Hi Dave,
when watching your video, I was a bit struggling with the assumption of having a 50 Ohm cable. I recall when I tried to repair a broken cable of a probe many years ago, that the inner conductor was thin as a hair. This would rather give an impedance of 120 Ohms or so. (~0.1mm inner conductor, ~2mm outer conductor). I believe they use this higher impedance cable to decrease overall capacitance, especially in the 10:1 mode.
This would change the values a bit. The capacitance of the 1.2m cable would be more like 50pF and the inductance 730nH. Together with the compensation capacitor & a bit of stray capacitance we come into the direction of your measured value.
How much this will change your simulation, I have no working spice currently. But I tried unsuccessfully to use a VNA/Distance-to-Fault measurement with one of my probes with a potentiometer at the end - to adjust to the line impedance, but no luck - it was almost no difference what I connected to the other end. And yes , I was in the 1:1 position.
thanks for the great video & best regards from the other side were its now cold & wet.
Juergen