems. To prevent the collateral damage and keep healthcare systems intact for all the other problems people face, these somewhat draconian measures are the only way to help delay/prevent the inevitable... so at least things "ease in" a little more slowly. Will it cause the "case growth rate" to plateau and reach <1.0x, probably not. But lower rate is better than higher.

[DrG]

Today....
EU-US travel banned restricted for 30 Days.
NBA cancels all games after tonight until ?

Seems like it was just a few days ago, it was "I'm not worried at all" and "I've heard we will have a vaccine in 3-4 months".

I don't think it is panic at all, I think that denial and wishful thinking eventually gives way to the harshness of reality. Still, I am optimistic, I think that, in the US, by May, we will be seeing a very different picture.

Like you and everyone else, there are only a few things that I can do and not do, but I can assure you that I am going to hold those that I believe have performed in, what I can only describe as shamefully incompetent manner, accountable...in the voting booth.

[james_s]

If this panic keeps up, it won't be too long before we'll have an economic disaster bad enough that nobody will care about a virus anymore, they'll start taking any job they can get to put food on the table.

[Bud]

As for China’s numbers - it’s plain BS. Unless entire China is locked up in quarantine (from Shanghai to the smallest village), I don’t believe in those numbers.

Dear armchair foreign dictatorship governments expert,

can you fix the chaos and shit in your own backyard before embarking on a global war on reports from other countries?

For a reason I think you can't.

[raptor1956]

I wonder when the other shoe is going to drop in the USA and likely in many other nations that have dropped the ball on this virus.  We've been hearing about testing kits in the millions for a while now but still the number of people tested in the US in total is less than other parts of the world test in a day.  The lawyer at the center of the New Rochelle outbreak commuted to Manhattan on public transportation for days after being effected so it seems highly likely that NYC will see an outbreak far greater the New Rochelle.

The fact that face masks are hard to come by and that medical professionals are finding them hard to get is stark testimony to the shortsightedness of too many these days -- how is it that they have so little stock of items that are critical in times like this.  Sadly, the response was not ... we need more masks ASAP ...  it was ... you don't need them -- tell that to the Chinese.  When you lie to the public but do so for what seems to be a reasonable cause you are still lying to the public.  The idea that a virus that you get by breathing in exhaled droplets is unaffected by wearing is mask is ludicrous and those that say that lose there credibility.  This is not the time for medical professionals to lose credibility.

In western nations where money matters more than life there are many workers that either go to work or go without a paycheck and risk losing there job -- for them the decision is simple ... if I'm still ambulatory I'm going to work.  Business owners are not inclined to increase paid time off, even big businesses worth a trillion.  If people at risk keep going to work when them should stay home because staying home means losing a paycheck or a job then the idea of social isolation is but a joke.

But as bad as all that is the fact that we may well be at this place for 6 months or even more than a year will be a test of the planet right up there with the World Wars, indeed, this is a third World War of sorts.


Brian

[DrG]

If this panic keeps up, it won't be too long before we'll have an economic disaster bad enough that nobody will care about a virus anymore, they'll start taking any job they can get to put food on the table.

I'm not trying to pick a fight or even be horribly contentious, but what is panic and what is an[IN]excusable lack of planning, implementation and clear and concise direction?

To me, buying up sanitizer is NOT panic, it is entirely rational. Communicating sound changes in "public" hygiene is not panic. Explaining why washing your hands is so important, is not panic. Trying to force people to not touch their face, and thinking that is going to make the difference - is poor messaging - especially since we can all watch video of the people telling us not to touch your face actually touching their face as they are telling us not to do so (it is really hard for humans not to touch their face and that is hardly news).

Botching up testing instead of ramping up capability in the FREAKING MONTH that we had and after earlier experience (SARS) [https://www.factcheck.org/2020/03/the-facts-on-coronavirus-testing/ ]is not panic, it is a failure in performance.

Botching up the messaging around testing and botching up anything remotely like a reasonable communication of facts, and instead changing the message evry few days, contradicting what was stated earlier and doing it over and over again is not, in itself panic, it creates confusion and chaos and.....panic.

Planning on the fly for something like this is not going to cut it.

[hamster_nz]

If you are interested in looking at the family tree of the COVID-19 causing virus, along with where it came from or spread to then have I been shown the site for you!

https://nextstrain.org/ncov

[VK3DRB]

If this panic keeps up, it won't be too long before we'll have an economic disaster bad enough that nobody will care about a virus anymore, they'll start taking any job they can get to put food on the table.

We can blame ourselves. For two reasons:

1. We now have a supply problem because we exploited cheap labour and slave labour in China for years so we can get more stuff for less money and no conscience. I try to buy Australian made wherever possible. But with electronic components, that is impossible because nothing is made here. Hard to believe we once made transistors and 7400 series IC's right here in Melbourne. https://www.radiomuseum.org/dsp_hersteller_detail.cfm?Company_id=14523

2. We were warned for the last 10 years by scientists that a global pandemic was imminent, and that global travel would be a major factor for a perfect storm. Almost no-one listened. This virus should be of no surprise really. Its a bit bloody late now. I listened to the pandemic warnings, hence I have plenty of masks I bought FIVE YEARS AGO.  It was our Prime Minister Scott Morrison's stupid comments that triggered the panic buying of toilet paper and other necessities.

[raptor1956]

1. We now have a supply problem because we exploited cheap labour and slave labour in China for years so we can get more stuff for less money and no conscience.

What slave labor? I'm not aware of any other than mandatory labor in jails, which they get paid significantly less than open labor market.

Interestingly, by some accounts there are more slaves in the USA today than during the height of slavery.  Many are domestic workers working in the homes of the wealthy, many are sex workers tricked into it, many others are forced to work in small and medium sized business -- many coming from China but Central America as well.  So, comments about slavery in China seem a bit misplaced when the western world is not without its issues.


Brian

[edy]

It looks like Tom Hanks and his spouse have COVID-19 acquired when shooting a film in Australia (Dave I hope you are staying safe):

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/11/entertainment/tom-hanks-rita-wilson-coronavirus/index.html



Once Kevin Bacon gets it... all of Hollywood is screwed!!!   

https://oracleofbacon.org/

[BravoV]

I try to buy Australian made wherever possible.

Boomerang ? 

Genuine Aborigin's made is much more expensive, there must be cheaper China made alternative too tight ?

[Electro Detective]

It looks like Tom Hanks and his spouse have COVID-19 acquired when shooting a film in Australia (Dave I hope you are staying safe):

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/11/entertainment/tom-hanks-rita-wilson-coronavirus/index.html



Once Kevin Bacon gets it... all of Hollywood is screwed!!!   

https://oracleofbacon.org/

Filming in Australia on the cheap during a worldwide outbreak, is like a box of chocolates.. 

[Moshly]

If you want no BS reporting I seriously suggest everybody check out Dr. John Campbell on youtube

update from the 11th ->

[VK3DRB]

I try to buy Australian made wherever possible.

Boomerang ? 

Genuine Aborigin's made is much more expensive, there must be cheaper China made alternative too tight ?

Try furniture. You pay more, get much better quality and the furniture is not fumigated. Quality is remembered long after the price is forgotten.

[Cerebus]

The subway is crowd enough to crush people into pancakes. That I learned the hard way on line 4.

Somebody cover blueskull in butter and maple syrup, then perhaps the 'merkins will like him. 

[donotdespisethesnake]

If you want no BS reporting I seriously suggest everybody check out Dr. John Campbell on youtube

update from the 11th ->

I like Dr John's style, very informative. Some of his maths is wrong but that's a minor quibble.

[Kjelt]

You can't stop it anymore, everyone will get it sooner or later.
The only thing is to keep the numbers steady without extreme outburst that overflow the healthcare system,
so that for those vulnerable who really need good healthcare they still can get it.

[donotdespisethesnake]

There is a saying the Generals are always fighting the last war, the same is true here. The epidemic action plans for emerging new diseases are based on experience with MERS, SARS, etc, but Covid-19 is not SARS or MERS.

It is expected that novel pathogens are detected in animal populations first, these are culled before animal to human transmission occurs. That did not happen with Covid-19, human-human transmission seem to appear out of nowhere. It is expected that contact tracing and screening travellers is sufficient for containment, that didn't work with Covid-19.

Missteps were certainly made by several countries handling the outbreak, but many people are blaming them for poor planning or execution, when the real problem is the particular viral characteristics don't match what was planned for. Hopefully we will learn for the next time.

Unfortunately, natural selection will always create things that evade our attempts to control them, it's what Nature does and she has had billions of years of practice.

[DBecker]

Interestingly, by some accounts there are more slaves in the USA today than during the height of slavery.  Many are domestic workers working in the homes of the wealthy, many are sex workers tricked into it, many others are forced to work in small and medium sized business -- many coming from China but Central America as well.  So, comments about slavery in China seem a bit misplaced when the western world is not without its issues.

You should mix up the news sources you believe.

There are very few workers trapped in those conditions.  Sure, they show up in the news, but that is because they are the rare exception rather than the rule.  And media (rightly) puts the stories at the top (complete with clickbait headlines for weeks).

H1B workers are much more numerous, but that is far from slavery.  Just exploitation.

[whalphen]

Another day, another data point as the virus steadily marches up the exponential curve here in the US.  As of yesterday fear has suddenly prompted policy makers into action.  There are new international travel restrictions.  Universities are closing.  Grade schools are winding down activities and telling parents to prepare for closures.  Finally we have policy makers responding.  Unfortunately, it may be too late.  There are still lots of misleading instructions and advice being put out by community, press, and government leaders.  Still many are saying the risk is low.  Clearly few understand what 'exponential' means.  If they did, they would see that on the current growth track the spread could result in about a million deaths in the US by about 30 days from now.

[unknownparticle]

Also, let's not forget about ~40,000 traffic fatalities each year (USA) that we are completely OK with...

Traffic accidents aren't infectious though, just a matter of human error, coincidence and statistical events.  I did have to check that figure as I gasped when I read it!!  There are less than 2000 annually in the UK and given that the population of the USA is about 5 times that of the UK, it makes that number horrific!  Especially as we have massively more congested roads, higher highway speed limits and generally more aggressive drivers. Does it include gunshot road rage victims?

[vodka]

Today, The  "Galapagar Marquise's and Equalty Minister has given positive in COVID19 and her couple the Galapagar Marquess's and 4th viceminister is at quarantine. The trouble is this couple may have infected  to 23 minister the three viceministes , the president , until the Queen and the King.  On resume, we are on a ship without captain.

Furthermore, the chinese have fear the spaniards and they begi to run away to China .

[iMo]

https://www.outsideonline.com/2410336/everest-china-side-closes-coronavirus