EEVblog #938 - Tesla Solar Roofs - Are They Viable?

[sibeen]

Construction companies will adopt, and sell it, because it makes sense, because that is what the people will want.

Construction companies have had many years to adopt this technology. They haven't. It puts up the price of construction; they ain't going to touch it with a bargepole.

Just because the Tesla name has been attached to this won't change that economics.

[StuUK]

Construction companies only adopt things that make the build cheaper (for them)/easier or are mandated by building codes....

[Brumby]

I've often said building underground is one of the most energy efficient concepts.  Just put a solar freaking roadway over the top - and we're done!

[Fungus]

Construction companies only adopt things that make the build cheaper (for them)/easier or are mandated by building codes....

  If that was true then they'd only ever build windowless concrete bunkers.

Construction companies want to maximize profit, not to build the cheapest house possible. They'll happily add expensive things that increase the perceived value of a house.

Tesla (and Toyota) have already done this with their electric cars: Buying a Prius Or Tesla makes no sense economically, you're never going to recover the purchase cost in saved fuel. Those cars still sell by the bucketload. They sell more Teslas in Norway than all of Ford's models combined and Teslas cost over $100,000 in Norway.

Similarly iPhones, MacBooks, etc. At's much more about image than economics or the actual product.

If Tesla does a good sales this right then having a Tesla roof will be fashionable among rich people and they'll sell loads, there's no doubt about that.

[tszaboo]

Just because the Tesla name has been attached to this won't change that economics.

Tablet was introduced by Microsoft, with windows xp. Nobody cares.
Table introduced by Apple, with iOS. "revolutionary". We know the story.

There have been electric cars ~ hundred year ago. I've seen it in the museum. Now, tell me who made the electric car story a success?

[Fungus]

Just because the Tesla name has been attached to this won't change that economics.

Tablet was introduced by Microsoft, with windows xp. Nobody cares.

They even had the exact same name. Remember the "iPaq"? That was produced long before Apple decided to make anything pocketable.



And Microsoft still can't manage to sell their stuff today. There's (probably) nothing wrong with Microsoft tablets except they're not 'cool' enough for the hipsters.

The same goes for laptops. If you're prepared to pay $1500+ for a laptop then there's non-Apple laptops that make the Apple offerings look like pieces of junk. Apple laptops sell like hot cakes though. Go to any classroom and count how many Apple machines you see compared to all the others. Makes no sense, but there it is. 

[cavac]

- Solar freaking FLOOR TILES!  Tile your entire house in solar, great for the bathroom/shower too!
- Solar freaking DRIVEWAYS!
- Solar freaking POOLS! Put solar panels at the bottom of your pool, after all it has a built in lens effect to magnify the solar radiation!  Hmm that might not be a terrible idea on first thought. I should patent that.

Ok, let's add a bunch of batterizers and make them work at 800% efficieny!!!

 

[b_force]

Yes, completely true. The world is overpopulated. Ressources are not lasting. We need to reduce drastically the population, that is the "easiest" measure.

Which method do you have in mind to achieve this? Plague? War?

We, humans, will have to do something about overpopulation eventually, why not start now? I would hope that people that did not want to do anything about it, due to some stupid political or religious agendas, got eaten first when we end up on this planet like a bunch of hungry rats in a metal barrel.

That IS exactly my point.
We can build solar roofs, super uber sustainable other resources and many more things.
All absolutely great and awesome from engineering, artistic and scientific point of views.
However, it's is very far from a proper argument to safe 'the planet' (aka, saving our own asses), because that's not gonna happen this way.
Next point is that we can safe a bit on energy here and there, if there are still a handful of big countries who consume and waste over 1/3 of the total amount, it's still not doing anything.
Big deal that some countries have to safe a few percent on freaking little plastic bags. Compared to the general waste of these other countries and factories it's absolutely microscopic.

[aw_ful]

So many comments, on the pre-existence of solar roofing, on the efficiency of the tiles, of the issue with installation, that there better ways to capture energy by using water, of the issues of costs, that it is not fully green. The thing he announced is not related to any of those comments. What he announced is a fully integrated system that (mostly) becomes self-sustaining personal supply of energy.  It has nothing to do with low cost as he is appealing, like Tesla (for now), to deep pocketed people, and to whom aesthetics is a major concern. He is not concerned with tile efficiencies, because he has their mammoth roofs to work with. He is not concerned with material or installation costs because a premium roof already is expensive. What I hear is the ability to never waste time going to a gas station, using a car with less complexity and therefore better reliability that refills itself, making driving an almost inconsequential electrical cost that doesn't degrade the environment (as much), making solar broadly available to a multitude of home uses so that it becomes personally economically feasible, and maybe the ability to stop subsidizing electrical infrastructure and nuclear power plants for heavy users like heavy industry and commercial, and just maybe then reducing the human energy footprint on the earth. Ultimately, he closed the day/night/storage loop with these tiles AND Powerwall (not possible separately), making it economically possible, meaning maybe someday never having to attach or having to have a grid at all.

[Someone]

Tesla (and Toyota) have already done this with their electric cars: Buying a Prius Or Tesla makes no sense economically, you're never going to recover the purchase cost in saved fuel. Those cars still sell by the bucketload. They sell more Teslas in Norway than all of Ford's models combined and Teslas cost over $100,000 in Norway.

The cost effectiveness of electric or hybrid cars varies wildly around the world, Norway has some of the worlds most expensive fuel (petrol/diesel) costs and cheap electricity. But to further convince the public to purchase plug in electric vehicles they also piled on huge monetary incentives:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plug-in_electric_vehicles_in_Norway
So its cheaper to own an electric car in that case and everyone is rushing to do so.

While in other markets the incremental cost of a Prius C over the Yaris its derived from is roughly the savings in fuel use over the lifespan of the vehicle, priced to match the market and not the obvious failing you suggest. They have their markets and uses, but they're not solutions for everyone worldwide.

[NiHaoMike]

Electrical supply has multiple challenges.
1)Most of renewable energy are not stable in term of electricity generation. Exception - hydropower, it is plainly perfect. Solar has issues at cloudy weather, winter, night. Wind - depends.
(Battery storage of energy economics/longevity/environmental impact are terrible, molten salt for solar/hydro storage is much more promising)
2)Some supplies has drawbacks, for example some nuclear power cannot change output enough fast for fluctuating power consumption during the day. (not load following) Some are load following, but cannot compensate enough fast events such as "TV pickup".
This means you need some very quick "maneuvering" capacity, and if you don't have hydropower, this means thermal plants (gas/coal), just to supply enough energy to provide sufficient power.
It is serious problem, and very interesting indeed, i suggest read about TV pickup in wikipedia.

The underdeveloped (part of) the solution is to try to adapt demand to supply. The technology for it has been available and affordable for many years, there's just a lack of development and standards that keeps it from being widely deployed.

The "TV pickup" problem is becoming a problem of the past now that on demand content (Netflix, Youtube, etc.) is the norm.

Tesla (and Toyota) have already done this with their electric cars: Buying a Prius Or Tesla makes no sense economically, you're never going to recover the purchase cost in saved fuel.

While the current Teslas are indeed unlikely to pay back (that's not the point of owning one), good hybrids most certainly can. That's particularly true for those who drive a lot, especially commercial usage.

[b_force]

So many comments, on the pre-existence of solar roofing, on the efficiency of the tiles, of the issue with installation, that there better ways to capture energy by using water, of the issues of costs, that it is not fully green. The thing he announced is not related to any of those comments. What he announced is a fully integrated system that (mostly) becomes self-sustaining personal supply of energy.  It has nothing to do with low cost as he is appealing, like Tesla (for now), to deep pocketed people, and to whom aesthetics is a major concern. He is not concerned with tile efficiencies, because he has their mammoth roofs to work with. He is not concerned with material or installation costs because a premium roof already is expensive. What I hear is the ability to never waste time going to a gas station, using a car with less complexity and therefore better reliability that refills itself, making driving an almost inconsequential electrical cost that doesn't degrade the environment (as much), making solar broadly available to a multitude of home uses so that it becomes personally economically feasible, and maybe the ability to stop subsidizing electrical infrastructure and nuclear power plants for heavy users like heavy industry and commercial, and just maybe then reducing the human energy footprint on the earth. Ultimately, he closed the day/night/storage loop with these tiles AND Powerwall (not possible separately), making it economically possible, meaning maybe someday never having to attach or having to have a grid at all.

Tesla aims for a very niche market, yes.
Isn't that EXTREMELY obvious?

That's also the whole problem. Because they kind of pretend they have solved a world problem.

Even today there are still people who could never ever afford something like this.
In fact, they even struggle to survive on a daily basis. Do you think they even care about how they get their energy, from solar, wind-turbines or the filthiest way of burning something?
They are glad they have at least something.

If you look at the numbers, that is at least roughly 30% of the world population (if not (much) more)
 

[Fungus]

Isn't that EXTREMELY obvious?

Hopefully.

That's also the whole problem. Because they kind of pretend they have solved a world problem.

No they don't. They act like they're showing the first generation of a nice new product that they're proud of (rightly so - it's a beautiful product with some really good engineering underneath, some real hard work has gone into it).

How the press is reporting it? Well, that's the press for you. Look at the press Batteroo got even though they're a pair of suits with no working product.

[tszaboo]

Tesla aims for a very niche market, yes.
Isn't that EXTREMELY obvious?

That's also the whole problem. Because they kind of pretend they have solved a world problem.

Even today there are still people who could never ever afford something like this.

Musk said, that the technology he is developing is for the mass market. But you cannot just enter the mass market, because that doesn't work. He is entering the top market, sell stuff, mature the technology, drives down the cost. After that you enter mass market. Take the Tesla model 3 for example. It is priced 35000 dollar, almost the same than the new price of the car I own. It is not a car for CEOs, not 70.000 like the mode s. It is not the roadster's 100.000 dollar price tag.
The business model seems to work. Probably in a decade, solar roof price will be brought down 1/3. Just let the technology mature. This is for the premium segment, the statement is more important than price or efficiency. This is the roadster. Wait for the S and the 3.

[zapta]

I've often said building underground is one of the most energy efficient concepts.  Just put a solar freaking roadway over the top - and we're done!

The cost of the periscopes can be significant though.

[XynxNet]

From a home owners perspective:
Will I get a replacement shingle in 20 years?
Good traditional shingles have a lifetime up to 80 years here.

[Brumby]

I've often said building underground is one of the most energy efficient concepts.  Just put a solar freaking roadway over the top - and we're done!

The cost of the periscopes can be significant though.

I'd go for a WiFi Camera (with PTZ) up a pole, powered by a solar panel and battery.

[lpickup]

From a home owners perspective:
Will I get a replacement shingle in 20 years?
Good traditional shingles have a lifetime up to 80 years here.

What type of shingles are "traditional" in your area?

Here, the standard is asphalt shingles that are labeled as "30 year", but you'd be lucky to get 20 out of them.  You can buy premium "40 year" shingles.  I have never heard of 80 years, so you must be talking about some kind of slate tile shingle or something like that?

At any rate, other than physical damage from micrometeorites or a stray fly ball from a neighbor's baseball game, the durability of these shingles is something I wold expect to far EXCEED the standard shingles installed in my area.

[coppice]

From a home owners perspective:
Will I get a replacement shingle in 20 years?
Good traditional shingles have a lifetime up to 80 years here.

What type of shingles are "traditional" in your area?

Here, the standard is asphalt shingles that are labeled as "30 year", but you'd be lucky to get 20 out of them.  You can buy premium "40 year" shingles.  I have never heard of 80 years, so you must be talking about some kind of slate tile shingle or something like that?

At any rate, other than physical damage from micrometeorites or a stray fly ball from a neighbor's baseball game, the durability of these shingles is something I wold expect to far EXCEED the standard shingles installed in my area.

Musk was showing off replacements for slate and ceramic tiles. These, and other rigid tiles - e.g. concrete, are usually good for at least 50 years, and 80 is not unusual.

Continued supply of compatible tiles is an important factor. Many people need to undertake small localised repairs to their roof during its life. At the end of the life of the tiles compatibility is much less important. In most cases you can easily use completely different tiles for a fresh new roof.

[tszaboo]

From a home owners perspective:
Will I get a replacement shingle in 20 years?
Good traditional shingles have a lifetime up to 80 years here.

What type of shingles are "traditional" in your area?

Here, the standard is asphalt shingles that are labeled as "30 year", but you'd be lucky to get 20 out of them.  You can buy premium "40 year" shingles.  I have never heard of 80 years, so you must be talking about some kind of slate tile shingle or something like that?

At any rate, other than physical damage from micrometeorites or a stray fly ball from a neighbor's baseball game, the durability of these shingles is something I wold expect to far EXCEED the standard shingles installed in my area.

Well, in Europe, houses usually built with ceramic roof tiles, bricks and they last lifetime.

You are supposed to order some excess, so it can be repaired.

[KM6XZ]

The whole discussion based on a tech version of traditional anything undermines the opportunities by getting away from tradition. Traditional methods were used based on the technology limitations if 300 years ago. When cars first became available regulations stifled development because they were assumed to be horse drawn carts without the horse so required some of the same policies that carriages were covered by in the late 1800s in US and European cities.
Obviously Musk was thinking of North America as the first target audience, lower volume at high price as the while the production technology ramps up to mass production and evolutionary changes. Just as he did with the Tesla cars, starting with the roadster for rich early adopters who were a small enough number they could produce enough to satisfy demand. The Model S is a much higher production vehicle but still small compared to the established auto companies. But ramping up to a couple hundred thousand luxury sedans paved the way to a mass produced affordable $35000 model.
Using the same plan, a replacement for slate and tile roofs with something that might even cost less is a good target audience. In California, a slate roof can easily cost $80-150k and a ceramic tile one can cost $50k. It becomes viable option with less sales resistance for the smaller number of potential customers that a start up can produce for.
After driving a P85s  Model S Tesla I have no doubt that Musk knows his audience better than any car company executive. The US auto industry in the 1960s employed 1 in 7 people in the US and was the largest car industry in the world. In 2015, the total US output of cars was a little over 4 million, a fraction of just 10 years ago, while China produced 24 million up from almost zero 15 years ago. 
Musk's approach of gaining experience before ramping up to lower cost products will likely result in Tesla being the largest car producer in the US in 6-7 years. The same would not be out of the question for the solar roof tiles. Forget about initial cost efficiency, or mass production trying to compete with a mature, stagnant industry, he does not have to have a product that replaces current traditional products...yet, wait for the 3-4 generation of these and see where the volume is. I would bet on Musk in the long term.

[Brumby]

Forget about initial cost efficiency, or mass production trying to compete with a mature, stagnant industry, he does not have to have a product that replaces current traditional products...yet, wait for the 3-4 generation of these and see where the volume is. I would bet on Musk in the long term.

While I agree that it is not wise to condemn an emerging technology on production cost, the fact is that the concept has been out in the field for a number of years - and no-one has made a go of it.  Do we think Elon Musk will do any better?  If so, why?

[Fungus]

Do we think Elon Musk will do any better?  If so, why?

Because he made pretty ones and aimed them at rich people.

(just like the Tesla Roadster)

[Fungus]

Elon Musk has announced that his roof will be cheaper than a traditional roof.

https://electrek.co/2016/11/17/tesla-solar-roof-cost-less-than-regular-roof-even-before-energy-production-elon-musk/

(I guess it will depend on what he classes as a "traditional" roof - not everybody installs fancy slate roofs)

[lpickup]

Yeah, he has GOT to be comparing this to tile/slate roofs.  There is no way this statement is true for asphalt shingles.